Globalization Challenges to Egypt’s Production SectorsRevealed Comparative AdvantagesTable (3.14), which presents the results ofapplying the technique of RCA to figures ofexports for each country in our sample,shows that the same phenomenon, ofprimary commodity bias in Egyptian trade,manifests itself when the structure ofcommodity groups in which Egypt has arevealed comparative advantage is explored.Even the Philippines, that has a lowersnumber of products with RCA than Egypt,has a more diversified structure with goodpresentation in the high-knowledgecategories of machinery and equipment.Most of the commodities in which Egypthas RCA are natural resource-intensive orlabor-based industries. The relative highestcommodity group in which Egypt enjoys thegreatest number of commodities with RCA,in comparison to those of other countries forthe same group, is the ‘mineral fuels,lubricants and related materials’ group.Petroleum and its products belong to thisgroup. This RCA in petroleum and itsproducts is not expected to be sustainable inthe long run. And the lowest RCAprevailing in the relative structure ofEgyptian merchandise is the ‘machinery andtransport equipment’ group. This is thegroup with a continuously increasing sharein world trade.During the first half of the 1990s, thenational income of Egypt had experienced aloss of almost 2 per cent, due to thedeterioration in the terms of trade for theresource-based products that Egypt tradesin. High rates of innovation of man-madesubstitutes for natural resource - basedproducts constitute a major challenge thatconfronts trade in products with high naturalcontent. That is to say, the higher the shareof primary resource-based products inEgypt's export structure, the more the loss incompetitiveness and income the economy isexposed to. The first category in whichEgypt has the highest number ofcommodities with RCA is ‘manufacturedgoods classified chiefly by materials’, inwhich the groups of ‘textiles’ and ‘wearingapparel’ are included. For these two groups,Egypt enjoys international competitiveness,yet to a lower degree for apparel comparedto textiles.Domestic CompetitivenessImports competing with domestic productsrepresent a threat that becomes tangiblewhen the policy of economic openness ispursued at high speed. In this situation,consumer demand develops more rapidlythan the capacity of local firms. Domesticsuppliers begin to lose their internalmarkets, thereby allowing a continuousincrease in the foreign component ofdomestic consumption. If local firms fail todominate their own domestic markets, theywould presumably have little chance tocompete internationally.If local firms fail todominate their owndomestic markets,they wouldpresumably have littlechance to competeinternationally.Table (3.14)Manufacturing Outputs’ Structure (1995)Export Categories0123456789TotalChina43229763110944900361Egypt230258215490170139Indonesia3112786124311412182Korea1001110227545401205Malaysia1211778113136280151Morocco Philippines Thailand350252353923401451611622726133331193842543165841611251Tunisia1741542113214490148Turkey4443526168917500263*ISIC classification: Food, beverage, and tobacco (31) - Textiles, wearing apparel, leather, and footwear (32) - Wood and wood products, including furniture(33) - Paper and paper products, printing and publishing (34) - Chemicals (35) - Non-metallic minerals (36) - Basic metals (37) - Metal products, machineryand equipment (38) - Other manufacturing industries (39)... Figures are not available.Egypt <strong>Human</strong> <strong>Development</strong> Report 2000/2001 - 53
Globalization Challenges to Egypt’s Production SectorsProductive units inEgypt are expected toconfront with theopening of theeconomy and theanticipated change inconsumerpreferences.In this area, local competitiveness ismeasured by applying the World Bank'sIndex of ‘export competitiveness’ todomestic data. This index reflects thedevelopment of domestic consumptionarising from local output of the commodityin question. If applied to the textile sector,as a representative example of domesticcompetitiveness, the index is defined interms of growth of Egypt's textileconsumption that is satisfied by domesticproduction. This growth depends basicallyon the capabilities of local productive unitsto: (i) respond rapidly to the growth ofdomestic consumption of textiles (f1);(ii)deepen their market share, i.e. increase theshare of local production in total domesticconsumption of textiles (f2); and (iii)diversify their textile production to becapable of satisfying the increasinglydiversified consumers demand (f3).Table (3.15) depicts the results of applyingthe WB’s formula in the case of Egypt andTurkey. Computations are based on theapplication of regression analysis to regressgrowth of textile consumption satisfied bylocal production on the growth of totalnational consumption of textiles (f1), andthe market share of local manufacturingrelative to the growth of domesticconsumption (f2). The diversification factor(f3) is obtained as a residual.Table (3.15)Domestic Competitiveness of TextilesCountry f 1 f 2 f 3 gEgyptTurkey0.733.110.01-0.49-0.120.790.723.35It is also shown in the table that the bulk ofgrowth of the local component in thestructure of domestic consumption isattributable to the growth of thisconsumption per se. Effects of productdiversification are apparent in the case ofTurkey, but not for Egypt. This factorhighlights the challenges that productiveunits in Egypt are expected to confront withthe opening of the economy and theanticipated change in consumer preferences.In comparison to Egypt, consumption inTurkey has been experiencing high growthrates due to the notable increase in percapita income and the rapid opening up ofthe economy. With the growth ofintra-trade, (f2) would most probablyregister low values, and negative signs inmore open economies.With the relaxation of tariffs on importsunder the Egypt-EU Partnership Agreement(E-EUPA), effective rates of protection ontextile products would decrease to negativerates by the end of the phases of tariffreductions. Figure (3.3) illustrates thereduction of effective rates of protection onthe two major branches of the domestictextile sector (spinning and weaving, andready-made garments) according to the fourphases of tariff relaxation of the E-EUPA.The market penetration ratio (MPR) wasalways minor on products of this industrydue to the existence of import bans and veryhigh tariff walls. After the removal ofprotection, the domestic products of thissector will not be able to face externalcompetition. Prices of most of theseproducts (either inputs, or final outputs) aremuch higher than international prices due toinefficient domestic production processes.This shift towards imports will negativelyaffect the level of domestic production. Thisloss of local competitiveness could begeneralized to many industrial branches.Many of the local industrial outputs havehigher prices than their internationalcounterparts, due to inefficient practices inthe production and pricing processes, suchas the presence of both technical andallocation inefficiencies and high mark-upprices.To sum up, the above analysis discussed theposition of Egypt's manufacturing sector inthe international context. Relatively speaking,the level and technology content of theindustrial base in Egypt is close to that ofmany competitive economies, such asTunisia, Morocco, and Turkey. Yet, forEgypt's manufactured exports, both the leveland the technology content are largelybelow these countries. The internationalposition of this sector in external markets isexpected to face major challenges frommany developing countries that areproducing close substitutes to Egypt’sexports. Moreover, the increase in thedegree and speed of globalization throughthe introduction of regional free trade areas54 -Egypt <strong>Human</strong> <strong>Development</strong> Report 2000/2001