English - Human Development Reports - United Nations ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Globalization Challenges to Egypt’s Production SectorsGone are the old days when a regulator feltthat he did his job once he had translatedinternational standards of supervision andregulation, and added some localingredients and flavors. Quality ofsupervision does matter, a credit cultureshould be established, and corporatestructure and governance is of crucialimportance.Despite the numerous proposals that havebeen put forward to establish a ‘new’global financial architecture, so far littleprogress has been made. The debacle inSeattle and the growing anti-globalization(and anti - capitalist) movementdemonstrate that these proposals havehardly gained ground. It may be the casethat the developed countries see no valuein revolutionizing the international system.In the international financial environment,the G7 currently put an emphasis on threeissues: more market-sensitive riskmanagement; stronger prudential standards;and improved information disclosure andtransparency, in a way to equip themarkets to reward good behavior andpenalize bad.External Pressures on theEgyptian Economy Since 1997/98The relatively strong economicfundamentals resulting from the ERSAPhelped Egypt lessen the impact of thefinancial crises that faced some otheremerging markets in 1997 - 1998.Nevertheless, by the end of the decade, theEgyptian economy faced some unfavorableconditions. This was partly due to theaccumulation of external pressures, and theinternal economic policies that were appliedto overcome their impact. The outcome ofthese pressures resulted in a deterioration ofthe external position that was reflected in aslower pace of real GDP growth rates.During the three years 1997/98-1999/2000,the accumulated overall deficit of thebalance of payments reached US$10.4billion. This deficit was financed either byofficial international reserves, whichdeclined by US$5.3 billion (or 51 per centof the accumulated deficit) and reduced netinternational reserves (NIR) to US$ 15.13billion by the end of June 2000, or by thedecline of the net foreign assets (NFA) ofthe banks by about US$ 5.1 billion (orabout 49 per cent of the accumulateddeficit). This decline in the banks’ NFAraised concerns regarding the future of theexchange rate while the deterioration ofthe NIR raised other concerns andexpectations.Pressures started with a limited outflow ofportfolio investments in 1997/98, coupledwith a decline in tourism income, andintensified by the deterioration of internationaloil prices. This has negatively affected thecountry's overall balance of paymentsposition.The decline of international oil pricesseverely hit Egypt’s oil exports receipts,which declined from US$2.6 billion in1996/97 to about US$1 billion in1998/99. This decline represented around61.5 per cent of the revenues from oiland gas exports of the previous year.Although the downward trend of oilprices has been reversed since early1999, the Egyptian oil trade balancechanged to show a deficit, for the firsttime, in 1998/99. This deficit continuedduring 1999/2000. The continuation ofthe trade deficit after the surge ofinternational oil prices indicated thatthere is a structural problem in the oilsector (see Table 3.16).The relatively strongeconomicfundamentalsresulting from theERSAP helped Egyptlessen the impact ofthe financial crisesthat faced some otheremerging markets in1997-1998.Egypt Human Development Report 2000/2001 - 59
Globalization Challenges to Egypt’s Production SectorsIn US $ MillionTotal Imports (c.i.f.)Imports Groth Rate%Trade BalanceOil export price (US$/barrel)Oil & Gas exportsOil & Gas Imports**Oil Trade Balance ($ million)Oil exports/total exports, f.o.b.Travel recciptsTourists nights (million)Current Account BalanceNet Prtfolio Investment.Net FDIIncrease(+)/decrease(—)in banking assetsIncrease (—)/Decrease (+) in banking liabilitiesChanges in Net Foreign Assets of banksCapital & Financial AccountNet Errors and omissionsOverall Balance including banksOverall Balance excluding banksFinancing: Increase (—)/Decrease (+) in NFA ofbanks & changes in GIR.Increase (—)/Decrease (+) in GIRIncrease (—)/Decrease (+) in NFA of banksTable (3.16)Major External Sector Indicators:1995/961410710.12- 9498.415.72225.6-853.81371.848.3%300922.9-185257.6626.9-1148.7161.3-987.41017.3-261.3570.6-416.8416.8-570.6987.41996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00*1556510.34-10219.417.82577.8-1395.81182.048.2%364626.0118.61462.9769.7377.1-1245.0-867.92040.7-247.01912.31004.4-1004.4-1912.3867.9168998.57-11770.615.61728.4-1389.8338.633.7%294121.5-2478.6-2481103.9-1672.2-1783.5-3455.73386.9-1043.3-135.0-3590.73590.7135.03455.7170080.65-12652.59.7999.7-1137.2- 