Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2015 - FILT CGIL Foggia

Chapter 6. Forecasts of Aircraft Movements to the Year 2015 45d) a growth in average aircraft stage length of 1 per cent per annum.(Because of data constraints, all assumptions and forecasts exclude the Commonwealth of Independent States.)FORECASTS OF WORLD SCHEDULED AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS14. The above analyses resulted in forecast average world annual growth rates of 4.2 per cent foraircraft-kilometres and 3.2 per cent for aircraft departures over the period 2002 to 2015.15. Over the forecast horizon, the growth rate for aircraft-kilometres is below the growth rate forpassenger-kilometres by only 0.2 percentage points per annum because of the small increase in load factor and nochange in aircraft size. Growth in aircraft departures is below the growth in aircraft-kilometres by one percentagepoint per annum, which is equal to the growth in stage length.16. In Table 6-1, the forecasts of aircraft movements are compared with actual past movements. The rates ofgrowth reported in the table are average measures over the relevant 10-year periods; the rates over shorter periodsmay vary. The growth in aircraft movements between 1992 and 2002 was almost the same when compared withthe growth between 1982 and 1992. This was a consequence of the combined effect of a lower traffic growth,slightly higher load factors and a decline in average aircraft size.2 1001 8001 500International servicesKilometres1 200900All services60030001960 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 2002Source: ICAO Reporting Form A-1.Note: Excluding the CIS.Figure 6-2. Average aircraft stage length — World (1960–2002)(Scheduled services of airlines of ICAO Contracting States)