Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2015 - FILT CGIL Foggia

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Chapter 1SUMMARY1. During the period 1960–2002, the aggregate economic activities of the world measured by GrossDomestic Product (GDP) increased at an average annual rate of 3.4 per cent in real terms. For the period 1992–2002, GDP and GDP per capita grew at an average annual rate of 3.0 per cent and 1.6 per cent, respectively (seeChapter 3).2. Growth in air transport has been much greater than economic growth but is closely linked with it. Worldairline scheduled passenger traffic (domestic and international) measured in terms of passenger-kilometresperformed (PKPs) increased at an average annual rate of 8.1 per cent for the 1960–2002 period. For the periods1960–1972, 1972–1982, 1982–1992 and 1992–2002, passenger traffic grew at an average annual rate of 12.8, 7.6,5.4 and 4.3 per cent, respectively (see Table 2-1). While economic conditions continued to be the major driver ofair travel demand, security and safety concerns and so-called fear and hassle factors, triggered by theunprecedented events of 11 September 2001, had adverse effects on air traffic in 2001 and 2002. These effects,further amplified by the war in Iraq and the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), continuedin 2003 and were taken into account for the projection of future air traffic trends.3. World airline scheduled freight traffic (domestic and international) measured in terms oftonne-kilometres performed (TKPs) increased at an average annual rate of 8.5 per cent over the 1960–2002 period.For the periods 1960–1972, 1972–1982, 1982–1992 and 1992–2002, freight traffic grew at an average annual rateof 16.9, 8.2, 7.1 and 6.4 per cent, respectively (see Table 2-1).4. The growth in passenger and freight traffic demand over the 1960–2002 period resulted in comparablegrowth in capacity offered, while aircraft movements measured in terms of aircraft departures grew at a muchslower rate (2.7 per cent per annum) due primarily to a large increase in average aircraft size and in averagedistance flown per aircraft departure during this period. Historical traffic trends are described in Chapter 2.5. During the period 1960–2002, average world passenger yield measured in real terms (expressed in U.S.cents per PKP) declined at a rate of 2.5 per cent per annum. Freight and mail yield measured in real terms(expressed in U.S. cents per TKP) decreased at a rate of 3.5 per cent per annum. During the same period, unitcosts (operating cost per available tonne-kilometre (ATK)) measured in real terms declined at an average annualrate of 2.5 per cent (see Chapter 4).6. Future growth of air transport will continue to depend primarily on world economic and trade growth andairline cost developments (which are in turn heavily dependent on fuel prices). This growth will also beinfluenced, however, by the extent to which the industry faces up to major challenges such as fear and hasslefactors influencing consumer confidence, airport and airspace congestion, environmental protection andincreasing capital investment needs. The shape and size of the air transport system will also be affected bygovernmental decisions, notably those determining the type and extent of economic regulation of airlines. Airlinetraffic forecasts are presented in Chapter 5.7. For the forecast period 2002–2015, world economic growth (GDP) is expected to increase at an averageannual rate of 2.5 per cent in real terms. Airline yields are expected to decline at an annual rate of 0.5 per cent forthe first four years for passenger traffic and six years for freight traffic and to stabilize for the remaining years ofthe forecast horizon.1
2 Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 20158. World scheduled traffic measured in terms of passenger-kilometres performed is forecast to increase at a“most likely” average annual rate of 4.4 per cent for the period 2002–2015. International traffic is expected toincrease at 5.1 per cent per annum, while domestic traffic is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 3.1per cent.9. The airlines of the Middle East region are expected to experience the highest growth in passenger trafficat 6.4 per cent per annum through to the year 2015, followed by the airlines of the Asia/Pacific region with a6.1 per cent annual growth rate. Airline traffic in each of the European, Latin America/Caribbean and Africanregions is expected to grow at around 4 per cent, slightly below the world average. In the North American region,airline traffic is expected to increase at 2.8 per cent per annum.10. Forecasts of the number of passengers carried on scheduled services in nine intercontinental route groupsshow the Transpacific and the Europe-Africa markets as the fastest growing, at 6.6 per cent and 5.5 per cent perannum, respectively, for the forecast period through to 2015.11. World scheduled freight traffic measured in terms of tonne-kilometres performed is forecast to increase ata “most likely” average annual rate of 5.5 per cent for the period 2002–2015. International freight traffic isexpected to increase at an average annual growth rate of 5.8 per cent compared with a domestic freight trafficgrowth of 3.2 per cent per annum. Air freight traffic in the Middle East region is expected to remain the fastestgrowing at 6.6 per cent per annum, followed by the Asia/Pacific region (6.4 per cent). Other regions are projectedto experience growth rates below the world average, ranging from around 5 per cent for the North American andEuropean regions to 2.5 per cent for the Latin America/Caribbean region.12. Aircraft movements in terms of aircraft departures and aircraft kilometres flown for the period 2002–2015 are expected to increase at average annual rates of 3.2 and 4.2 per cent, respectively (see Chapter 6).13. Tables 1-1, 1-2 and 1-3 provide summaries of traffic forecasts at the global, regional and intercontinentalroute group level.Table 1-1. ICAO air traffic forecasts World (1992–2015)(ICAO Contracting States)Average annual growthrate (per cent)Actual Actual ForecastScheduled services 1992 2002 2015 1992–2002 2002–2015TOTALPassenger-kilometres (billions) 1 928 2 942 5 120 4.3 4.4Freight tonne-kilometres (millions) 62 675 116 628 233 850 6.4 5.5Passengers carried (millions) 1 146 1 615 2 520 3.5 3.5Freight tonnes carried (thousands) 17 647 29 538 51 700 5.3 4.4Aircraft-kilometres (millions) 1 15 420 23 878 40 750 4.5 4.2Aircraft departures (thousands) 1 14 728 20 013 30 010 3.1 3.2INTERNATIONALPassenger-kilometres (billions) 982 1 732 3 310 5.8 5.1Freight tonne-kilometres (millions) 50 753 100 588 209 600 7.1 5.8Passengers carried (millions) 299 544 1 030 6.2 5.0Freight tonnes carried (thousands) 9 313 19 013 37 200 7.4 5.31. Excluding operations of airlines registered in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).Source: ICAO
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Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2015 - FILT CGIL Foggia

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