learning with professionals - Higgins Counterterrorism Research ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Another, more complex model for defining intelligence scenarios employs the Taxonomy of Problem Types. 39 The table below illustrates the factors that customers and producers may take into account in articulating the nature of the intelligence problem and selecting a strategy for resolving it. Characteristics What is the question? Table 3. Taxonomy of Problem Types Source: Analysis course material, Joint Military Intelligence College, 1991 Simplistic Deterministic Obtain information How much? How many 39 Morgan D. Jones, The Thinker’s Toolkit (New York: Random House, 1995), 44-46, as elaborated by Thomas H. Murray, Sequoia Associates, Inc., Arlington, VA., in coursework at the Joint Military Intelligence College. 33 Problem Types Moderately Random Identify and rank all outcomes Severely Random Indeterminate Identify outcomes in unbounded situation Predict future events/ situations Role of facts Highest High Moderate Low Lowest Role of judgment Analytical task Find information Analytical method Analytical instrument Lowest Low Moderate High Highest Search sources Find/create formula Match data to formula Matching Mathematical formula Analytic output Fact Specific value or number Probability of error Generate all outcomes Decision theory; utility analysis Influence diagram, utility, probability Weighted alternative outcomes Lowest Very low Dependent on data quality Follow-up task None None Monitor for change Define potential outcomes Role playing and gaming Subjective evaluation of outcomes Plausible outcomes High to very high Repeated testing to determine true state Define futures factors Analyze models and scenarios Use of experts Elaboration on expected future Highest Exhaustive learning
As with the “Five Ws,” this model enables decisionmakers and analysts to assess their needs and capabilities in relation to a particular intelligence scenario. This ability to establish a baseline and set in motion a collection and production strategy is crucial to conducting a successful intelligence effort. Too often, both producers and customers waste valuable time and effort struggling to characterize for themselves a given situation, or perhaps worse, they hastily embark upon an action plan without determining its appropriateness to the problem. Employing a structured approach as outlined in the Taxonomy of Problem Types can help the players avoid these inefficiencies and take the first step toward generating clear intelligence requirements by defining both the intelligence problem and the requisite components to its solution. Following are example scenarios. The reader is encouraged to follow the scenarios down the columns of the taxonomy table, then generate new scenarios in similar fashion. INTELLIGENCE PROBLEM DEFINITION A GOVERNMENT SCENARIO The Severely Random problem type is one frequently encountered by the military in planning an operational strategy. This is the realm of wargaming. The initial intelligence problem is to identify all possible outcomes in an unbounded situation, so that commanders can generate plans for every contingency. The role of valid data is relatively minor, while the role of judgment is great, as history and current statistics may shed little light on how the adversary will behave in a hypothetical situation, and the progress and outcome of an operation against that adversary cannot be predicted with absolute accuracy. Therefore, the analytical task is to define and prepare for all potential outcomes. The analytical method is role playing and wargaming: placing oneself mentally in the imagined situation, and experiencing it in advance, even to the point of acting it out in a realistic setting. After experiencing the various scenarios, the players subjectively evaluate the outcomes of the games, assessing which ones may be plausible or expected to occur in the real world. The probability of error in judgment here is inherently high, as no one can be certain that the future will occur exactly as events unfolded in the game. However, repeated exercises can help to establish a measure of confidence, for practice in living out these scenarios may enable the players to more quickly identify and execute desired behaviors, and avoid mistakes in a similar real situation. A Business Scenario The Indeterminate problem type is one facing the entrepreneur in the modern telecommunications market. Predicting the future for a given proposed new technology or product is an extremely imprecise task fraught with potentially dire, or rewarding, consequences. The role of valid data is extremely minor here, whereas analytical judgments about the buying public’s future — and changing — needs and desires are crucial. Defining the key factors influencing the future market is the analytical task, to be approached via the analytical method of setting up models and scenarios: the if/then/else process. Experts in the proposed technology or market are then employed to analyze these possibilities. Their output is a synthesized assessment of how the future will look under various conditions with regard to the 34
Page 1 and 2: Joint Military Intelligence College
Page 3 and 4: The Joint Military Intelligence Col
Page 5 and 6: The History of Intelligence The San
Page 7 and 8: THE WORK OF INTELLIGENCE
Page 9 and 10: carefully considered positions on t
Page 11 and 12: ies out a significant part of Sherm
Page 13 and 14: To illustrate the fulfillment of Ke
Page 15 and 16: have I taken any example out of con
Page 17 and 18: Effective only for producers on a f
Page 19 and 20: “. . . the month of February . .
