MARKET MOVER - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

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Table 2: BNP Paribas' Inflation Forecasts Japan UK Sweden Core CPI SA Core CPI NSA Headline CPI RPI CPI CPIF Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y 2009 100.3 - -1.3 100.3 - -1.3 110.8 - 2.1 213.7 - -0.5 299.7 - -0.3 191.2 - 1.9 2010 (1) 99.2 - -1.1 99.3 - -1.0 114.4 - 3.3 223.3 - 4.5 303.0 - 1.1 194.9 - 1.9 2011 (1) 98.6 - -0.6 98.6 - -0.6 117.2 - 2.4 229.9 - 2.9 309.2 - 2.0 197.2 - 1.2 Q3 2009 99.9 - -2.3 100.1 - -2.3 111.3 - 1.5 214.4 - -1.4 299.5 - -1.2 191.6 - 1.6 Q4 2009 99.7 - -1.8 99.9 - -1.8 112.1 - 2.1 216.9 - 0.6 301.3 - -0.4 193.2 - 2.3 Q1 2010 99.7 - -1.3 99.3 - -1.2 112.9 - 3.2 219.3 - 4.0 301.2 - 1.0 194.0 - 2.6 Q2 2010 99.3 - -1.2 99.3 - -1.2 114.4 - 3.4 223.5 - 5.1 302.8 - 1.1 194.9 - 2.1 Q3 2010 (1) 98.8 - -1.1 99.1 - -1.0 114.7 - 3.0 224.3 - 4.6 302.6 - 1.0 194.6 - 1.6 Q4 2010 (1) 99.1 - -0.6 99.3 - -0.6 115.6 - 3.1 226.3 - 4.3 305.4 - 1.4 195.9 - 1.4 Q1 2011 (1) 98.8 - -0.9 98.4 - -0.9 116.1 - 2.8 227.4 - 3.7 305.2 - 1.3 195.2 - 0.6 Q2 2011 (1) 98.6 - -0.7 98.6 - -0.7 117.1 - 2.4 229.5 - 2.7 308.3 - 1.8 197.0 - 1.0 Jan 10 99.6 -0.1 -1.3 99.2 -0.6 -1.3 112.4 -0.2 3.4 217.9 0.0 3.7 299.8 -0.6 0.6 193.0 -0.2 2.6 Feb 10 99.8 0.2 -1.2 99.2 0.0 -1.2 112.9 0.4 3.0 219.2 0.6 3.7 301.6 0.6 1.2 194.2 0.6 2.7 Mar 10 99.8 0.0 -1.2 99.5 0.3 -1.2 113.5 0.5 3.4 220.7 0.7 4.4 302.3 0.2 1.2 194.7 0.3 2.5 Apr 10 99.3 -0.5 -1.5 99.2 -0.3 -1.5 114.2 0.6 3.7 222.8 1.0 5.3 302.4 0.0 1.0 194.8 0.0 2.2 May 10 99.3 0.0 -1.2 99.3 0.1 -1.2 114.4 0.2 3.3 223.6 0.4 5.1 302.9 0.2 1.2 195.0 0.1 2.1 Jun 10 99.2 -0.1 -1.0 99.3 0.0 -1.0 114.6 0.2 3.2 224.1 0.2 5.0 303.0 0.0 0.9 195.0 0.0 1.9 Jul-10 98.9 -0.3 -1.1 99.0 -0.3 -1.1 114.3 -0.3 3.1 223.6 -0.2 4.8 302.0 -0.3 1.1 194.3 -0.3 1.7 Aug 10 (1) 98.8 -0.1 -1.0 99.1 0.1 -1.0 114.9 0.5 3.1 224.5 0.4 4.7 302.1 0.0 0.9 194.3 0.0 1.4 Sep 10 (1) 98.8 0.0 -1.0 99.2 0.1 -1.0 114.9 0.0 3.0 224.7 0.1 4.4 303.6 0.5 1.1 195.2 0.5 1.5 Oct 10 (1) 99.2 0.4 -0.5 99.6 0.4 -0.5 115.2 0.3 3.1 225.6 0.4 4.4 305.0 0.5 1.3 195.9 0.3 1.5 Nov 10 (1) 99.2 0.0 -0.6 99.3 -0.3 -0.6 115.5 0.2 3.1 226.2 0.3 4.4 305.3 0.1 1.4 196.0 0.1 1.5 Dec 10 (1) 99.0 -0.2 -0.7 99.1 -0.2 -0.7 116.2 0.6 3.2 227.2 0.4 4.2 306.0 0.3 1.4 195.9 -0.1 1.2 Jan 11 (1) 98.9 -0.1 -0.7 98.5 -0.6 -0.7 115.8 -0.3 3.1 226.7 -0.2 4.0 303.7 -0.8 1.3 194.4 -0.7 0.7 Feb 11 (1) 98.8 -0.1 -1.0 98.2 -0.3 -1.0 116.2 0.3 2.9 227.5 0.3 3.8 305.1 0.5 1.2 195.2 0.4 0.5 Mar 11 (1) 98.7 -0.1 -1.1 98.4 0.2 -1.1 116.4 0.2 2.5 228.0 0.2 3.3 306.8 0.6 1.5 196.1 0.4 0.7 Apr 11 (1) 98.6 -0.1 -0.7 98.5 0.1 -0.7 116.8 0.3 2.3 228.7 0.3 2.7 307.8 0.3 1.8 196.7 0.3 1.0 May 11 (1) 98.7 0.1 -0.6 98.7 