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PREFACE<br />
xiii<br />
Sources: How Do We Know<br />
What We Know?<br />
One of the single most important concerns of any leader—<br />
military, business, or civilian—is intelligence. Not the IQ<br />
kind (I’ve known some good leaders who are not so bright),<br />
but the kind that yields information. What gossip and rumors<br />
do we listen to? Why? Whose report is to be believed?<br />
When do we trust the reports of Wall Street analysts? Does<br />
a particular board informant have an agenda unknown to<br />
us? Where did the consultant get her information, and why<br />
should we believe her? Do we trust this industry analyst?<br />
Is our intelligence about the competition accurate? Is our<br />
internal strategic-planning analysis of strengths accurate, or<br />
is it overstated for political reasons? Similarly, are our weaknesses<br />
understated? You can see (and you know from experience)<br />
that knowledge is power. Power, though, derives<br />
from accurate intelligence, accurate information, and accurate<br />
knowledge. The questions are: How do you know what<br />
information is accurate, and what do you believe?<br />
In a parallel vein, how do historians know what they<br />
know about Alexander the Great, and why should you believe<br />
them? If you can’t believe the sources, then are you<br />
learning bogus lessons? What knowledge do we believe?<br />
Why? When?<br />
Sources: Accounting Irregularities<br />
In historical writing, we compare the various sources of<br />
data and make informed judgments, just like any decision<br />
maker in any organization.