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A First Course in Linear Algebra, 2017a

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374 Spectral Theory<br />

=<br />

⎡<br />

⎣<br />

102<br />

164<br />

434<br />

⎤<br />

⎦<br />

We could progress <strong>in</strong> this manner to f<strong>in</strong>d the populations after 10 time periods. However from our<br />

above discussion, we can simply calculate (A n X 0 ) i ,wheren denotes the number of time periods which<br />

have passed. Therefore, we compute the populations <strong>in</strong> each location after 10 units of time as follows.<br />

⎡<br />

⎣<br />

X 10 = A 10 X 0<br />

⎡<br />

⎤<br />

x 110<br />

x 210<br />

⎦ =<br />

x 310<br />

=<br />

⎣<br />

⎡<br />

⎣<br />

.6 0 .1<br />

.2 .8 0<br />

.2 .2 .9<br />

⎤<br />

⎦<br />

10 ⎡<br />

⎣<br />

115.08582922<br />

120.13067244<br />

464.78349834<br />

100<br />

200<br />

400<br />

⎤<br />

S<strong>in</strong>ce we are speak<strong>in</strong>g about populations, we would need to round these numbers to provide a logical<br />

answer. Therefore, we can say that after 10 units of time, there will be 115 residents <strong>in</strong> location one, 120<br />

<strong>in</strong> location two, and 465 <strong>in</strong> location three.<br />

♠<br />

A second important application of Markov matrices is the concept of random walks. Suppose a walker<br />

has m locations to choose from, denoted 1,2,···,m. Let a ij refer to the probability that the person will<br />

travel to location i from location j. Aga<strong>in</strong>, this requires that<br />

k<br />

∑<br />

i=1<br />

a ij = 1<br />

In this context, the vector X n =[x 1n ···x mn ] T conta<strong>in</strong>s the probabilities x <strong>in</strong> the walker ends up <strong>in</strong> location<br />

i,1≤ i ≤ m at time n.<br />

Example 7.35: Random Walks<br />

Suppose three locations exist, referred to as locations 1,2 and 3. The Markov matrix of probabilities<br />

A =[a ij ] is given by<br />

⎡<br />

⎤<br />

0.4 0.1 0.5<br />

⎣ 0.4 0.6 0.1 ⎦<br />

0.2 0.3 0.4<br />

If the walker starts <strong>in</strong> location 1, calculate the probability that he ends up <strong>in</strong> location 3 at time n = 2.<br />

⎦<br />

⎤<br />

⎦<br />

Solution. S<strong>in</strong>ce the walker beg<strong>in</strong>s <strong>in</strong> location 1, we have<br />

⎡ ⎤<br />

1<br />

X 0 = ⎣ 0 ⎦<br />

0<br />

The goal is to calculate x 32 . To do this we calculate X 2 ,us<strong>in</strong>gX n+1 = AX n .<br />

X 1 = AX 0

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