1957 - United Nations Statistics Division

(10) Northern and Western Europe: Belgium, Channel
Islands, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Isle
of Man, Luxembourg, Monaco, Netherlands, Norway,
Sweden, United Kingdom.
(11) Central Europe: Austria, Czechoslovakia, Germany,
Hungary, Liechtenstein, Poland, Switzerland.
(12) Southern Europe: Albania, Andorra, Bulgaria,
Gibraltar, Greece, Italy, Malta and Gozo, Portugal, Romania,
San Marino, Spain, Vatican, Yugoslavia.
(13) Oceania: the entire region.
(14) USSR: Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.
Limitations: Being derived essentially from data in Table 1,
the estimates of population and area in Table 2 are subject
to all the basic limitations set forth in connexion
with that table.
Because of the uncertainty of knowledge with respect
to many segments of the world's population, it was felt
necessary to indicate for each 1956 estimate the percentage
error to which it was subject. Possible errors in the
regional estimates were compounded in part on the assumption
that the errors in the estimates for each country
are not entirely unrelated and, therefore, they tend to
compensate each other in the regional totals. Errors were
similarly compounded for continental totals and the
world total. The results were expressed as percentages
relating to the figures for 1956, rounded to the nearest of
the digits, 1, 2, or 5. Because of its large size, the possible
error in the estimate for China may contribute substantially
to the possible error in the total for Asia, and even
in the estimated total world population.
Attention should also be drawn to the analysis of population
estimates by method of construction included in
the 1956 Demographic Yearbook (Table G, p. 12) where
it is shown that estimates for 78 per cent of the world's
population in 1955 were based on census counts made
since 1945, while 9 per cent originated in partial censuses,
surveys, or older enumerations, and 12 per cent had conjectural
estimates for a base. Table H on p. 13 of the same
Yearbook analyses the method of time adjustment. It
shows that only 25% of the countries of the world used
the natural increase method in 1955. The situation varies,
of course, from region to region and it changes also with
time. With the taking of more censuses, estimates will
have firmer bases.
Table 3
Estimates of total population for each year 1940-1957
are presented in Table 3. All figures are given in thousands,
those reported in units having been rounded in the
Statistical Office, using the digit five (5) in the hundreds
place as the criterion for upward adjustment.
Unless otherwise indicated, all estimates relate to the
modified present-in-area population within present geographic
boundaries. This type of population, and its
comparability with the de jure estimates, has been discussed
in detail on p. 15 and in the 1955 and 1956 Demographic
Yearbooks. In Table 3, major differences which
exist between the population shown and the standard
modified de facto have been indicated in footnotes. Also,
for emphasis and clarity-especially during war years-the
disposition of certain major segments of population such
21
as armed forces has been indicated in Table 3, even
though this disposition does not constitute disagreement
with the standard.
Estimates relate to the midpoint (I July) of the specified
calendar year. In cases where official estimates were
available for 31 December only, the arithmetic mean of
two consecutive end-of-year estimates was computed and
presented in this table as the midyear estimate. In a few
cases, official estimates regularly prepared for a date other
than 1 July or 31 December are given in the table, accompanied
by a note indicating the date to which they refer.
Census returns have been used when an estimate for
the year in question was not available and, in such cases,
they appear in italics for easy identification. For years
in which the results of a current enumeration as well as
an estimate were available, the census figure has been
shown in place of the midyear estimate if the two figures
appeared not to be in sufficient agreement.
Coverage: This table, containing data for 205 geographic
areas, is one of the most comprehensive published in the
Yearbook. Major countries are included even if the recent
span of years for which estimates are available is short.
However, smaller areas are excluded unless the period of
years is relatively extensive.
The policy of Table 3 is to show total population in
so far as possible, rather than that for sub-national segments,
although population series required for computation
of vital-statistics rates are normally included irrespective
of the scope. Data for sub-national segmentseither
geographic or ethnic components-are shown in
smaller-type size for easy identification.
Limitations: Comparability of population estimates is limited
by the factors set forth on p. 15, namely by the variation
in the meaning attached to the terms de jure and de
facto in defining the total count, by the accuracy of the
census on which many estimates are based, and by the
method of estimate construction.
As pointed out in the general notes above, the code
used to describe the method of construction, and hence
the quality of the 1956 estimates, is not strictly applicable
to estimates other than those for that year. Nevertheless,
since countries tend to maintain the same procedures, it
may be assumed that estimates for previous years were
probably produced by the same or similar method. 13
However, it must also be pointed out that when estimates
are based on a census, the longer the post-censal period,
the less accurate the estimates tend to be.
Intercensal estimates are usually reviewed when the results
of a new census become available. Failure to do so
results in lack of comparability in the series. However,
in a number of cases the results of censuses taken in 1955
and 1956 are still in a preliminary stage, and intercensal
estimates have not yet been revised and brought into
agreement with the new population counts. In some of
these series, the need for revision is obvious; in others,
only minor fluctuations are evident in the unrevised data.
Series which show an irregularity of this type are marked
with a section mark (§) in the stub and a vertical bar
(I) at the break in continuity.
13 See 1956 Demographic Yearbook beginning on p. II for analysis
of method used in producing 1955 estimates.