MARKET MOVER - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

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Treasury and SAS Issuance Calendar Daily update onto https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com, Tools & Apps, Analytical Tools, Market Calendar, Government Flows In the pipeline - Treasuries: Ireland: Possibility of a syndicated offering towards the end of 2010 Germany: Plans to issue EUR 2-3bn in inflation-linked bonds and reserves right to issue foreign currency bonds in Q4 Poland: Plans to issue yen-denominated bonds in November and may issue euro-denominated bonds as early as January 2011 UK: Plans a syndicated offering: H2 October, conventional gilt (30-50y area), further details around 2 weeks in advance Denmark: H2 2010, to issue a 5y EUR loan (EUR 1-2bn). Opening of new 5y (Nov 2016) & 10y (Nov 2021) DGBs postponed to the beginning of 2011 Slovak Rep.: Considering issuing new syndicated 15y benchmark bond (around EUR 1.5bn) in the autumn During the week: UK: Choice of gilt for w.c. 11 Oct mini tender on Fri 1 Oct Date Day Closing Country Issues Details BNPP forecasts Local GMT 24/09 Fri Sweden Exch. Offer ILB 0.5% Jun 2017 vs. 3.5% Dec15 (# 3105) SEK 6bn 11:00 15:00 US Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase (2014-2016) FNMA Notes 26 Oct 2015 (new, syndicated) 27/09 Mon 10:55 08:55 Italy CTZ 31 Aug 2012 EUR 3bn Sweden Exch. Offer ILB 0.5% Jun 2017 vs. 5% Dec20 (# 3102) SEK 6bn 12:00 10:00 Belgium OLO 2.75% 28 Mar 2016 (OLO 59) OLO 3.75% 28 Sep 2020 (OLO 58) 24 Sep EUR 2-2.8bn OLO 4.25% 28 Mar 2041 (OLO 60) Slovak Rep. SLOVGB 3.5% 24 Feb 2016 (#213) EUR 0.150bn 13:00 17:00 US Notes 0.375% 30 Sep 2012 (new) USD 36bn 28/09 Tue 12:00 03:00 Japan JGB 15 Oct 2012 JPY 2.6tn 10:55 08:55 Italy BTPei 2.1% 15 Sep 2021 EUR 1-1.5bn Sweden Exch. Offer ILB 0.5% Jun 2017 vs. 3.5% Dec15 (# 3105) SEK 3bn Neths DSL 3.25% 15 Jul 2015 (Off-the-run facility) DSL 4% 15 Jul 2018 (Off-the-run facility) EUR 0-2bn Denmark DGB 4% 15 Nov 2010 (buy back) 12:00 16:00 Canada Repurchase of 7 Cash Mgt Bonds (Dec10 - Dec11) CAD 1bn 11:00 15:00 US Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase (2011-2040) 13:00 17:00 US Notes 1.25% 30 Sep 2015 (new) USD 35bn 29/09 Wed 10:55 08:55 Italy BTP 2% 1 Jun 2013 CCT 15 Dec 2015 (CCTeu) BTP 3.75% 1 Mar 2021 24 Sep EUR 5-7bn 11:00 09:00 Sweden T-bonds 4.5% 12 Aug 2015 (# 1049) SEK 2.5bn 13:00 17:00 US Notes 1.875% 30 Sep 2017 (new) USD 29bn 30/09 Thu 11:00 15:00 US Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase (2021-2040) 01/10 Fri 12:00 03:00 Japan Auction for Enhanced-liquidity 24 Sep JPY 0.3tn 05/10 Tue 11:00 09:00 Austria RAGBs 28 Sep 10:30 09:30 UK Index-Linked Gilt 0.625% 22 Nov 2042 28 Sep GBP 0.8bn Denmark DGB 30 Sep 11:00 15:00 US Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase (2016-2020) 06/10 Wed 11:00 09:00 Germany Schatz 0.75% 14 Sep 2012 EUR 5bn 11:00 09:00 Norway NGBs 29 Sep 11:00 15:00 US Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase (2013-2014) 07/10 Thu 12:00 03:00 Japan JGB 10-year 30 Sep JPY 2.2tn 10:30 08:30 Spain Bono 2.5% 31 Oct 2013 4 Oct 10:50 08:50 France OATs 1 Oct Sweden Exchange Offer ILBs 30 Sep 11/10 Mon Slovak Rep. SLOVGB (For decision) 4 Oct 12/10 Tue Neths DSL 6 Oct 13:00 17:00 US Notes 3-year (new) 7 Oct USD 33bn 13/10 Wed 11:00 09:00 Germany Bund 2.25% 4 Sep 2020 EUR 5bn 11:00 09:00 Sweden T-bonds 6 Oct 13:00 17:00 US Notes 10-year 7 Oct USD 21bn 14/10 Thu 12:00 03:00 Japan JGB 30-year 7 Oct JPY 0.6tn 10:55 08:55 Italy 5-year BTP and possibly 15- or 30-year BTP 7 Oct 10:30 09:30 UK Gilt 4.75% 7 Sep 2015 5 Oct 13:00 17:00 US Bond 30-year 7 Oct USD 13bn Sources: Treasuries, BNP Paribas Interest Rate Strategy 23 September 2010 Market Mover, Non-Objective Research Section 64 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Next week's T-Bills Supply Date Country Issues Details 24/09 UK T-Bills Oct 2010 GBP 1bn T-Bills Dec 2010 GBP 1.5bn T-Bills Mar 2011 GBP 1.5bn 27/09 France BTF Dec 2010 EUR 4bn BTF Feb 2011 EUR 1bn BTF Mar 2011 EUR 2bn BTF Jun 2011 EUR 1.5bn Italy BOT Mar 2011 EUR 9bn Germany Bubills Sep 2011 (new) EUR 4bn US T-Bills Dec 2010 USD 29bn T-Bills Mar 2011 (new) USD 29bn FHLMC Bills 3-month & 6-month 24 Sep 28/09 Spain Letras Dec 2010 27 Sep Letras Mar 2011 27 Sep Canada T-Bill Jan 2011 CAD 7.7bn T-Bill Mar 2011 (new) CAD 2.9bn T-Bill Sep 2011 (new) CAD 2.9bn US T-Bills 4-week 27 Sep FHLB Discount Notes 29/09 Japan T-Bills Jan 2011 JPY 4.8tn Denmark T-Bills FNMA Bills 3-month & 6-month 27 Sep 