137.522.5%323525.7-1723.8-173.6710.6-2125.6-346.6-2472.2918.6-1311.5-2116.7-4588.94588.92116.72472.2178615.02-11473.717.32272.9-2387.8-114.935.6%431434.0-1170.5472.61656.1198.2650.7848.9-974.1-880.1-3024.7-2175.82175.83024.7-848.9* Provisional**Including oil product imports and foreign investors share in productionAlthough Egypt’s capital and financialaccount has always compensated thestructural deficit of the Egyptian currentaccount, its balance of payments deteriorationstarted in 1998/99. While FDI continued tocontribute positively to the balance of thecapital and financial account during theperiod 1996/97-1999/2000, the privatizationof cement companies during 1999/2000contributed significantly to the flow of thisFDI.Net changes of other assets are the outcomeof changes in the non-reserve assets andliabilities of the CBE, changes in the NFAof the banks, and changes in other assets. Itis important to focus on changes in the NFAof the banks to analyze the impact onEgypt’s external position. The net decreasein banks’ FA during the period 1995/96-1998/99 reached US$ 4569.4 million. Onthe other hand, the net increase in thebanks’ liabilities during the same periodreached US$ 3213.8 million. These changesin the NFA of banks amounted to adeterioration of about US$ 7.8 billion,which raised concerns regarding the futureof the exchange rate and the ability of banksto meet foreign obligations.Mitigating Financial VulnerabilityAs shown above, the Egyptian economymanaged to enjoy positive trends in itsperformance until its exposure to threemajor shocks within 6 months starting mid-1997. It is normal for a small open economyto be exposed and affected by externalshocks, and does not necessarily implyvulnerability. There is a set of selectedindicators that can be used to investigate thelikely vulnerability of an economy (seeTable 3.17).60 -Egypt Human Development Report 2000/2001
Page 2 and 3:
The Digital Divide is a problem tha
Page 4 and 5:
This report is the major output of
Page 6 and 7:
AcknowledgementsThe Team of the Rep
Page 8 and 9:
Table of ContentsExecutive Summary
Page 10 and 11:
Energy Consumption 68Agriculture 69
Page 12 and 13:
2.4 Health and Education 332.5 Poli
Page 14 and 15:
AbbreviationsADNAADPAIAPRARCB2CBABC
Page 16 and 17:
Executive SummaryI - Globalization
Page 18 and 19:
Executive Summarythe main source of
Page 20 and 21:
Executive Summaryfertilizers, pesti
Page 22 and 23:
Executive Summarythe Egyptian labor
Page 24 and 25: Chapter OneGlobalization and Human
Page 26 and 27: Globalization and Human Development
Page 40 and 41: Chapter TwoThe Economic Well Being
Page 42 and 43: The Economic Well Being of Egyptian
Page 58 and 59: Globalization Challenges to Egypt
Page 80 and 81: The Environment and Sustainable Dev
Page 88: The Environment and Sustainable Dev
Page 93 and 94: Chapter FiveEgypt’s Position inTe
Page 95 and 96: Egypt’s Position in Technology an
Page 109 and 110: Chapter SixGlobalization and Human
Page 111 and 112: Globalization and Human CapitalOf t
Page 113 and 114: Globalization and Human CapitalOne
Page 115 and 116: Globalization and Human CapitalThe
Page 117 and 118: Globalization and Human CapitalEmpl
Page 119 and 120: Chapter SevenEgypt’s Social Capit
Page 121 and 122: Egypt’s Social Capital and Arab E
Page 123 and 124: Egypt’s Social Capital and Arab E
Page 125 and 126:
Egypt’s Social Capital and Arab E
Page 127 and 128:
Page 129 and 130:
Page 131 and 132:
Technical Notesand Sources of DataH
Page 133 and 134:
Technical Notes and Sources of Data
Page 135 and 136:
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
Bibliography◆ Abdallah, H. (1996)
Page 141 and 142:
BibliographyOECD Development Centre
Page 143 and 144:
BibliographyNational policies in a
Page 145 and 146:
Bibliography◆ Springborg,Robert (
Page 147 and 148:
Governorate Indicators*+XPDQGHYHORS
Page 149 and 150:
Governorate Indicators*3URILOHRIKXP
Page 151 and 152:
Governorate Indicators*+XPDQFDSLWDO
Page 153 and 154:
Governorate Indicators*)HPDOHPDOHJD
Page 155 and 156:
Governorate Indicators*&KLOGVXUYLYD
Page 157 and 158:
Governorate Indicators*(GXFDWLRQIOR
Page 159 and 160:
Governorate Indicators*&RPPXQLFDWLR
Page 161 and 162:
Governorate Indicators*8QHPSOR\PHQW
Page 163 and 164:
Governorate Indicators*8UEDQL]DWLRQ
Page 165 and 166:
Governorate Indicators*/DQGUHVRXUFH
Page 167 and 168:
Governorate IndicatorsG.2 Profile o
Page 169 and 170:
Governorate IndicatorsG.4 Trends in
Page 171 and 172:
Governorate IndicatorsG.6 Status of
Page 173 and 174:
Governorate IndicatorsG.8 Rural-urb
Page 175 and 176:
Governorate IndicatorsG.10 Health p
Page 177 and 178:
Governorate IndicatorsG.12 Educatio
Page 179 and 180:
Governorate IndicatorsG.14 Labor fo
Page 181 and 182:
Governorate IndicatorsG.16 Income d
Page 183 and 184:
Governorate IndicatorsG.18 Demograp
Page 186:
It is the illiteracy rate that pull
show all

English - Human Development Reports - United Nations ...

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?