From: on behalf of Panel Registry Subject: FW: TNG registration of ...

understand the implications of climate change and it also served to check the validity of
scientific
conclusions.
Table 1: List of Study Parameters and Tools
Assessment Parameters Tools
1. Historical trend analysis of climate
changes and variability
Key informants interviews, data
2. Future climate change and
variability
projection
Computer modeling
3. Climate Impact analysis Professional estimations, Literature review, BEC
modeling
4. Vulnerability Assessment Literature review, Key informant interviews
5. Adaptation strategies Key informant interviews, Literature review
Secondary information in the form of historical climate data was also used to develop a
climate baseline for the study. Literature surveys and professional opinions were used to
inform estimates regarding projected biophysical impacts, climate vulnerabilities and
adaptation strategies. And computer modeling was used to develop climate projections.
Except for the climate modeling, much of the analysis in the report was qualitative. This
was due to the short time frame and modest budget of the project as well as the rather
limited state of climate impact modeling at the regional and local level.
Climate Projections
Climatic data have been produced by the computer program ClimateBC 5, which offers high
resolution spatial climate data for current and future climate change scenarios. This is
particularly useful for remote regions like the XGCA. Recent climatic variables have been
averaged spatially (i.e. with a resolution of roughly 6 km 2) throughout the XGCA and
temporally for the periods 1961 – 1990 (which we consider as representative of present
climate). Future climate projections are based on the Canadian Global Circulation Model
version 2 (CGCM2) for two future emission scenarios as defined by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The A1F1 emission (or “worst case”) scenario describes a
future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in the mid‐
century and declines thereafter, and rapid introduction of new and more efficient
technologies with an emphasis on fossil fuel energy sources. The B2 emission (or “best
case”) scenario describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic,
social, and environmental sustainability. Both emission scenarios are projected for the
2020’s (i.e., 2020 – 2029) and 2050’s (i.e., 2050 – 2059). In addition, both emission
scenarios depict the same general trend; however, the intensity or scale of the trend is
different.
Wildlife & Wild Horse Impacts
5 See: http://www.genetics.forestry.ubc.ca/cfcg/climate‐models.html
5