MARKET MOVER - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

Key Data Preview
Chart 13: US: PMI Manufacturing Surveys
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro
Sep (f) Aug Jul Jun
Headline index 53.0 56.3 55.5 56.2
Prices Paid 62.0 61.5 57.5 57.0
BNP Paribas Forecast: Down
US: ISM (September)
Release Date: Friday 1 October
We look for the ISM manufacturing index to fall in
September, to 53.0 from 56.3 in August. The new orders
component of the ISM has been declining for three months,
dropping a total of 12.6 points. The September readings of
the Empire and Philly indices point to further deceleration.
On the ISM-adjusted basis, the Philly Fed Index dropped
through the 50 breakeven level in August to 46.3, edging
up only to 46.6 in September. In the meanwhile the ISMadjusted
Empire State index was at 50.3 in August and
moved up to just 50.9. The pace of manufacturing growth is
settling as the inventory cycle cools. Our forecast would
still be consistent with expansion in the sector, albeit at a
much more sustainable pace. Meanwhile we look for the
prices paid index to remain virtually flat as energy prices
have stabilised recently.
Key Point:
The ISM is expected to cool to 53.0 in September, a
pace consistent with much more sustainable
expansion in the sector.
Market Economics 23 September 2010
Market Mover
62
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