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Keynes, Uncertainty and Interest Rates 545 goods are more complete. But if that is the case there is a reason to demand that good even when the world is completely certain. Secondly, the only decision-theoretic justification for this demand for fixed returns could be the disquiet generated by not knowing the return. This follows from the formalisation of uncertainty advocated in sections 1 and 2. But this disquiet could just as easily be generated by risk as by uncertainty. So Keynes has not shown that uncertainty has any particular economic impact. That’s the bad news. The good news is that many of the arguments seem to work without the reliance on uncertainty.
Stalnaker on Sleeping Beauty The Sleeping Beauty puzzle provides a nice illustration of the approach to self-locating belief defended by Robert Stalnaker in Our Knowledge of the Internal World (Stalnaker, 2008a), as well as a test of the utility of that method. The setup of the Sleeping Beauty puzzle is by now fairly familiar. On Sunday Sleeping Beauty is told the rules of the game, and a (known to be) fair coin is flipped. On Monday, Sleeping Beauty is woken, and then put back to sleep. If, and only if, the coin landed tails, she is woken again on Tuesday after having her memory of the Monday awakening erased. 1 On Wednesday she is woken again and the game ends. There are a few questions we can ask about Beauty’s attitudes as the game progresses. We’d like to know what her credence that the coin landed heads should be (a) Before she goes to sleep Sunday; (b) When she wakes on Monday; (c) When she wakes on Tuesday; and (d) When she wakes on Wednesday? Standard treatments of the Sleeping Beauty puzzle ignore (d), run together (b) and (c) into one (somewhat ill-formed) question, and then divide theorists into ‘halfers’ or ‘thirders’ depending on how they answer it. Following Stalnaker, I’m going to focus on (b) here, though I’ll have a little to say about (c) and (d) as well. I’ll be following orthodoxy in taking 1 to be the clear answer to (a), and in taking the correct answers 2 to (b) and (c) to be independent of how the coin lands, though I’ll briefly question that assumption at the end. An answer to these four questions should respect two different kinds of constraints. The answer for day n should make sense ‘statically’. It should be a sensible answer to the question of what Beauty should do given what information she then has. And the answer should make sense ‘dynamically’. It should be a sensible answer to the question of how Beauty should have updated her credences from some earlier day, given rational credences on the earlier day. As has been fairly clear since the discussion of the problem in Elga (2000b), Sleeping Beauty is puzzling because static and dynamic considerations appear to push in different directions. The static considerations apparently favour a 1 answer to (b). 3 When Beauty wakes, there are three options available to her: It is Monday and the coin landed heads; It is Monday and the coin landed tails; It is Tuesday and the coin landed tails. If we can argue that each of those are equally probable given her evidence, we get the answer 1 3 swer to (b). The right answer to (a) is 1 2 . The dynamic considerations apparently favour a 1 2 an- . Nothing happens on Monday or Tuesday † Penultimate draft only. Under review at Thanks to Adam Elga, Elizabeth Harman, Ishani Maitra, Ted Sider, Robert Stanlaker and Seth Yelcin for comments on an earlier, and mistake-riddled, draft. 1 Note that I’m not assuming that Beauty’s memories are erased in other cases. This makes the particular version of the case I’m discussing a little different to the version popularised in Elga (2000b). This shouldn’t make any difference to most analyses of the puzzle, but it helps to clarify some issues.
