Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2015 - FILT CGIL Foggia

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(iv) Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2015Chapter 6. Forecasts of Aircraft Movements to the Year 2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42Factors affecting aircraft movements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42Measures of aircraft movements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44Forecasting methodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44Forecasts of world scheduled aircraft movements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45PageAPPENDICESAppendix 1. Econometric Models of Demand for World Scheduled Air Traffic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47Appendix 2. Model for Aircraft Movement Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49TABLESTable 1-1. ICAO air traffic forecasts — World (1992–2015) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2Table 1-2. ICAO air traffic forecasts — Regions of airline registration (1992–2015) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3Table 1-3. ICAO air traffic forecasts — Intercontinental route groups (1992–2015). . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4Table 2-1. Trends in total scheduled traffic — World (1960–2002). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6Table 2-2. International non-scheduled passenger traffic — World (1992 and 2002) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Table 2-3. Productivity of international scheduled airlines — World (1965–2002). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Table 4-1. Operating revenues and expenses — World (1970–2002). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25Table 4-2. Total and unit operating revenues and expenses — World (1992 and 2002) . . . . . . . . . . . 26Table 4-3. Distribution of operating revenues and expenses — World (1992 and 2002) . . . . . . . . . . . 31Table 4-4.Distribution of operating revenues and expenses — Regions ofairline registration (1992 and 2002) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32Table 5-1. ICAO scheduled passenger traffic forecasts — World (1992–2015) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35Table 5-2. ICAO scheduled passenger traffic — Regions of airline registration (1992–2015). . . . . . . 37Table 5-3. ICAO scheduled passenger traffic — Intercontinental route groups (1992–2015) . . . . . . . 38Table 5-4. ICAO scheduled freight traffic forecasts — World (1992–2015) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39Table 5-5. ICAO scheduled freight traffic — Regions of airline registration (1992–2015) . . . . . . . . . 40Table 5-6. Global scheduled traffic forecasts by aerospace manufacturers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41Table 6-1. ICAO aircraft movements forecast — World (1982–2015) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46Table A2-1. Growth in aircraft movements and contributing factors — World (1982–2015) . . . . . . . . . 50FIGURESFigure 2-1. Economic and airline traffic trends — World (1960–2002). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6Figure 2-2. Trends in scheduled international and domestic traffic — World (1992 and 2002). . . . . . . 7Figure 2-3. International passenger and freight traffic — Shares by region (1992 and 2002) . . . . . . . . 8Figure 2-4. Passengers on scheduled services — Intercontinental route groups (1992 and 2002) . . . . . 9Figure 2-5. Growth in passengers and aircraft movements — World (1960–2002) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Figure 2-6. Composition of commercial aircraft fleet — World (1960–2002) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11Figure 2-7. Trends in airline productivity — World (1960–2002). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13Figure 2-8. Input price trends — World (1960–2002) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Figure 2-9. Trends in airline industry performance — World (1960–2002) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Figure 3-1. Growth of real GDP and GDP per capita — World (1992–2005) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23Figure 4-1. Scheduled airline operating revenues and expenses — World (1992–2002). . . . . . . . . . . . 26Figure 4-2. Financial performance indicators of scheduled airlines — World (1992–2002) . . . . . . . . . 27
Table of Contents(v)Figure 4-3. Passenger and freight yields of scheduled airlines — World (1960–2002). . . . . . . . . . . . . 29Figure 4-4. Unit operating costs of scheduled airlines — World (1992–2002). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29Figure 4-5. Share of fuel and oil in operating expenses of scheduled airlines — World (1992–2002) . . 30Figure 5-1. Trends in scheduled passenger traffic — World (1992–2015). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35Figure 5-2. Trends in scheduled freight traffic — World (1992–2015) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39Figure 6-1. Average aircraft size and load factor — World (1960–2002) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43Figure 6-2. Average aircraft stage length — World (1960–2002) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45Page___________________
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Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2015 - FILT CGIL Foggia

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