Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2015 - FILT CGIL Foggia

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Chapter 5. Forecasts of Airline Traffic to the Year 2015 37Table 5-2. ICAO scheduled passenger traffic Regions of airline registration (1992–2015)(ICAO Contracting States)Passenger-kilometres(billions)Average annual growthrate (per cent)Regional share of worldtraffic (per cent)Actual1992Actual2002Forecast2015 1992–2002 2002–2015 1992 2002 2015AfricaTotal 42.9 66.2 110 4.4 4.0 2.2 2.2 2.1International 34.9 57.5 100 5.1 4.3 3.6 3.3 3.0Domestic 8.0 8.7 10 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6Asia/PacificTotal 409.2 785.1 1 700 6.7 6.1 21.2 26.7 33.2International 276.9 537.6 1 220 6.9 6.5 28.2 31.0 36.9Domestic 132.3 247.5 480 6.5 5.2 14.0 20.5 26.5EuropeTotal 525.7 769.7 1 300 3.9 4.1 27.3 26.2 25.4International 330.8 643.8 1 150 6.9 4.6 33.7 37.2 34.7Domestic 194.9 125.9 150 4.3 1.4 20.6 10.4 8.3Middle EastTotal 53.4 106.7 240 7.2 6.4 2.8 3.6 4.7International 44.5 93.5 220 7.7 6.8 4.5 5.4 6.6Domestic 8.9 13.2 20 4.0 3.2 0.9 1.1 1.1North AmericaTotal 806.4 1 082.3 1 550 3.0 2.8 41.8 36.8 30.3International 238.8 322.4 490 3.0 3.3 24.3 18.6 14.8Domestic 567.6 759.9 1 060 3.0 2.6 60.0 62.8 58.6Latin America/CaribbeanTotal 90.9 132.3 220 3.8 4.0 4.7 4.5 4.3International 56.4 77.4 130 3.2 4.1 5.7 4.5 3.9Domestic 34.5 54.9 90 4.8 3.9 3.6 4.5 5.0WorldTotal 1 928.5 2 942.3 5 120 4.3 4.4 100.0 100.0 100.0International 982.3 1 732.2 3 310 5.8 5.1 100.0 100.0 100.0Domestic 946.2 1 210.1 1 810 2.5 3.1 100.0 100.0 100.0GLOBAL FREIGHT FORECASTS20. The econometric analysis, together with the assumptions mentioned earlier, resulted in a “most likely”projected growth rate of 5.5 per cent per annum for world scheduled freight tonne-kilometres for the period 2002–2015. This is about one percentage point lower than the 6.4 per cent per annum for the 1992–2002 period.Alternative assumptions concerning the underlying factors affecting air freight suggest a band of forecast growthrates ranging from a “low” of 3.5 per cent per annum to a “high” of 7.3 per cent per annum as illustrated inFigure 5-2.
38 Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2015Table 5-3. ICAO scheduled passenger traffic Intercontinental route groups (1992–2015)Actual1992Passengers carried(thousands)Actual2002Average annual growthrate (per cent)Forecast2015 1992–2002 2002–2015North Atlantic 40 900 64 900 123 600 4.7 5.1Mid-Atlantic 2 300 3 900 7 300 5.4 4.9South Atlantic 2 760 4 370 7 750 4.7 4.5Transpacific 18 121 24 279 55 916 3.0 6.6Between Europe and Asia/Pacific 15 000 30 000 57 300 7.2 5.1Between Europe and Africa 13 200 21 645 43 410 5.1 5.5Between Europe and Middle East 8 100 13 100 24 700 4.9 5.0Between North America andSouth AmericaBetween North America and CentralAmerica/Caribbean5 250 8 740 15 500 5.2 4.522 000 35 800 65 000 5.0 4.7Total above routes 127 631 206 734 400 476 4.9 5.2Other routes 171 836 337 876 629 524 7.0 4.9Total world 299 467 544 610 1 030 000 6.2 5.0Note: The historical database has been developed from several sources, including ICAO, ICAO traffic forecasting groups,IATA and aircraft manufacturers.21. Table 5-4 presents the ICAO forecasts of scheduled freight traffic (including international and domesticcomponents) in terms of both tonne-kilometres performed and tonnes carried. International freight traffic isexpected to grow more rapidly than domestic freight traffic, due partly to the relatively fast growth ofinternational commerce. Domestic freight is dominated by the more mature market of the United States, and thisis another reason for the moderate growth of total domestic traffic. Freight tonnes carried are expected to growmore slowly than freight tonne-kilometres because of a continuing increase in the average length of haul.REGIONAL FREIGHT FORECASTS22. The “most likely” forecasts of scheduled freight traffic by region of airline registration are presented inTable 5-5. The regional pattern of growth is rather similar to that for passenger traffic. Asia/Pacific and theMiddle East are expected to remain the fastest growing regions, although their forecast growth rates aresomewhat lower than the growth rates achieved during the 1992–2002 period.23. By the year 2015, airlines of the Asia/Pacific region are expected to increase their share of air freighttraffic by 4.4 percentage points to slightly over 40 per cent of total world freight, a share well above that of anyother region.
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