MARKET MOVER - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

Table 1: BNP Paribas' Inflation Forecasts
Eurozone
France
US
Headline HICP Ex-tobacco HICP
Headline CPI
Ex-tobacco CPI
CPI Urban SA CPI Urban NSA
Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y
2009 108.1 - 0.3 107.9 - 0.2 119.3 - 0.1 118.0 - 0.1 214.5 - -0.3 214.5 - -0.4
2010 (1) 109.8 - 1.6 109.5 - 1.5 121.1 - 1.5 119.7 - 1.4 218.3 - 1.7 218.2 - 1.7
2011 (1) 111.5 - 1.6 111.1 - 1.5 122.7 - 1.4 121.3 - 1.3 221.5 - 1.5 221.4 - 1.5
Q3 2009 108.0 - -0.4 107.8 - -0.5 119.4 - -0.4 118.1 - -0.4 215.4 - -1.6 215.7 - -1.6
Q4 2009 108.6 - 0.4 108.4 - 0.3 119.7 - 0.4 118.4 - 0.3 216.8 - 1.5 216.2 - 1.4
Q1 2010 108.6 - 1.1 108.3 - 1.0 120.3 - 1.3 119.0 - 1.2 217.6 - 2.4 217.0 - 2.4
Q2 2010 110.0 - 1.5 109.7 - 1.4 121.3 - 1.6 120.0 - 1.5 217.2 - 1.8 218.1 - 1.8
Q3 2010 (1) 109.9 - 1.7 109.5 - 1.6 121.2 - 1.5 119.8 - 1.5 218.1 - 1.3 218.3 - 1.2
Q4 2010 (1) 110.7 - 1.9 110.4 - 1.9 121.4 - 1.5 120.0 - 1.4 220.0 - 1.5 219.3 - 1.5
Q1 2011 (1) 110.5 - 1.8 110.2 - 1.7 121.8 - 1.2 120.4 - 1.2 220.9 - 1.5 220.4 - 1.5
Q2 2011 (1) 111.6 - 1.5 111.2 - 1.4 122.8 - 1.2 121.3 - 1.1 221.3 - 1.9 222.1 - 1.9
Jan 10 108.1 -0.8 1.0 107.75 -0.8 0.9 119.7 -0.2 1.1 118.32 -0.2 1.0 217.6 0.2 2.7 216.69 0.3 2.6
Feb 10 108.4 0.3 0.9 108.10 0.3 0.8 120.4 0.6 1.3 118.99 0.6 1.2 217.6 0.0 2.2 216.74 0.0 2.1
Mar 10 109.4 0.9 1.4 109.09 0.9 1.3 120.9 0.5 1.6 119.58 0.5 1.5 217.7 0.1 2.4 217.63 0.4 2.3
Apr 10 109.9 0.5 1.5 109.58 0.4 1.4 121.3 0.3 1.7 119.90 0.3 1.6 217.6 -0.1 2.2 218.01 0.2 2.2
May 10 110.0 0.1 1.6 109.71 0.1 1.5 121.4 0.1 1.6 120.04 0.1 1.6 217.2 -0.2 2.0 218.18 0.1 2.0
Jun 10 110.0 0.0 1.4 109.70 0.0 1.3 121.4 0.0 1.5 120.02 0.0 1.4 216.9 -0.1 1.1 217.97 -0.1 1.1
Jul 10 109.7 -0.3 1.7 109.31 -0.4 1.7 121.0 -0.3 1.7 119.68 -0.3 1.6 217.6 0.3 1.3 218.01 0.0 1.2
Aug 10 109.9 0.2 1.6 109.54 0.2 1.5 121.3 0.2 1.4 119.97 0.2 1.3 218.2 0.3 1.2 218.31 0.1 1.1
Sep 10 (1) 110.1 0.2 1.8 109.79 0.2 1.7 121.2 -0.1 1.5 119.85 -0.1 1.5 218.7 0.3 1.3 218.71 0.2 1.3
Oct 10 (1) 110.5 0.3 1.9 110.18 0.3 1.9 121.3 0.1 1.5 119.95 0.1 1.5 219.5 0.4 1.5 219.40 0.3 1.5
Nov 10 (1) 110.6 0.1 1.9 110.25 0.1 1.8 121.4 0.0 1.4 119.93 0.0 1.4 219.8 0.1 1.4 219.25 -0.1 1.4
Dec 10 (1) 111.0 0.4 2.0 110.68 0.4 1.9 121.6 0.2 1.4 120.16 0.2 1.3 220.6 0.4 1.6 219.24 0.0 1.5
Jan 11 (1) 110.0 -0.9 1.8 109.68 -0.9 1.8 121.3 -0.3 1.4 119.84 -0.3 1.3 220.8 0.1 1.5 219.91 0.3 1.5
Feb 11 (1) 110.4 0.4 1.9 110.07 0.4 1.8 121.9 0.5 1.3 120.45 0.5 1.2 220.9 0.1 1.5 220.15 0.1 1.6
Mar 11 (1) 111.1 0.6 1.6 110.74 0.6 1.5 122.2 0.3 1.1 120.78 0.3 1.0 221.1 0.1 1.5 221.08 0.4 1.6
Apr 11 (1) 111.4 0.3 1.4 111.05 0.3 1.3 122.6 0.3 1.1 121.10 0.3 1.0 221.2 0.1 1.7 221.66 0.3 1.7
May 11 (1) 111.6 0.2 1.5 111.25 0.2 1.4 122.8 0.2 1.2 121.36 0.2 1.1 221.3 0.0 1.9 222.23 0.3 1.9
Jun 11 (1) 111.7 0.1 1.6 111.36 0.1 1.5 122.9 0.1 1.3 121.49 0.1 1.2 221.4 0.0 2.1 222.54 0.1 2.1
Updated
Next
Release
Sep 23
Sep Flash HICP (Sep 30)
Sep 23
Sep CPI (Oct 13)
Sep 17
Sep CPI (Oct 15)
Source: BNP Paribas, (1) Forecasts
Chart 4: Eurozone Core HICP (% y/y)
Chart 5: US Core CPI (% y/y)
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro
Since printing an all-time low in April, core inflation has been a
touch stronger in recent months, reflecting gains in both core
goods and core services inflation. While we expect core services
inflation to head lower, the rebound in core goods has further to
run. We expect a brief interruption to the downward trend in core.
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro
The downward trend in shelter inflation was recently interrupted
and leading indicators suggest its strength will continue to year
end. The renewed collapse in the housing market should see a
reversion to a downward trend from early next year.
Luigi Speranza/Eoin O’Callaghan
Market Mover
33
23 September 2010
www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com