MARKET MOVER - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

Technical Analysis – Interest Rates & Commodities
Bond & Short-Term Contracts
• Europe 10y: Supportive MT bias again within MT falling channel but needs to break below 2.24 to extend fall
• US 10y: Regained a slight MT positive bias below 2.58 but failure to sustain it would rekindle previous bear tone
• Short-term contracts z0: Supportive tone on ED back on its top but still a toppish/consolidative one on Euribor
Equities & Commodities
• WTI (Cl1): Neutral MT between key 70.76/71.39 & key 78.31/40 but weak ST, back on 73.50/74.00 ST support
• Equity markets: Markets remain supportive MT but showing a ST toppish bias which could last
US 10y: Slight move back below 2.58 pivot reopened way for 2.41 first MT Trend: Neutral/down Range: 2.40/2.65
The break above MT falling wedge 2.03 3.03
(2.21/2.58) was negative & triggered a
classic pullback move on key 2.79 (LT
61.8%) area around which it stalled to be
back now below critical 2.58 (ST 61.8% &
MT falling wedge resistance).
That rekindled the MT bullish bias for 2.415
August low initially but a break below it is
needed to strengthen the previous MT
bullish bias towards 2.03 (2008 low).
A renewed break above 2.58 is needed to
turn slightly negative again, key resistance
above being 2.85/86 (last top & ST 61.8%)
which break would turn it negative again MT
for 3% then.
Tech Snapshot
- Back below 2.58 (ST/MT pivot now)
-Still below key LT 61.8% (2.79) for 2.03 low
- Still a weekly bottom reversal
Strategy: Short 2.58/62 stopped 2.53.
Keep long now if you are below 2.58
US/EUR 10y bond: 6.6 will be ST target if we move back below 22.4 low MT Trend: Neutral/down Range: 10.0/30.0
Failure to overcome MT falling channel
-20.9