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| Chamber in Review 活 動 重 溫 |Hong KongStill HasIts Mojo香 港 仍 具 魅 力Some of Hong Kong’s sharpest and most successfulbusiness minds expect the global economy tostruggle in 2012, but they feel the SAR is ideallypoised to capitalise on the downturn多 位 成 功 的 傑 出 本 地 商 家 均 預 期 , 全 球 經 濟 將 於 2012 年 陷 入 困 境 ,但 他 們 認 為 本 港 正 好 轉 危 為 機Hong Kong’s business community remains relativelyupbeat about the city’s economic prospects for thecoming year, despite the economic gloom draggingdown other economies around the world.Speakers at the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce’sBusiness Forum, held on December 13, said the economicdownturn has given Hong Kong a unique opportunityto shine, particularly in the financial services sector.“If you look at the troubles facing the other global financialcentres around the world, Hong Kong is clearly in spectacularshape,” said HKGCC Chairman Anthony Wu. “New York andLondon will have a difficult year ahead, not least because ofthe economic deficits, but if you look at Hong Kong our fiscalbalance sheet is in spectacular shape. So we should seize thisopportunity to strengthen our position.”Financial Secretary of the HKSAR Government John Tsangwas cautiously optimistic, due to the strong performance ofAsian economies, and in particular Mainland China.“While the overall economic outlook is fairly uncertain,a global economic swing towards Asia, and for that matter,towards the emerging economies, is ongoing and even accelerating,”he told the full-house during his opening address at theforum. “Emerging markets in Asia and elsewhere, particularlyMainland China, have become increasingly prominent growthdrivers for the global economy.”However, he and other speakers warned that the economywill not be without its challenges. Citing IMF’s ChristineLagarde’s comments that the global economy is entering, “adangerous new phase,” as a small and externally oriented economy,Hong Kong is at the mercy of external markets.Business prospectsReleasing the results of HKGCC’s Business Prospects Survey,conducted between October and November 2011, the Chamber’sChief Economist David O’Rear said 63.9% of respondentsbelieve the economy will grow between 2-4% in 2012. Healso put the Chamber’s official GDP forecast at 2% for 2012,but added that if the Euro zone starts to splinter that couldquickly become minus.Adding to the problem of slower external markets, is theproblem of rising inflation. Although the Mainland’s consumerprice index rise has slowed recently, the majority ofrespondents (51.8%) expect consumer prices in Hong Kong torise 4-6% in 2012.Victor Li, Vice Chairman of HKGCC, and Managing Director& Deputy Chairman, Cheung Kong (Holdings) Ltd, said10 January 2012 The Bulletin 工 商 月 刊