Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2015 - FILT CGIL Foggia

Chapter 6. Forecasts of Aircraft Movements to the Year 2015 43200100Aircraft size(left-hand scale)15075Aircraft size (seats)100Load factor(right-hand scale)50Load factor (%)502501960 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 2002Source: ICAO Reporting Form A-1.Note: Excluding all-freight operations.Excluding the CIS.Figure 6-1. Average aircraft size and load factor — World (1960–2002)(Passenger aircraft on scheduled services)0air services within the European Union. The evolution of competitive strategies and market structures hascontinued since then. Adequate frequency and convenient interline and on-line connections, as well as low price,have become important competitive tools. A more liberal regulatory environment has also emerged gradually inother domestic markets and in international markets. The consequent increased priority given to frequency anddirect service has tended to increase the number of aircraft movements required to satisfy a given level of demand.7. The second factor is the arrival of new, mid-size, high-technology aircraft. The 1970s saw B-747, DC-10and L-1011 aircraft absorbed into airline fleets. These aircraft had favourable range and unit cost characteristicsand were at the top end of the size spectrum. In the 1980s, the airlines started to introduce mid-size aircraft suchas the B-757, B-767, MD-80 and A-310. This trend continued well into the 1990s, and the airlines witnessed theintroduction of additional mid-size aircraft such as the B-777, A-330 and A-340 into their fleets. Consequently,fleet replacement and expansion led to a modest decline in the average aircraft size during the late 1990s.8. Recent trends have shown that there has been a gradual deployment of mid-size to smaller aircraft onalmost all route groups as the need for more direct services has become a priority for travellers. Regulatorydevelopments and the characteristics of these new aircraft types may have also been prevailing factors for theirintroduction. This change has resulted in a proliferation of services aimed at cost-cutting measures by reducingflight time and the distance flown, especially on longer routes linking two regions. Route groups such as NorthAtlantic and Transpacific are the prime examples where such aircraft types have increasingly been introduced.