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proposed new product. The probability of error in judgment is extremely high, as the decision is based entirely on mental models rather than experience; after all, neither the new product nor the future environment exists yet. Continual reassessment of the changing factors influencing the future can help the analysts adjust their conclusions and better advise decisionmakers on whether, and how, to proceed with the new product. Generating Intelligence Requirements Once they have agreed upon the nature of the intelligence problem at hand, the intelligence service and the customer together can next generate intelligence requirements to drive the production process. The intelligence requirement translates customer needs into an intelligence action plan. A good working relationship between the two parties at this stage will determine whether the intelligence produced in subsequent stages actually meets customer needs. However, the differing perspectives that each side brings to the negotiation process can make cooperation between them a difficult feat. 40 Customers want intelligence to guide them clearly in making policy and operational decisions. They may have little understanding of the intelligence process, and little patience for the subjectivity and conditionality of intelligence judgments. For customers, intelligence can be just one of many influences on their decisionmaking, and may be given little weight in comparison to other, more readily digested, familiar, or policy-oriented inputs. However, intelligence is neither designed nor equipped to meet these customer expectations. 41 As a discipline, intelligence seeks to remain an independent, objective advisor to the decisionmaker. The realm of intelligence is that of “fact,” considered judgment, and probability, but not prescription. It does not tell the customer what to do to meet an agenda, but rather, identifies the factors at play, and how various actions may affect outcomes. Intelligence tends to be packaged in standard formats and, because of its methodical approach, may not be delivered within the user’s ideal timeframe. For all these reasons, the customer may not see intelligence as a useful service. 42 Yet, somehow the intelligence producer and customer must reconcile their differing perspectives in order to agree on intelligence requirements and make the production process work. Understanding each other’s views on intelligence is the first step toward improving the relationship between them. The next step is communication. Free interaction among the players will foster agreement on intelligence priorities and result in products that decisionmakers recognize as meaningful to their agendas, yet balanced by rigorous analysis. 43 In addition, as discussed below, customer feedback on production quality will lead to better definition of future intelligence problems and requirements. 40 Arthur S. Hulnick, “The Intelligence Producer-Policy Consumer Linkage: A Theoretical Approach,” Intelligence and National Security, 1, No. 2, (May 1986): 214-216. 41 Hulnick, “Producer-Policy Consumer Linkage,” 215-216. 42 Hulnick, “Producer-Policy Consumer Linkage,” 216. 43 Adapted from Michael A. Turner, “Setting Analytical Priorities in U.S. Intelligence,” International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 9, No. 3, (Fall 1996): 320-322. 35
Types of Intelligence Requirements Having thus developed an understanding of customer needs, the intelligence service may proactively and continuously generate intelligence collection and production requirements to maintain customer-focused operations. Examples of such internally generated specifications include analyst-driven, events-driven, and scheduled requirements. The table below briefly describes them. 44 Table 4. Types of Producer-Generated Intelligence Collection and Production Requirements Source: Hulnick Analyst-driven Based on knowledge of customer and issues Events-driven In response to time-sensitive relevant events Scheduled Periodic activities to document and update target status Further distinctions among intelligence requirements include timeliness and scope, or level, of intended use. Timeliness of requirements is established to meet standing (longterm) and ad hoc (short-term) needs. When the customer and intelligence service agree to define certain topics as long-term intelligence issues, they generate a standing requirement to ensure that a regular production effort can, and will, be maintained against that target. The customer will initiate an ad hoc requirement upon realizing a sudden shortterm need for a specific type of intelligence, and will specify the target of interest, the coverage timeframe, and the type of output desired. The scope or level of intended use of the intelligence may be characterized as strategic or tactical. Strategic intelligence is geared to a policymaker dealing with big-picture issues affecting the mission and future of an organization: the U.S. President, corporate executives, high-level diplomats, or military commanders of major commands or fleets. Tactical intelligence serves players and decisionmakers “on the ground” engaged in current operations: trade negotiators, marketing and sales representatives, deployed military units, or product developers. Table 5. Types of Customer-Defined Intelligence Requirements Source: Author Timeliness Short-term (ad hoc) Long-term (standing) Scope Broad (strategic) Narrow (tactical) 44 Adapted from Arthur S. Hulnick, “Managing Intelligence Analysis: Strategies for Playing the End Game,” International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence 2, No. 3 (Fall 1988): 327. 36
Page 1 and 2: Joint Military Intelligence College
Page 3 and 4: The Joint Military Intelligence Col
Page 5 and 6: The History of Intelligence The San
Page 7 and 8: THE WORK OF INTELLIGENCE
Page 9 and 10: carefully considered positions on t
Page 11 and 12: ies out a significant part of Sherm
Page 13 and 14: To illustrate the fulfillment of Ke
Page 15 and 16: have I taken any example out of con
Page 17 and 18: Effective only for producers on a f
Page 19 and 20: “. . . the month of February . .
