Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2015 - FILT CGIL Foggia

Chapter 1SUMMARY1. During the period 1960–2002, the aggregate economic activities of the world measured by GrossDomestic Product (GDP) increased at an average annual rate of 3.4 per cent in real terms. For the period 1992–2002, GDP and GDP per capita grew at an average annual rate of 3.0 per cent and 1.6 per cent, respectively (seeChapter 3).2. Growth in air transport has been much greater than economic growth but is closely linked with it. Worldairline scheduled passenger traffic (domestic and international) measured in terms of passenger-kilometresperformed (PKPs) increased at an average annual rate of 8.1 per cent for the 1960–2002 period. For the periods1960–1972, 1972–1982, 1982–1992 and 1992–2002, passenger traffic grew at an average annual rate of 12.8, 7.6,5.4 and 4.3 per cent, respectively (see Table 2-1). While economic conditions continued to be the major driver ofair travel demand, security and safety concerns and so-called fear and hassle factors, triggered by theunprecedented events of 11 September 2001, had adverse effects on air traffic in 2001 and 2002. These effects,further amplified by the war in Iraq and the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), continuedin 2003 and were taken into account for the projection of future air traffic trends.3. World airline scheduled freight traffic (domestic and international) measured in terms oftonne-kilometres performed (TKPs) increased at an average annual rate of 8.5 per cent over the 1960–2002 period.For the periods 1960–1972, 1972–1982, 1982–1992 and 1992–2002, freight traffic grew at an average annual rateof 16.9, 8.2, 7.1 and 6.4 per cent, respectively (see Table 2-1).4. The growth in passenger and freight traffic demand over the 1960–2002 period resulted in comparablegrowth in capacity offered, while aircraft movements measured in terms of aircraft departures grew at a muchslower rate (2.7 per cent per annum) due primarily to a large increase in average aircraft size and in averagedistance flown per aircraft departure during this period. Historical traffic trends are described in Chapter 2.5. During the period 1960–2002, average world passenger yield measured in real terms (expressed in U.S.cents per PKP) declined at a rate of 2.5 per cent per annum. Freight and mail yield measured in real terms(expressed in U.S. cents per TKP) decreased at a rate of 3.5 per cent per annum. During the same period, unitcosts (operating cost per available tonne-kilometre (ATK)) measured in real terms declined at an average annualrate of 2.5 per cent (see Chapter 4).6. Future growth of air transport will continue to depend primarily on world economic and trade growth andairline cost developments (which are in turn heavily dependent on fuel prices). This growth will also beinfluenced, however, by the extent to which the industry faces up to major challenges such as fear and hasslefactors influencing consumer confidence, airport and airspace congestion, environmental protection andincreasing capital investment needs. The shape and size of the air transport system will also be affected bygovernmental decisions, notably those determining the type and extent of economic regulation of airlines. Airlinetraffic forecasts are presented in Chapter 5.7. For the forecast period 2002–2015, world economic growth (GDP) is expected to increase at an averageannual rate of 2.5 per cent in real terms. Airline yields are expected to decline at an annual rate of 0.5 per cent forthe first four years for passenger traffic and six years for freight traffic and to stabilize for the remaining years ofthe forecast horizon.1