Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2015 - FILT CGIL Foggia

Chapter 3WORLD ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTHISTORICAL TRENDS1. As indicated in Chapter 2, the world economy is subject to economic cycles but has steadily grown overthe long term. During the period 1960–2002, the aggregate world economy measured in terms of GDP increasedat an average annual rate of 3.4 per cent in real terms.2. Following the recession of 1980–1982, the world economy experienced its longest period of sustainedprogress (1983–1989) since the Second World War, achieving an average annual growth rate of 3.6 per centbefore a slowdown in 1990, due primarily to fuel price increases in the wake of the Gulf crisis in the second halfof the year.3. However, the 1990 oil price increases did less damage to the world economy than did previous increasesin 1973 and 1980. The 1990 increases were smaller, and the ability of the economies of the industrializedcountries to cope with them was greater because of reduced energy dependency and the effects of structuralreforms in the 1980s. They also lasted for a shorter period, with both crude oil and jet fuel prices returning topre-crisis levels by March 1991.4. World economic growth, measured in terms of real GDP, declined from almost 3.5 per cent in 1989 to0.7 per cent in 1990. In 1991, some major economies entered into a recession or experienced a slowdown; as aresult, the world economy increased only by 0.1 per cent in 1991, the most difficult year globally since 1982. Theworld economy improved in 1992 and 1993, and over the period 1990–1995 it grew at an average annual rate of2.8 per cent. Having experienced high growth rates in 1996 and 1997 (3.5 and 3.7 per cent, respectively), theworld economy slowed down in 1998, led by a turndown in the Asia/Pacific region, and increased only by 1.9 percent. It regained strength, however, in 1999 with GDP growth of 3.1 per cent, based mainly on economicrecovery in the Asia/Pacific region and continued strong growth in the United States economy, and continued togrow in 2000 at 4.6 per cent. Another slowdown occurred during 2001 across almost all major regions resultingfrom a marked decline in trade growth, significantly lower commodity prices, and deteriorating financingconditions in emerging markets. The events of 11 September 2001 amplified the impact of an already weakeningglobal economy, particularly on consumer and business confidence in the United States; as a result, GDP growthdropped to 2.3 per cent. With trade and industrial production improving across all regions, the world economybegan to recover and grew at a rate of 3.0 per cent in 2002.5. World population growth between 1980 and 2002 increased at an average annual rate of 1.5 per cent.Hence, the world’s GDP per capita increased during the same period at an average annual rate of 1.2 per cent,lower than the growth of GDP itself. For the period 1992–2002, GDP and GDP per capita grew at an averageannual rate of 3.0 per cent and 1.6 per cent, respectively.OUTLOOK6. There appears to be consensus among economic forecasters that the world economic and financialconditions are on a sustainable recovery path and that the global economy will continue to expand over the22