0.2 -0.6 117.2 0.3 2.4 229.5 0.4 2.7 308.3 0.2 1.8 197.0 0.2 1.0 Jun 11 (1) 98.5 -0.2 -0.7 98.6 -0.1 -0.7 117.3 0.1 2.4 230.2 0.3 2.7 308.9 0.2 1.9 197.2 0.1 1.1 Updated Next Release Sep 16 Aug CPI (Oct 1) Sep 16 Sep CPI (Oct 12) Sep 16 Sep CPI (Oct 12) Source: BNP Paribas, (1) Forecasts Chart 6: Japanese CPI (% y/y) Chart 7: UK CPI (% y/y) Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro Prices are expected to continue falling but the pace of decline is easing as the economy recovers. Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas We expect inflation to remain above target for the remainder of the year, although trending down. Luigi Speranza/Eoin O’Callaghan Market Mover 34 23 September 2010 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Table 3: BNP Paribas' Inflation Forecasts Canada Norway Australia CPI Core CPI Headline CPI Core CPI Core Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y 2009 114.4 0.3 113.6 1.8 125.7 2.2 118.4 2.6 167.8 - 1.8 - - 3.7 2010 (1) 116.5 1.8 115.5 1.6 128.6 2.3 120.0 1.4 173.2 - 3.2 - - 2.7 2011 (1) 118.6 1.8 117.1 1.4 130.4 1.4 121.9 1.5 179.0 - 3.4 - - 2.9 Q3 2009 114.7 0.5 -0.9 113.9 1.2 1.6 125.8 0.0 1.8 118.5 0.0 2.4 168.6 1.0 1.3 - - 3.5 Q4 2009 114.9 0.6 0.8 114.4 1.9 1.6 126.6 0.6 1.4 119.3 0.7 2.3 169.5 0.5 2.1 - - 3.3 Q1 2010 115.4 2.0 1.6 114.9 1.6 1.9 128.4 1.4 2.9 119.4 0.1 2.0 171.0 0.9 2.9 - - 3.1 Q2 2010 116.2 2.6 1.4 115.5 2.3 1.8 129.1 0.6 2.6 120.3 0.8 1.5 172.1 0.6 3.1 - - 2.7 Q3 2010 (1) 117.0 2.7 2.0 115.6 0.3 1.5 128.2 -0.7 1.9 120.0 -0.3 1.2 174.1 1.2 3.3 - - 2.6 Q4 2010 (1) 117.4 1.5 2.2 116.0 1.2 1.4 128.8 0.5 1.7 120.5 0.4 1.0 175.4 0.7 3.5 - - 2.7 Q1 2011 (1) 117.9 1.6 2.1 116.4 1.6 1.4 129.1 0.2 0.5 120.7 0.2 1.1 177.0 0.9 3.5 - - 2.7 Q2 2011 (1) 118.3 1.7 1.9 116.9 1.7 1.2 130.4 1.0 1.0 122.0 1.0 1.4 177.9 0.5 3.4 - - 2.8 Updated Sep 21 Sep 16 Sep 16 Next Release Sep CPI (Oct 22) Sep CPI (Oct 11) Q3 CPI (Oct 27) Source: BNP Paribas, (1) Forecasts Chart 8: Canadian Total Versus Core CPI Chart 9: Australian CPI (% y/y) Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas Wage pressures appear subdued, suggesting that underlying inflation should remain close to the BoC's 2% target. Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas Near-term inflation pressures should be muted but, with the limited spare capacity in the labour market being eroded, underlying inflation is likely to settle near the top of the RBA's target range. CPI Data Calendar for the Coming Week Day GMT Economy Indicator Previous BNPP F’cast Consensus Comment Tue 28/09 Germany CPI (Prel) m/m : Sep 0.0% -0.2% -0.1% Energy and food CPI (Prel) y/y : Sep 1.0% 1.2% 1.3% HICP (Prel) m/m : Sep 0.1% -0.1% -0.2% HICP (Prel) y/y : Sep 1.0% 