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cannot be expected to become an expert quickly, the thirst for knowledge, analytic skills
and logical procedures of the dedicated analyst, can, over time, assisting in developing the
required expertise. Furthermore, a good North Korean missile analyst may be able to
make some useful statements about missiles in the Middle East — having dealt with the
same missiles in North Korea. But the level of capability is sharply reduced when the analyst
is working outside the area of his or her specialized knowledge. The North Korean
missile analyst, for example, may be limited in assessing the doctrine and method of
employing those missiles in the Middle East or in understanding the geopolitical environment
in which Middle Eastern decisionmaking takes place.
Information: The Raw Material of Analysis
Intelligence analysts have a wide array of classified and unclassified information
sources available. Unfortunately, the mediocre analyst is often trapped in the so-called
“inbox syndrome.”
That is, the only information considered is that which is delivered to the analyst’s desk,
or today, to the analyst’s computer. That is not enough; active information searching is critical.
Thus, first, the analyst needs to have a full array of information sources available. Poor
analysis, in an organization with meager information sources, is not the fault of the analyst,
but the fault of the manager who has failed to provide the information resources needed.
Assuming the information systems are available, the experienced analyst will not only
know how to use them, but will be a facile user, able to quickly ferret out information.
Systems that should be available include, at a minimum, Intelink, specialized data systems,
and the Internet. In addition, the analyst needs to be intimately familiar with the
intelligence organization’s library.
Information comes in a variety of qualities. Thus, the skilled analyst is a shrewd evaluator
of information. According to an old axiom, a reliable source does not always yield
reliable information, while a marginally reliable source sometimes provides accurate
information. A correct evaluation of the accuracy of information requires a mental database
against which the new information is compared, and multiple sources to verify it.
Unfortunately, the inexperienced analyst is more likely to accept all information as accurate,
sometimes with tragic consequences.
The use of multiple sources to ensure accuracy is critical to useful and actionable analysis.
Verification through the use of information from more than one intelligence source is
at the heart of all-source analysis. Increasingly, the competent analyst will ensure that
unclassified sources are added to the mix. Or, perhaps, it might be better to say that the
competent analyst will ensure that classified sources will be effectively integrated with his
or her overall unclassified database of knowledge about the subject under consideration.
Intelligence analysis is more difficult than academic analysis because the target of intelligence
interest frequently is taking active measures to hide the information, or to deceive the
analyst. Thus, multiple sources are a must. At times, however, the analyst may be forced to
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