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Online Papers Brian Weatherson Janu
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CONTENTS ii IV Vagueness 410 22 Man
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What Good are Counterexamples? The
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What Good are Counterexamples? 4 Ge
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What Good are Counterexamples? 6 it
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What Good are Counterexamples? 8 to
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What Good are Counterexamples? 10 f
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What Good are Counterexamples? 12 (
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What Good are Counterexamples? 14
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What Good are Counterexamples? 16 c
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What Good are Counterexamples? 18 T
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What Good are Counterexamples? 20 g
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What Good are Counterexamples? 22 p
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Morality, Fiction and Possibility 2
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David Lewis 52 1 Lewis’s Life and
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David Lewis 54 that, and it is comm
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David Lewis 56 co-ordination proble
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David Lewis 58 3.2 Analysis The bas
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David Lewis 60 getting us closer to
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David Lewis 62 the number of new te
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David Lewis 64 So, at least in the
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David Lewis 66 of a belief is a pro
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David Lewis 68 5 Humean Supervenien
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David Lewis 70 Instead of ranking c
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David Lewis 72 5.2 Causation In “
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David Lewis 74 parked cars influenc
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David Lewis 76 to there being at le
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David Lewis 78 In the first chapter
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David Lewis 80 6.3 Paradise on the
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David Lewis 82 problem, what he dub
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David Lewis 84 no classes? Can you
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David Lewis 86 Lewis doubted severa
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David Lewis 88 7.5 Ethics Lewis is
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Part II Epistemology
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Can We Do Without Pragmatic Encroac
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Knowledge, Bets and Interests 1 Kno
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Knowledge, Bets and Interests 118 S
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Knowledge, Bets and Interests 120 d
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Knowledge, Bets and Interests 122 M
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Knowledge, Bets and Interests 124 i
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Knowledge, Bets and Interests 126 T
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Knowledge, Bets and Interests 130 q
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Knowledge, Bets and Interests 132 p
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Knowledge, Bets and Interests 134 1
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Knowledge, Bets and Interests 136 w
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Knowledge, Bets and Interests 138 S
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Knowledge, Bets and Interests 140 P
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Defending Interest-Relative Invaria
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Deontology and Descartes’ Demon 1
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Luminous Margins 182 But Tolerance
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Luminous Margins 184 was reliable,
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Luminous Margins 186 he actually ha
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Luminous Margins 188 whether he fee
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Scepticism, Rationalism and Externa
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Disagreements, Philosophical and Ot
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Do Judgments Screen Evidence? 1 Scr
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Do Judgments Screen Evidence? 222 1
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Do Judgments Screen Evidence? 224 o
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Do Judgments Screen Evidence? 226 A
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Do Judgments Screen Evidence? 228 J
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Do Judgments Screen Evidence? 230 N
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Do Judgments Screen Evidence? 232 o
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Do Judgments Screen Evidence? 234 .
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Do Judgments Screen Evidence? 236 O
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Do Judgments Screen Evidence? 238 p
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Easy Knowledge and Other Epistemic
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Induction and Supposition 258 Note
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Induction and Supposition 260 this
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Induction and Supposition 262 one s
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Part III Language
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Epistemic Modals in Context 266 1 A
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Epistemic Modals in Context 268 (11
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Epistemic Modals in Context 270 pro
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Epistemic Modals in Context 272 not
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Epistemic Modals in Context 274 in
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Epistemic Modals in Context 276 But
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Epistemic Modals in Context 278 Mor
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Epistemic Modals in Context 280 Sin
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Epistemic Modals in Context 282 his
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Epistemic Modals in Context 284 Fir
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Epistemic Modals in Context 286 eve
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Epistemic Modals in Context 288 The
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Epistemic Modals in Context 290 jus
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Epistemic Modals in Context 292 we
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Epistemic Modals in Context 294 cer
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Epistemic Modals in Context 296 App
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Epistemic Modals in Context 298 So
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Attitudes and Relativism Data about
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Attitudes and Relativism 302 less c
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Attitudes and Relativism 304 contex
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Attitudes and Relativism 306 take a
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Attitudes and Relativism 308 proble
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Attitudes and Relativism 310 6. In
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Attitudes and Relativism 312 it mea
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Attitudes and Relativism 314 to the
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Conditionals and Indexical Relativi