1.3% 1.3% 09:15 Belgium CPI m/m : Sep 0.1% 0.0% n/a 09:15 CPI y/y : Sep 2.3% 2.6% n/a Wed 29/09 07:00 Spain HICP (Flash) y/y : Sep 1.8% 2.1% 2.1% Thu 30/09 09:00 Eurozone HICP (Flash) y/y : Sep 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% Energy and food 09:00 Italy CPI (NIC, Prel) m/m : Sep 0.2% -0.1% n/a 09:00 CPI (NIC, Prel) y/y : Sep 1.6% 1.7% n/a 09:00 HICP (Prel) m/m : Sep 0.2% 0.7% n/a 09:00 HICP (Prel) y/y : Sep 1.8% 1.7% n/a Fri 01/10 23:30 Japan CPI National y/y : Aug -0.9% -0.9% -0.9% 23:30 Core CPI National y/y : Aug -1.1% -1.0% -1.0% 23:30 CPI Tokyo y/y : Sep -1.0% -0.8% -0.8% 23:30 (30/09) Core CPI Tokyo y/y : Sep -1.1% -1.0% -1.0% Release dates and forecasts as at c.o.b. prior to the date of publication: See Daily Economic Spotlight for any revision Source: BNP Paribas Luigi Speranza/Eoin O’Callaghan Market Mover 35 23 September 2010 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Page 1 and 2: Euromoney Interest Rates Survey 201
Page 3 and 4: ECB on a different page… …but i
Page 5 and 6: developments and is prepared to pro
Page 7 and 8: and property tax payments, dropped
Page 9 and 10: directly to effect outright purchas
Page 11 and 12: Services also on the slide The ‘f
Page 13 and 14: inflation rate is calculated exclud
Page 15 and 16: closer to a more normal level” to
Page 17 and 18: point advance in the June Tankan. P
Page 19 and 20: US: Belly of the Curve is Rich, but
Page 21 and 22: US: A Carry Trade with Extra Potent
Page 23 and 24: MBS: Remain Underweight, GNM CBRs U
Page 25 and 26: EUR: Re-Enter Flatteners on 5y/10y
Page 27 and 28: EGBs: Market Update & Top Trade Ide
Page 29 and 30: EUR Covered Bonds: Market Update
Page 31 and 32: GBP Curve Opportunities Update •
Page 33: Table 1: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
Page 37 and 38: Table 1: BNP Paribas Carry Analysis
Page 39 and 40: have been happy to buy the roll to
Page 41 and 42: Technical Analysis - Interest Rates
Page 43 and 44: Trade Reviews Options, Money Market
Page 45 and 46: ond market attracted huge swathes o
Page 47 and 48: warning to Greek banks that it migh
Page 49 and 50: Chart 2: EUR/SEK - major support be
Page 51 and 52: Economic Calendar: 24 Sep - 1 Oct G
Page 53 and 54: Economic Calendar: 24 Sep - 1 Oct (
Page 55 and 56: Key Data Preview Chart 3: US ISM Po
Page 57 and 58: Key Data Preview Chart 7: US Consum
Page 59 and 60: Key Data Preview Chart 11: Japanese
Page 61 and 62: Key Data Preview Chart 7: UK CIPS M
Page 63 and 64: Economic Calendar: 4 - 29 October 4
Page 65 and 66: Next week's T-Bills Supply Date Cou
Page 67 and 68: Economic Forecasts GDP Year 2010 (%
Page 69 and 70: Market Coverage Market Economics Pa

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