Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2015 - FILT CGIL Foggia

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Appendix 2MODEL FOR AIRCRAFTMOVEMENT FORECASTS1. The relationship between aircraft-kilometres, load factors and aircraft size (seats per aircraft) wasdeveloped for passenger aircraft as follows:Aircraft kilometres ==passenger-km(passenger-km/seat-km) • (seat-km/aircraft-km)passenger-km (1)load factor • aircraft sizeThe forecast for aircraft-kilometres for scheduled passenger aircraft in the year 2015 was generated bysubstituting into this expression the assumptions for passenger-kilometres, average load factor and averageaircraft size in the year 2015 (excluding the Commonwealth of Independent States for which some of the basedata were not available). The first of these assumptions follows directly from the traffic forecast presented inChapter 5.2. The average rate of increase in aircraft-kilometres from 2002 to 2015 implied by this forecast was thenused to calculate the forecast number of aircraft-kilometres for all scheduled services, including all-freight as wellas combined passenger and freight services (but excluding the Commonwealth of Independent States).3. The relationship between aircraft departures, aircraft-kilometres and aircraft stage length for passengerand all-freight aircraft combined is derived as follows:Aircraft departures ==aircraft-kmaircraft-km/aircraft departureaircraft-km (2)stage lengthThe forecast for aircraft departures in the year 2015 was generated by substituting into this expression the forecastfor aircraft-kilometres and the assumption for average stage length in the year 2015.4. Equations (1) and (2) can be expressed, approximately, in terms of the average annual rates of change ofthe variables over a specified period (e.g. 2002 to 2015).Equation (1) becomes:% (ac-km) % (passenger-km) % (load factor) % (ac size)Equation (2) becomes:% (ac departures) % (ac-km) % (stage length)where “ac” stands for “aircraft” and “%” stands for “average annual percentage increase”.49
50 Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 20155. The actual historical values and forecast values, as well as the corresponding average annual rates ofchange for all of the variables in equations (1) and (2), are given in Table A2-1.Table A2-1. Growth in aircraft movements andcontributing factors World (1982–2015)Average annual growth rate(per cent)Actual Actual Actual Forecast1982 1992 2002 2015 1982-1992 1992–2002 2002–2015Passenger-kilometres (billions) 970 1 782 2 881 5 038 6.3 4.9 4.4Passenger load factor (%) 61 65 71 73 0.6 0.9 0.2Passenger aircraft size (seats) 181 187 178 178 0.3 0.2 0.2Aircraft stage length (km) 881 1 047 1 193 1 358 1.7 1.3 1.0Aircraft-kilometres (millions) 9 140 15 420 23 878 40 750 5.4 4.5 4.2Aircraft departures (thousands) 10 379 14 728 20 013 30 010 3.6 3.1 3.2Note.— Excluding operations of airlines registered in the CIS.— END —
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FOREWORDIntroduction1. This circula
Page 5 and 6: Table of Contents(v)Figure 4-3. Pas
Page 7 and 8: 2 Outlook for Air Transport to the
Page 27 and 28: Chapter 3WORLD ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
Page 29 and 30: Chapter 4AIRLINE FINANCIAL TRENDSOP
Page 47 and 48: Chapter 6FORECASTS OF AIRCRAFT MOVE
Page 50: Chapter 6. Forecasts of Aircraft Mo
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Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2015 - FILT CGIL Foggia

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