Page 21 and 22: paper — preferably a disintereste
Page 23 and 24: sentences — like a supercomma or
Page 25 and 26: Completeness The flip side of the c
Page 27 and 28: about the subject — that your pap
Page 29 and 30: gence. But the use of intelligence
Page 31 and 32: international conference highlighte
Page 33 and 34: PART I INTELLIGENCE PROCESS [I]ntel
Page 35 and 36: intelligence products may be descri
Page 37 and 38: Human Source Intelligence (HUMINT)
Page 39 and 40: Table 2. Illustrative Definitions o
Page 41: As with the “Five Ws,” this mod
Page 45 and 46: Table 6. Intelligence Values Source
Page 47 and 48: ■ Thirdly, the skilled analyst mu
Page 49 and 50: ely on only one source, because no
Page 51 and 52: needed, but it is up to the individ
Page 53 and 54: GETTING INTELLIGENCE RIGHT: THE POW
Page 55 and 56: ner, process improvement initiative
Page 57 and 58: FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES OF INTELLIGE
Page 59 and 60: product is shaped, analysts and man
Page 61 and 62: from an inductive reasoning process
Page 63 and 64: Information assimilation, the fitti
Page 65 and 66: Man is not rational, merely capable
Page 67 and 68: Documentation also helps minimize b
Page 69 and 70: Politicization. The Principle of Ob
Page 71 and 72: Classic errors in format include th
Page 73 and 74: Pitfalls that Limit Relevance Proce
Page 75 and 76: To the dismay of their customers, m
Page 77 and 78: motion picture analogy, time serves
Page 79 and 80: is extensible, universally open to
Page 81 and 82: Figure 5. Relating Process to Princ
Page 83 and 84: OPENING WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY: THE
Page 85 and 86: today’s strategic warning network
Page 87 and 88: with their perceptions of basic dem
Page 89 and 90: eliminate a threat or exploit an op
Page 91 and 92: Opportunity-based warning is vulner
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Except for varying opinions among p
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The style of traditional Western ed
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Figure 10. The NPIC Update. Source:
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ut that “the drawing teacher has
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Only the best tools can support a c
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Figure 13. Harmon’s Version of a
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After explaining the lesson behind
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Figure 17. Pattern. Source: Kennedy
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First Lieutenant Matthew S. Weingas
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amount, 203 but psychologists have
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When gifted seers depart the Colleg
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SPY FICTION, SPY REALITY 211 Jon A.
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Examples of this practice are fairl
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gence officer. W. E. B. Griffins mu
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you feel the appeal of the Resistan
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Short, fat and of a quiet dispositi
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assassinate Castro; the list includ
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A number of interviews touched on a
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and persuasive arguments you constr
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and necessary in any discovery-rela
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… it is rather more difficult for
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I will, however, note one crucial p
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drawn from Western history that soc
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trained. Admittedly, we did not kno
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HOMELAND SECURITY AND INTELLIGENCE:
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Finally, we must ask how all this c
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turbulent aftermath produced a lot
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occurs is in the eyes of the behold
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gence, it was evident that the cult
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national intelligence estimates, re
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The military is in a support role o
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Committee on Governmental Affairs i
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LEGAL FRAMEWORK AND POLITICAL/MILIT
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cause and to their computer and lib
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(1) Make membership of the House an
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which the nation was founded, such
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THE SAN CRISTOBAL TRAPEZOID By A. D
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The entire intelligence-operations
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Soviet leader’s responses through
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SHIFT IN RESPONSIBILITY The Preside
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The SS-5 IRBM, by contrast, had a r
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vide the President and his advisers
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A BAD DAY On 27 October, an Air For
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proposed in your second letter whic
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much to the security of the U.S. as
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selected from among the best availa
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EXPANDING THE HORIZON: THE ORIGINS
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lis that it could not be relied upo
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lot” of information not only abou
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dent.” 353 On the same occasion,
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sively for Israel’s use was prefe
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ferent conclusions regarding the sa
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Human sources require special handl
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Getting the Case Released Except fo
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This is particularly true when the
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At this time there were 258 America
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A Tradition of Tribal Violence Conf
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Thursday, 7 April In his 0700 hours
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they relied on occasion on a battal
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The last convoy, led by Ambassador
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TEACHING NOTE FOR USE WITH THIS CAS
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THE CREATION OF THE NATIONAL IMAGER
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highlights the role of the House an
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The idea for such an agency seems t
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deeply the SSCI was immersed in it.
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sity of the guerilla warfare aimed
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able, for the most part, to both th
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Within the NFIP, the situation for
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At this point, a NIMA Director-Desi
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tions and a requirement for periodi
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gorilla’’ on Capitol Hill. The
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esolved the issue of jurisdiction o
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tive branches, allowing a secret pa
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SASC conference committee over the
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every area. 484 The commission’s
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HEALTH AND NATIONAL SECURITY George
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ecognizable external military threa
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A LIKELY DEMOCRATIC HEALTH SECURITY
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High Commissioner for Refugees (UNH
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Figure 24. Estimated Number of Peop
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military and the UNHCR. This study
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likely to occur (Boutros-Ghali a: 4
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Strategic warning is an intelligenc
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Early notification allows the opera
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INTELLIGENCE SUPPORT TO PLANNING AN
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Principal sources of information ar
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While human intelligence is ideally
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5) Unclassified intelligence produc
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hegemonic power fighting various gr
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the U.S. government have personal a
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attack in a Tokyo subway and contin
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Religion has effectively filled a v
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who would contend that the current
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The relevance of this discussion is
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classified and is subject to strict
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The RAC and its decentralized Insti
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Although researchers at Asilomar we
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The published report was the subjec
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■ Fourth, university faculties ha
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esearch community a free pass, maki
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In response to the recommendations
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“SALSA FOR CYBER SONICS,” EDUCA
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“OSINT?” the cyber sonic asks.
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As we meet today, the College’s a
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INTELLIGENCE: AN ECONOMIC GOOD Mark
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less, Congress “artificially” l
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■ Synergistic Value. Synergy mean
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Granted, because of the subjectivit
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impact the calculation of time, in
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so that an optimal strategy can be
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cally areas which lack significant,
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notably heroin and marijuana, to Am
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ment model every administration has
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IT ISN’T THE ACQUISITION, BUT THE
Page 321 and 322:
Just as military analysts seek enem
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ing Intelligence by Principles of Q
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■ Colonel Thomas W. Shreeve, Unit
Page 327 and 328:
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