30/09 FHLB Discount Notes 01/10 UK T-Bills 24 Sep Sources: Treasuries, BNP Paribas Comments and charts • EGB gross supply will fall to around EUR 12/13bn in the week ahead from EUR 14bn in the past week. In 10y duration adjusted terms, it falls to around EUR 6.3bn. There well be also a significant amount of long-term and short-term redemptions, leading to negative net supply figures. • Italy will kick off EGB issuance with a CTZ Aug-12 tap for EUR 3bn. On the same day, Belgium will tap three OLO lines: Mar-16, Sep-20 and Mar-41. Then on Tuesday, Italy will tap BTPei Sep-21 for EUR 1-1.5bn and Netherlands will conduct off-the-run taps of DSLs Jul-15 and Jul-18 for EUR 1-2bn. Finally, on Wednesday Italy will reopen BTPs Jun-13 and Mar-21 and also tap CCTeu Dec-15 for an expected amount of EUR 4-6bn. • Outside the eurozone, the US will issue USD 100bn of 2y, 5y and 7y maturity notes. Sweden and Japan will also issue paper. Next week's Eurozone Redemptions Date Country Details Amount 28/09 Belgium OLO 5.75% EUR 15.8bn 29/09 Greece GGB 6% EUR 0.2bn 30/09 Italy CTZ EUR 16.4bn Total Eurozone Long-term Redemption EUR 32.4bn 27/09 Austria ATB (EU38) EUR 0.1bn 27/09 Austria ATB (EU37) EUR 0.2bn 29/09 Germany Bubills EUR 5.0bn 30/09 France BTF EUR 10.0bn 30/09 Italy BOT 6mth EUR 9.0bn 30/09 Neths DTC EUR 12.3bn Total Eurozone Short-term Redemption EUR 36.6bn 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Next week's Eurozone Coupons Country Belgium Total Long-term Coupon Payments Chart 1: Investors’ Net Cash Flows (EUR bn, 10y equivalent) Net Investors' Cash Flows (EUR bn , 10y equivalent) Week of Sep 27th Week of Oct 4th Week of Oct 11th Week of Oct 18th Chart 2: EGB Gross Supply Breakdown by Country (EUR bn, 10y equivalent) Germany Italy Portugal Belgium France Spain Netherlands Austria Finland Greece Ireland Amount EUR 4.7bn EUR 4.7bn Week of Sep 27th Week of Oct 4th Week of Oct 11th Week of Oct 18th Chart 3: EGB Gross Supply Breakdown by Maturity (EUR bn, 10y equivalent) 14 12 2-3-YR 5-7-YR 10-YR >10-YR EGBs Gross Supply (EUR bn, 10y equivalent) 10 8 6 4 2 0 Week of Sep 27th Week of Oct 4th Week of Oct 11th Week of Oct 18th All Charts Source: BNP Paribas Interest Rate Strategy 23 September 2010 Market Mover, Non-Objective Research Section 65 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
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Euromoney Interest Rates Survey 201
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ECB on a different page… …but i
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developments and is prepared to pro
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and property tax payments, dropped
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directly to effect outright purchas
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Services also on the slide The ‘f
Page 13 and 14: inflation rate is calculated exclud
Page 15 and 16: closer to a more normal level” to
Page 17 and 18: point advance in the June Tankan. P
Page 19 and 20: US: Belly of the Curve is Rich, but
Page 21 and 22: US: A Carry Trade with Extra Potent
Page 23 and 24: MBS: Remain Underweight, GNM CBRs U
Page 25 and 26: EUR: Re-Enter Flatteners on 5y/10y
Page 27 and 28: EGBs: Market Update & Top Trade Ide
Page 29 and 30: EUR Covered Bonds: Market Update
Page 31 and 32: GBP Curve Opportunities Update •
Page 33 and 34: Table 1: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
Page 35 and 36: Table 3: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
Page 37 and 38: Table 1: BNP Paribas Carry Analysis
Page 39 and 40: have been happy to buy the roll to
Page 41 and 42: Technical Analysis - Interest Rates
Page 43 and 44: Trade Reviews Options, Money Market
Page 45 and 46: ond market attracted huge swathes o
Page 47 and 48: warning to Greek banks that it migh
Page 49 and 50: Chart 2: EUR/SEK - major support be
Page 51 and 52: Economic Calendar: 24 Sep - 1 Oct G
Page 53 and 54: Economic Calendar: 24 Sep - 1 Oct (
Page 55 and 56: Key Data Preview Chart 3: US ISM Po
Page 57 and 58: Key Data Preview Chart 7: US Consum
Page 59 and 60: Key Data Preview Chart 11: Japanese
Page 61 and 62: Key Data Preview Chart 7: UK CIPS M
Page 63: Economic Calendar: 4 - 29 October 4
Page 67 and 68: Economic Forecasts GDP Year 2010 (%
Page 69 and 70: Market Coverage Market Economics Pa
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MARKET MOVER - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

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