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Indicatives and Subjunctives This p
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Indicatives and Subjunctives 342 (6
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Indicatives and Subjunctives 344 Th
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Indicatives and Subjunctives 346 3
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Indicatives and Subjunctives 348 (b
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Indicatives and Subjunctives 350 cl
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Indicatives and Subjunctives 352 4
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Assertion, Knowledge and Action Ish
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Assertion, Knowledge and Action 356
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No Royal Road to Relativism 374 are
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No Royal Road to Relativism 376 thi
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No Royal Road to Relativism 378 Haw
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No Royal Road to Relativism 380 the
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Epistemic Modals and Epistemic Moda
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Questioning Contextualism 398 be pr
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Questioning Contextualism 400 (2) D
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Questioning Contextualism 402 Lestr
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Questioning Contextualism 404 And i
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Questioning Contextualism 406 the p
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Questioning Contextualism 408 argum
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Part IV Vagueness
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Many Many Problems 412 we precisify
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Many Many Problems 414 If this is h
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Many Many Problems 416 influence ov
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Many Many Problems 418 our talk and
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Many Many Problems 420 Kilimanjaro(
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Many Many Problems 422 Non-Arbitrar
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Many Many Problems 424 two. 11 In t
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Many Many Problems 426 hard questio
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Vagueness as Indeterminacy Abstract
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Vagueness as Indeterminacy 430 But
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Vagueness as Indeterminacy 432 (f)
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Vagueness as Indeterminacy 434 can
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Vagueness as Indeterminacy 436 seem
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Vagueness as Indeterminacy 438 view
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Vagueness as Indeterminacy 440 Most
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True, Truer, Truest What the world
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True, Truer, Truest 444 But it has
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True, Truer, Truest 446 B2 Some cla
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True, Truer, Truest 448 [∀x: Fx]
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True, Truer, Truest 450 • All the
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True, Truer, Truest 452 (∨ In-lef
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True, Truer, Truest 454 Now (5) is
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True, Truer, Truest 456 True and Tr
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Vagueness and Pragmatics If Louis i
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Vagueness and Pragmatics 460 Option
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Vagueness and Pragmatics 464 in mak
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Vagueness and Pragmatics 466 (10) Y
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Vagueness and Pragmatics 468 premis
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Vagueness and Pragmatics 470 have b
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Vagueness and Pragmatics 472 be exp
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Vagueness and Pragmatics 476 5 Cons
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Vagueness and Pragmatics 478 As BH
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Vagueness and Pragmatics 480 truth
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Vagueness and Pragmatics 482 (32) a
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Vagueness and Pragmatics 484 links
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From Classical to Intuitionistic Pr
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The Asymmetric Magnets Problem 596
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Chopping Up Gunk John Hawthorne, Br
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Chopping Up Gunk 600 (3) Occupation
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Chopping Up Gunk 602 Further, in th
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Chopping Up Gunk 604 y and z in S,
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Intrinsic and Extrinsic Properties
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In Defense of a Kripkean Dogma Jona
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Defending Causal Decision Theory In
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Defending Causal Decision Theory 63
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Keynes and Wittgenstein 640 talks a
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Keynes and Wittgenstein 648 How do
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Keynes and Wittgenstein 650 in the
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Keynes and Wittgenstein 656 1cm? Ac
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Doing Philosophy With Words 666 ver
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Doing Philosophy With Words 668 Som
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Doing Philosophy With Words 670 If
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Doing Philosophy With Words 672 The
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Epistemicism, Parasites and Vague N
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Begging the Question and Bayesians
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Prankster’s Ethics 688 Possibly i
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Prankster’s Ethics 690 3 A Proble
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Prankster’s Ethics 692 self might
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Are You a Sim? 694 so what we know
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Are You a Sim? 698 way from knowing
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Humeans Aren’t Out of Their Minds
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Nine Objections to Steiner and Wolf
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Misleading Indexicals 712 prominent
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BIBLIOGRAPHY 714 Barker, Stephen. 1
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BIBLIOGRAPHY 718 DePaul, Michael an
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BIBLIOGRAPHY 720 Ellis, Brian. 1991
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BIBLIOGRAPHY 722 Geach, P. T. 1969.
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BIBLIOGRAPHY 732 —. 1986a. “Eve
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BIBLIOGRAPHY 734 —. 2003. “Thin
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BIBLIOGRAPHY 736 McCawley, James. 1
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BIBLIOGRAPHY 738 —. 1997. “Keyn
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BIBLIOGRAPHY 740 Romdenh-Romluc, Ko
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BIBLIOGRAPHY 742 Shoemaker, Sydney.
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BIBLIOGRAPHY 748 Wolfe, Tom. 2000.
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