Economic Effects of Sustainable Sanitation - SuSanA

Case Study Kampala
Table 7: Sensitivity of system A to increasing fuel- and tank truck/truck prices, incentive costs, project
lifetime, supply chain failure and transport distance reduction
Small scale II Large scale
N demand [kg/month] 1 808 1 808 11 663 11 663
Scenario
Current fuel
price
Fuel price + 25%
Current fuel
price
Fuel price + 25%
Mon. return on sales [%] 10.87 3.01 21.7 13.79
Effect [%]
(Fuel price incr.: 25%) 82
-72.31 -36.45
Scenario
Current tank
truck/truck price
Tank truck/truck
price + 25%
Current tank
truck/truck price
Tank truck/truck
price + 25%
Mon. return on sales [%] 10.87 5.40 21.7 17.04
Effect [%]
(Truck price incr.: 25%) 83
-50.32 -21.47
Scenario
Current incentive
level
Incentive level +
25%
Current incentive
level
Incentive level +
25%
Mon. return on sales [%] 10.87 6.5 21.7 17.34
Effect [%]
(incent. incr.: 25%) 84
-40.20 -20.09
Scenario
5 years project
lifetime
8 years project
lifetime
5 years project
lifetime
8 years project
lifetime
Mon. return on sales [%] 10.87 19.68 21.7 29.98
Effect [%]
(incr. proj. lt.)
81.05 38.16
Scenario
No supply chain
failure
Supply chain
failure 3d/m
No supply chain
failure
Supply chain
failure 3d/m
Mon. return on sales [%] 10.87 8.77 21.7 19.59
Effect [%]
(sup. chain failure)
-19.32 -9.72
Scenario
50 km: storage
site - farm
25 km: storage site
- farm
50 km: storage
site - farm
25 km: storage site
- farm
Mon. return on sales [%] 10.87 23.96 21.7 41.5
Effect [%]
(dist. reduction)
120.42 91.24
System B
Same as in system A the order of the items should not be mis- or over-interpreted, since the
input parameters of the modifications are not comparable (cf. Table 8). The reduction of the
distance storage site to farm by 50% led to the biggest effect. The return on sales rose by
127.27% in the small scale II- and 66.46% in the large scale scenario. The extension of the
project lifetime caused the same effect in the small scale II scenario (127.27%) and the third
largest in the large scale scenario (31.46%), illustrating the contribution of the depreciation or
lifetime of the investments. Increasing nutrient prices, which are not applicable for system A,
but have been included in this analysis, resulted in a reduction of the return on sales of
102.92% and 35.56% in the small scale II- and large scale scenario, respectively. Since urea
is utilised in the sanitisation process of faeces, the price changes of synthetic fertiliser directly
affect the profitability of the logistics system. Increasing fuel prices resulted in a reduction of
82 At the time of data collection (late 2009) the price for 1 litre of diesel fuel was 0.71 EUR.
83 Tank truck and truck prices are based upon interview information with logistic service providers.
84 The incentive for the delivery of one container (jerrycan or faeces-box) is 0.04 EUR.
68