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PREFACE<br />

xiii<br />

Sources: How Do We Know<br />

What We Know?<br />

One of the single most important concerns of any leader—<br />

military, business, or civilian—is intelligence. Not the IQ<br />

kind (I’ve known some good leaders who are not so bright),<br />

but the kind that yields information. What gossip and rumors<br />

do we listen to? Why? Whose report is to be believed?<br />

When do we trust the reports of Wall Street analysts? Does<br />

a particular board informant have an agenda unknown to<br />

us? Where did the consultant get her information, and why<br />

should we believe her? Do we trust this industry analyst?<br />

Is our intelligence about the competition accurate? Is our<br />

internal strategic-planning analysis of strengths accurate, or<br />

is it overstated for political reasons? Similarly, are our weaknesses<br />

understated? You can see (and you know from experience)<br />

that knowledge is power. Power, though, derives<br />

from accurate intelligence, accurate information, and accurate<br />

knowledge. The questions are: How do you know what<br />

information is accurate, and what do you believe?<br />

In a parallel vein, how do historians know what they<br />

know about Alexander the Great, and why should you believe<br />

them? If you can’t believe the sources, then are you<br />

learning bogus lessons? What knowledge do we believe?<br />

Why? When?<br />

Sources: Accounting Irregularities<br />

In historical writing, we compare the various sources of<br />

data and make informed judgments, just like any decision<br />

maker in any organization.

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