Technologies · Systems · Solutions - Dürr

72
GDP development
Amounts in %
2005* 2004
World 3.2 3.9
Germany 1.5 1.7
EU 2.3 2.4
United States 3.4 4.4
Eastern Asia 4.7 5.4
China 8.0 9.0
Japan 2.1 4.2
* Forecast
Source: German Institute for
Economic Research (DIW)
Outlook
Global economic growth expected to slow
From today’s perspective, we expect the global economy to grow by 3.2% in 2005 and
hence slower than last year. On the whole, however, the forces stimulating the
economy seem to be strong enough for a slide into a downswing is not to be expected
despite high raw materials prices. Nevertheless, the uncertain development of
oil prices and exchange rates makes it difficult to forecast with certainty.
We expect that many central banks will tighten their monetary policy to avert inflationary
fears. In addition, the United States will probably rein in its expansionary fiscal
policy further, which should take some wind out of the economy’s sails. In Asia, economic
growth will be fueled primarily by domestic demand. The increase in output
in the euro area will probably remain of the same order of magnitude as in 2004.
Automotive industry: Market opportunities by launching model offensives
We anticipate that the automotive industry will maintain its current pace of innovation
and quickly launch new models. Such model offensives afford us good market opportunities,
since we can offer cost-cutting technologies to manufacturers and their suppliers,
particularly from our Paint and Assembly Systems division.
In Western Europe, the automotive industry will continue to invest in the conversion
of existing plants in the current year. Various European and Asian automakers are considering
expanding their production capacities in North America – in part to become
more independent of exchange rate risks and in part to increase their sales volumes
in the world’s biggest automobile market. This could result in a corresponding
demand for our solutions.
New production facilities will also continue to be established primarily in Eastern
Europe and Asia. Besides China, India and Russia offer the greatest growth potential
for the automotive industry. Therefore, we are also going to increase our activities
in those markets. However, it must be expected in the emerging markets that intense
price wars among manufacturers will also increase cost pressures on suppliers.
The trend toward diesel engines will gain momentum worldwide. For this reason, we
expect demand to increase for corresponding cleaning and balancing systems, such
as those offered by our Measuring and Process Systems division.
Paint and Assembly Systems
The Paint and Assembly Systems division does not expect a substantial recovery
in demand for 2005, since the automotive industry is still living on the high capital
expenditures of the years 2001 to 2003. We expect that market development in
Western Europe and the United States will be subdued and are basing our planning
for 2005 on a sales figure that is around 10% lower. Due to the large number of
plants and lines built by us, we see good opportunities in the modernization business.
That allows our customers to achieve advantages in respect of quality, costs, and
environmental compatibility. In regional terms, we see continued good market potential
in Asia.