Page 21 and 22: paper — preferably a disintereste
Page 23 and 24: sentences — like a supercomma or
Page 25 and 26: Completeness The flip side of the c
Page 27 and 28: about the subject — that your pap
Page 29 and 30: gence. But the use of intelligence
Page 31 and 32: international conference highlighte
Page 33 and 34: PART I INTELLIGENCE PROCESS [I]ntel
Page 35 and 36: intelligence products may be descri
Page 37 and 38: Human Source Intelligence (HUMINT)
Page 39: Table 2. Illustrative Definitions o
Page 43 and 44: Types of Intelligence Requirements
Page 45 and 46: Table 6. Intelligence Values Source
Page 47 and 48: ■ Thirdly, the skilled analyst mu
Page 49 and 50: ely on only one source, because no
Page 51 and 52: needed, but it is up to the individ
Page 53 and 54: GETTING INTELLIGENCE RIGHT: THE POW
Page 55 and 56: ner, process improvement initiative
Page 57 and 58: FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES OF INTELLIGE
Page 59 and 60: product is shaped, analysts and man
Page 61 and 62: from an inductive reasoning process
Page 63 and 64: Information assimilation, the fitti
Page 65 and 66: Man is not rational, merely capable
Page 67 and 68: Documentation also helps minimize b
Page 69 and 70: Politicization. The Principle of Ob
Page 71 and 72: Classic errors in format include th
Page 73 and 74: Pitfalls that Limit Relevance Proce
Page 75 and 76: To the dismay of their customers, m
Page 77 and 78: motion picture analogy, time serves
Page 79 and 80: is extensible, universally open to
Page 81 and 82: Figure 5. Relating Process to Princ
Page 83 and 84: OPENING WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY: THE
Page 85 and 86: today’s strategic warning network
Page 87 and 88: with their perceptions of basic dem
Page 89 and 90: eliminate a threat or exploit an op
Page 91 and 92:
Opportunity-based warning is vulner
Page 93 and 94:
Except for varying opinions among p
Page 95 and 96:
The style of traditional Western ed
Page 97 and 98:
Figure 10. The NPIC Update. Source:
Page 99 and 100:
ut that “the drawing teacher has
Page 101 and 102:
Only the best tools can support a c
Page 103 and 104:
Figure 13. Harmon’s Version of a
Page 105 and 106:
After explaining the lesson behind
Page 107 and 108:
Figure 17. Pattern. Source: Kennedy
Page 109 and 110:
First Lieutenant Matthew S. Weingas
Page 111 and 112:
amount, 203 but psychologists have
Page 113 and 114:
When gifted seers depart the Colleg
Page 115 and 116:
SPY FICTION, SPY REALITY 211 Jon A.
Page 117 and 118:
Examples of this practice are fairl
Page 119 and 120:
gence officer. W. E. B. Griffins mu
Page 121 and 122:
you feel the appeal of the Resistan
Page 123 and 124:
Short, fat and of a quiet dispositi
Page 125 and 126:
assassinate Castro; the list includ
Page 127 and 128:
A number of interviews touched on a
Page 129 and 130:
and persuasive arguments you constr
Page 131 and 132:
and necessary in any discovery-rela
Page 133 and 134:
… it is rather more difficult for
Page 135 and 136:
I will, however, note one crucial p
Page 137 and 138:
drawn from Western history that soc
Page 139 and 140:
trained. Admittedly, we did not kno
Page 141 and 142:
HOMELAND SECURITY AND INTELLIGENCE:
Page 143 and 144:
Finally, we must ask how all this c
Page 145 and 146:
turbulent aftermath produced a lot
Page 147 and 148:
occurs is in the eyes of the behold
Page 149 and 150:
gence, it was evident that the cult
Page 151 and 152:
national intelligence estimates, re
Page 153 and 154:
The military is in a support role o
Page 155 and 156:
Committee on Governmental Affairs i
Page 157 and 158:
LEGAL FRAMEWORK AND POLITICAL/MILIT
Page 159 and 160:
cause and to their computer and lib
Page 161 and 162:
(1) Make membership of the House an
Page 163 and 164:
which the nation was founded, such
Page 165 and 166:
THE SAN CRISTOBAL TRAPEZOID By A. D
Page 167 and 168:
The entire intelligence-operations
Page 169 and 170:
Soviet leader’s responses through
Page 171 and 172:
SHIFT IN RESPONSIBILITY The Preside
Page 173 and 174:
The SS-5 IRBM, by contrast, had a r
Page 175 and 176:
vide the President and his advisers
Page 177 and 178:
A BAD DAY On 27 October, an Air For
Page 179 and 180:
proposed in your second letter whic
Page 181 and 182:
much to the security of the U.S. as
Page 183 and 184:
selected from among the best availa
Page 185 and 186:
EXPANDING THE HORIZON: THE ORIGINS
Page 187 and 188:
lis that it could not be relied upo
Page 189 and 190:
lot” of information not only abou
Page 191 and 192:
dent.” 353 On the same occasion,
Page 193 and 194:
sively for Israel’s use was prefe
Page 195 and 196:
ferent conclusions regarding the sa
Page 197 and 198:
Human sources require special handl
Page 199 and 200:
Getting the Case Released Except fo
Page 201 and 202:
This is particularly true when the
Page 203 and 204:
At this time there were 258 America
Page 205 and 206:
A Tradition of Tribal Violence Conf
Page 207 and 208:
Thursday, 7 April In his 0700 hours
Page 209 and 210:
they relied on occasion on a battal
Page 211 and 212:
The last convoy, led by Ambassador
Page 213 and 214:
TEACHING NOTE FOR USE WITH THIS CAS
Page 215 and 216:
THE CREATION OF THE NATIONAL IMAGER
Page 217 and 218:
highlights the role of the House an
Page 219 and 220:
The idea for such an agency seems t
Page 221 and 222:
deeply the SSCI was immersed in it.
