Practical Poker Math

3. Odds in Texas Hold’em
Before the Flop
After the hole cards have been dealt and before the Flop
some primary concerns are
1. Relative strength of the hand
2. Likelihood the hand will improve
3. Likely strength of competition
4. Estimated cost to continue in the hand
5. Estimated size of the final pot
6. Possible moves to eliminate competitors.
The section on starting hands gives a good idea of the relative
rarity/strength of certain holdings and the likelihood
that opponents will hold those same hands.
For example, from the discussion on starting hands we can
see that the probability of being dealt a Pocket Pair is 1/17.
The work below reveals that the probability of flopping a Set
or better with a Pair in the hole is 1/8.51. By multiplying
these probabilities it becomes known that only once in
approximately every 145 hands you or any other specific
player will flop a hidden Set.
With an average of 20–40 hands dealt per hour in casino poker
and 50–70 hands dealt per hour in online poker, on average
you will flop a Set or better to a Pocket Pair only once every
4–5 hours in the casino and once every 2–3 hours online.
Important to note from a game theory perspective: On
average, someone at each table (but not necessarily you)
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