From: on behalf of Panel Registry Subject: FW: TNG registration of ...

Past climate changes and their impacts on fish to date
Globally, trends provided by scientists show fish stocks in dramatic decline. According to the IPCC,
evidence for impacts of recent climate change being a serious factor in this decline is rapidly
accumulating. In their 2007 4 th Assessment, the Panel summarizes the state of salmonids on the
west coast. The report stated that "Cold­ and cool­water fisheries, especially salmonids, have been
declining as warmer/drier conditions reduce their habitat. The sea­run salmon stocks are in steep
decline throughout much of North America. Pacific salmon have been appearing in Arctic rivers.
Salmonid species have been affected by warming in U.S. streams." 61
Closer to home, climate change is believed to have been affecting the fishery resource in the XGCA
for some time. While the Fraser River remains one of the most productive Pacific salmon rivers in
the world, overall trends are not positive, and climate change is likely to make things worse. A
recent University of British Columbia (UBC) study analyzed the relationship between stream
temperature and salmon survival. Their findings show that temperature challenges aerobic activity
in salmon and that each stock of salmon may have different thresholds of survival. 62 According to
Tony Farrell, UBC, "This study shows that an increase over the past 50 years of 1.8 degrees Celsius in
the Fraser River's peak summer temperatures is too much too fast for some salmon stocks". He goes on
to
say "It also shows that climate change affects even the same species differently because individual
populations may have adapted to their respective environments. 63
The following three Fgures (13, 14 and 16) from their 2009 report highlight the declines in sockeye,
Coho and Chinook salmon for the Fraser River, into which the Taseko and Chilko Rivers flow. Aside
from the Upper Fraser summer Chinook run, all other species and runs are also in jeopardy, which
will
only be further compounded by climate change and its effects on fish and fish habitat located
within the XGCA.
The above development is very alarming to the Xeni Gwet’in community, given that especially
Sockeye salmon are the most important fish species for their consumption. The 2009 sockeye
escapement into many tributaries of the Fraser River including the Chilko was far below
expectations. The preliminary indications suggest that the sockeye fry from the Chilko River brood
year
left the Chilko system in record numbers and size and expectations ran high in 2009 as a result
of this, but the return rate was considered a collapse.
The situation remains of great concern nationally and a judicial inquiry has been scheduled by the
Canadian government to determine the cause of the sockeye collapse in the Fraser River. Early
indications suggest climate change may be to blame. Scientists are now suggesting that ocean
conditions
in 2007 played a large role in this issue with warmer water temperatures and a lack of
food
that the young sockeye are reliant on during their early months in the ocean.
61 (In the North America Chapter of the IPCC's WGII Technical Report: "Climate Change 2007: Impacts,
IPCC, 2007
Adaptation and Vulnerability" issued April.)
62 UBC (2008)
63 Tony Farrell, UBC Faculty of Science website
46