Page 223 and 224:
sity of the guerilla warfare aimed
Page 225 and 226:
able, for the most part, to both th
Page 227 and 228:
Within the NFIP, the situation for
Page 229 and 230:
At this point, a NIMA Director-Desi
Page 231 and 232:
tions and a requirement for periodi
Page 233 and 234:
gorilla’’ on Capitol Hill. The
Page 235 and 236:
esolved the issue of jurisdiction o
Page 237 and 238:
tive branches, allowing a secret pa
Page 239 and 240:
SASC conference committee over the
Page 241 and 242:
every area. 484 The commission’s
Page 243 and 244:
HEALTH AND NATIONAL SECURITY George
Page 245 and 246:
ecognizable external military threa
Page 247 and 248:
A LIKELY DEMOCRATIC HEALTH SECURITY
Page 249 and 250:
High Commissioner for Refugees (UNH
Page 251 and 252:
Figure 24. Estimated Number of Peop
Page 253 and 254:
military and the UNHCR. This study
Page 255 and 256:
likely to occur (Boutros-Ghali a: 4
Page 257 and 258:
Strategic warning is an intelligenc
Page 259 and 260:
Early notification allows the opera
Page 261 and 262:
INTELLIGENCE SUPPORT TO PLANNING AN
Page 263 and 264:
Principal sources of information ar
Page 265 and 266:
While human intelligence is ideally
Page 267 and 268:
5) Unclassified intelligence produc
Page 269 and 270:
hegemonic power fighting various gr
Page 271 and 272:
the U.S. government have personal a
Page 273 and 274:
attack in a Tokyo subway and contin
Page 275 and 276:
Religion has effectively filled a v
Page 277 and 278:
who would contend that the current
Page 279 and 280:
The relevance of this discussion is
Page 281 and 282:
classified and is subject to strict
Page 283 and 284:
The RAC and its decentralized Insti
Page 285 and 286:
Although researchers at Asilomar we
Page 287 and 288:
The published report was the subjec
Page 289 and 290:
■ Fourth, university faculties ha
Page 291 and 292:
esearch community a free pass, maki
Page 293 and 294:
In response to the recommendations
Page 295 and 296:
“SALSA FOR CYBER SONICS,” EDUCA
Page 297 and 298:
“OSINT?” the cyber sonic asks.
Page 299 and 300:
As we meet today, the College’s a
Page 301 and 302:
INTELLIGENCE: AN ECONOMIC GOOD Mark
Page 303 and 304:
less, Congress “artificially” l
Page 305 and 306:
■ Synergistic Value. Synergy mean
Page 307 and 308:
Granted, because of the subjectivit
Page 309 and 310:
impact the calculation of time, in
Page 311 and 312:
so that an optimal strategy can be
Page 313 and 314:
cally areas which lack significant,
Page 315 and 316:
notably heroin and marijuana, to Am
Page 317 and 318:
ment model every administration has
Page 319 and 320:
IT ISN’T THE ACQUISITION, BUT THE
Page 321 and 322:
Just as military analysts seek enem
Page 323 and 324:
ing Intelligence by Principles of Q
Page 325 and 326:
■ Colonel Thomas W. Shreeve, Unit
Page 327 and 328:
More information can be found at ht
show all

learning with professionals - Higgins Counterterrorism Research ...

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?