From: on behalf of Panel Registry Subject: FW: TNG registration of ...

Projected Climate Changes and Impacts
On December 9, 2009 the Pacific Fisheries Resource Conservation Council (PFRCC) co‐hosted with
Simon Fraser University a think tank of scientists concerned about the failing sockeye salmon
returns to the Fraser River. Their press release on that date stated “Climate change poses a major
threat to the future of Fraser River salmon, not only through direct effects of temperature on
the fish, but also through impacts on food webs and habitats [emphasis added]. Management
agencies must take this information into account in order to meet the objectives of Canada’s Wild
Salmon
Policy, which include maintaining biodiversity as well as monitoring and protecting habitat.
These are clearly challenging times for Fraser River sockeye salmon.” (PFRCC).
Few scientists from Fisheries and Oceans Canada will discuss the issue due to the scheduled judicial
inquiry however other respected scientists are stepping forward with comments and opinions.
Simon Fraser University’s Dr. John Reynolds who holds the Tom Buell chair in salmon conservation
recently
stated “This is now the way that things may well be for the future, especially under the
predictions we have for climate change" (CBC).
The fisheries development is very alarming to the Xeni Gwet’in community, given that especially
Sockeye salmon are the most important fish species for their consumption. However, climate
change will affect all fish species that the Xeni Gwet’in relies on as a food source differently. In 2009
Nelitz and Porter from ESSA Technologies Ltd. prepared a report on the effects of climate change on
Chinook habitat in the Cariboo‐Chilcotin. 64 According to this report, the findings suggest that
regional climate change impacts on Chinook salmon may be mixed. Interestingly, in some locations
there may be benefits of habitat changes, while in other locations there may be constraints on
production. For instance, stream habitats with temperatures optimal for Chinook rearing are
predicted to decrease in northern areas on the study area and increase in southern areas.
Late summer / early flows necessary to maintain rearing juveniles and allow return of spawning
spring and summer Chinook are also predicted to decrease more markedly in the north than in the
south. In some of the more northern streams summer / fall flows are predicted to decline to
such an extent that minimum flows to support successful spawning and rearing may not be
reached
consistently in the future. The report stressed that further exploration of these data and
field validation of the modeled interpretations would be fruitful.
Nelitz and Porter also prepared a report in 2009 on the effects that climate change may have on
Coho salmon habitat. This report stated “<strong>From</strong> a thermal perspective, there appears to be a current
abundance of suitable coolwater and coolwarm transition habitats within the downstream reaches of
the Chilcotin, Quesnel, and West Road watersheds. Under a “best” case scenario of climate change,
changes are predicted to be most significant in the Horsefly and Chilcotin drainages, with
temperatures shifting towards those preferred by warmwater fish communities. Under a
“worst” case scenario thermal shifts are even more significant and extensive in the Chilcotin and
Quesnel. On average, the linear extent of coolwater habitats is predicted to decline in the Chilcotin by
the 2080s, while cool­warm transition habitats are expected to increase. The pattern is the opposite in
the Quesnel where coolwater habitats are expected to increase while cool­warm transition habitats
are expected to decrease. These changes are accompanied by potentially large increase in the extent of
warmwater habitats which could
adversely affect Coho.” 65 The authors notes in their report that
64 Nellitz and Porter (2009a).
65 Nellitz and Porter (2009b).
48