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N.V. Kolari MENADŽMENT U SAOBRAAJU ORGANIZACIJA POSLOVNE LOGISTIKE SAOBRAAJNIH PREDUZEA saobraaja. Cilj ovih prognoza bio je utvrivanje buduih robnih tokova i razvoja putnikog saobraaja na evropskim magistralnim pravcima do, u to vreme daleke, 2000. godine. U prognozama koje su radili Institut IFO i Meunarodna železnika unija za istraživanje je primenjivan metod korelacije: za robni saobraaj korelacija kretanja robnog saobraaja i bruto proizvoda, a za putniki saobraaj korelacija kretanja obima putnikog saobraaja i nacionalnog dohotka. Meutim, ispostavilo se da se do realno ostvarljivih prognoza razvoja saobraaja nije moglo doi iskljuivo primenom ovih korelacija, pa je u istraživanja bilo potrebno uvesti i kvalitativnu analizu faktora predvianja. Inae, prognoziranje kao proces aktivnosti obuhvata dva aspekta: 1. kvantitativno utvrivanje parametara obima saobraaja; 2. primenu odgovarajuih modela prognoze za utvrivanje budueg obima saobraaja. 2.1.1. KVANTITATIVNO UTVRIVANJE PARAMETARA OBIMA SAOBRAAJA Nakon izvršenih analiza tržišta sistematizuju se sledei parametri obima prevoza koji se koriste u procesu prognoziranja: Za robni saobraaj: Obim prevoza robe izražen u tonama i neto tonskim kilometrima po sledeoj strukturi: osnovne grupe robe (prema statistikim biltenima); pošiljke (kolske i denane); po regionima (unutar regiona), i to: kratkolinijski saobraaj; i dugolinijski saobraaj; 256 274
N.V. Kolari MENADŽMENT U SAOBRAAJU ORGANIZACIJA POSLOVNE LOGISTIKE SAOBRAAJNIH PREDUZEA meuregionalni saobraaj; tranzitni saobraaj preko regiona; meunarodni saobraaj (uvoz, izvoz i tranzit robe). Za putniki saobraaj: obim prevoza putnika izražen u putnikim kilometrima i broju putnika po sledeoj strukturi: po vrstama usluga i to: linijski saobraaj, arter (grupna putovanja); po segmentima tržišta (u železnikom saobraaju): po kategoriji vozova (expres, brzi, IC, putniki); po razredima (prvi, drugi); po motivima putovanja; po regionima; gradski i prigradski saobraaj; meugradski saobraaj; i meunarodni saobraaj. Navedena struktura parametara može se, u zavisnosti od cilja istraživanja, sužavati ili proširivati. 2.1.2. MODELI PROGNOZE U cilju prognoziranja tražnje za saobraajnim uslugama na saobraajnom tržištu mogu se primenjivati uglavnom svi metodi obraeni u opštoj teoriji marketinga. Meutim, s obzirom na specifinosti saobraajne usluge kao proizvoda koji se ne može odvojiti i prodavati izvan procesa proizvodnje na nekim drugim tržištima i u neko drugo vreme, prognoza razvoja budue tražnje za saobraajnim uslugama ima poseban znaaj. Prema prognoziranom obimu i strukturi usluga razvojnom politikom treba obezbediti odgovarajue kapacitete. 257 275
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