Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2015 - FILT CGIL Foggia

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Chapter 3. World Economic Environment 23medium term. Apart from the negative impacts of the war in Iraq and the SARS outbreak in parts of Asia duringthe first half of 2003, the world economy began to show signs of a renewed recovery. It is estimated that theworld GDP grew approximately 3.2 per cent in real terms in 2003, slightly higher than in 2002. For the years2004 and 2005, the world economy is anticipated to further expand at 4.1 and 4.2 per cent, respectively.7. Figure 3-1 portrays the historical growth trends of GDP and GDP per capita in real terms from 1992–2002 and the prospects through to 2005. The outlook for 2003–05 is taken from the most recent three-yearforecasts on economic development and scheduled passenger traffic at the global and regional level that ICAOproduces and publishes in an annual series entitled The World of Civil Aviation.8. Over the long-term horizon to 2015, the world economy is projected to grow at an average annual rate of2.5 per cent in real terms (see Chapter 5).6GDPGDP per capita42Per cent0–2–4ActualForecast1992 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 2005Source: ICAO estimates based on data from the IMF, OECD, WEFA Group, World Bank and other sources.Figure 3-1. Growth of real GDP and GDP per capita — World (1992–2005)___________________
Chapter 4AIRLINE FINANCIAL TRENDSOPERATING REVENUES, EXPENSES AND RESULTSGlobal trends1. This chapter outlines general trends in airline financial data (in current terms unless indicated otherwise)from the historical perspective and, in broad terms, the outlook to the year 2015. Financial data for the years 1970,1980 and 1990 as well as for the period 1992–2002, categorized by major components of operating revenues andexpenses, are given in Table 4-1. The trends in annual operating revenues and expenses for the period 1992 to2002 are illustrated in Figure 4-1. The treatment is global in nature, dealing with totals and averages for theairlines at the global level, and for this reason does not show the wide differences that exist between regions orindividual carriers. Since the available information on non-scheduled operators is incomplete, the analysis isconfined to the scheduled airlines of ICAO Contracting States (although the non-scheduled operations of theseairlines are included).2. The long-term historical trend of the financial performance of scheduled airlines indicates neither animprovement nor a decline, although fluctuations in the operating results occurred over the past ten years. Duringthe 1983–1989 period, a decrease in fuel costs, along with other cost reduction and yield control measures,brought about an improvement in the financial results of the industry which generated a positive net result of4.4 per cent of operating revenues over this period. This trend was reversed in 1990 as a result of a steep increasein fuel prices caused by the Gulf crisis, along with a slowdown in the world economy. The market conditionschanged as the demand weakened and the utilization of airline resources tended to decline. The emergence ofexcess capacity and consequent competitive pressures put downward pressure on yields. These factors combinedto produce negative operating results in three consecutive years (1990–1992). In 1993, the airline industry startedto move towards a more appropriate balance of supply and demand and achieved a small operating surplus.Between 1994 and 2000, the airline industry continued to show positive operating results with profit marginsranging between 3.1 and 5.6 per cent of operating revenues. In 2001, shrinking operating revenues, due todeclining traffic combined with increasing fuel, security and insurance costs, led to an unprecedented operationalloss of $11.8 billion and a net loss of $13 billion. In 2002, the operating loss is estimated at $4.9 billion and thenet loss at $11.3 billion (see Table 4-1).3. As shown in Table 4-2, from 1992 to 2002 the total operating revenues of the world’s scheduled airlinesfrom scheduled and non-scheduled services (including incidental revenues) increased at an average annual rate of3.5 per cent, from $217 800 million to $306 000 million. During the same period, the corresponding totaloperating expenses increased at an average annual rate of 3.5 per cent, from $219 600 million to $310 900 million.During this period, the growth in world airline operating revenues was associated with an average annual growthin total traffic of 5.7 per cent in terms of TKPs (excluding domestic operations in the Russian Federation in 1992)and a decline in airline yields (average operating revenue per tonne-kilometre performed) of 2.2 per cent perannum from 90.7 cents in 1992 to 72.9 cents in 2002. The unit cost per available tonne-kilometre (ATK) declinedby 1.2 per cent from 52.6 cents in 1992 to 45.2 cents in 2002. Figure 4-2 presents the trends in the financialperformance indicators of the global airline industry in terms of unit revenues and costs as well as operating andnet results over the 1992–2002 period.24
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Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2015 - FILT CGIL Foggia

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