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Figure 8: The Bridge glacier Projected changes in glacier area and mean August streamflow for the Bridge glacier in southern BC (20002150). Source: Modified from Stahl et al., in review – as seen in PCIC 2009 Streamflow At present, a comprehensive study of projected BC streamflow is not available, in spite of its importance for water resources. However, several independent studies have been made for major basins and individual watersheds, including two for the Fraser River (Table 7). These studies confirm concerns that the influence of future regional projections of warmer temperatures, uncertain precipitation and a reduction in snowpack and glaciers will adversely affect both the timing and the volume of projected stream flow. 33 33 Whitfield et al.(2002b).; Merritt, W.S. et al., (2006); and Loukas, A., et al. (2004) 27
Table 7: Research studies ongoing in BC on streamflow. Region Source Study Site Hydrologic Model Fraser Morrison River et al. 200234 Fraser River Basin (217,000 km2) UBC Watershed Model Fraser River Sushama et al. 2006 35 Fraser River basin above Port Mann (232,000 km 2) Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) Source: Adapted from Merritt et al. (2006) GCM Scenario CGCMA Hadley Climate Model (HadCM2) CGCM2‐ A2 standard, CGCM2 – A2 updated, and CGCM2‐ IS92 standard Downscaling Technique Statistical climate inversion CRCM (dynamical downscaling) Hydrology Scenarios Present climate: (1961‐ 1990) Future climate: 2020 (2010‐ 2039); 2050s (2040‐ 2069); 2080s (2070‐ 2099) Present climate: ( 1961‐ 1990) Future climate: (2041‐ 2070) Changes to streamflow Modest average flow increase in the 2080s with a decrease in the average peak flow. General shift to earlier peak in the hydrograph (approx. 24 days) A significant decrease in SWE as less precipitation falls as snow. Runoff is higher during late‐fall and early‐winter. Spring peaks are attenuated and occur earlier. Increased variability in the number of days with low‐flows. Increased low flows in fall. The recent PCIC hydrology report from 2009 outlines a host of challenges and complexities related to modeling different runoff regimes, one being the multiple sources of streamflow that have to be accounted for (i.e. glacier‐melt and groundwater). Yet, the studies highlight that projected changes to annual and seasonal streamflow volumes and timing are similar across models and approaches. 36 The following summary is provided by the PCIC report ( p.106‐108): • “All models and approaches that deal with nival (i.e. snowfed) systems predict an earlier onset of the spring freshet or peak flows compared to the base case. 34 Morrison, J., Quick, M.C. and Foreman, M.G.G., (2002). 35 Sushama, L., Laprise, R., Caya, D., Frigon, A. and Slivitzky, M.,( 2006). 36 Merritt, W.S. et al., (2006). 28
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SESSION-SPECIFIC COMMENTS & REQUEST
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Attachment A Written Submission for
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Attachment B Written Submission for
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Education Attachment D Dr. Gordon H
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3 Prosperity EA Review. Taseko Mine
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Prosperity Mine Aquatic Impact Asse
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4 • Remain stable and capable of
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something that is proposed and ‘p
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adjacent meadow or lowland areas ar
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Concluding Comments The proposed co
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The following briefing on mine-rela
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Impact of Shift/Rotation Schedule o
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Impact of Shift/Rotation Schedule o
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Boom/Bust Cycle of Mining Industry
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Social Change in Cohesion of Commun
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Social Change in Cohesion of Commun
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Impacts on Culture • Consequences
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Impacts on Community Resources •
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Impacts on Community Resources Incr
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On the Positive Side on Things…
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LITERATURE CITED 1 Heiler, K., Pick
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23 Story, K. and L.C. Hamilton. 200
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AN INDEPENDENT REVIEW OF THE TERRES
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I. GENERAL APPROACH & OVERVIEW BY M
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A. REVIEW OF PROPOSED TASEKO LAKE/W
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occasionally used for wild horse do
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9 with other direct and indirect mo
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11 grizzly bear mortality that I pr
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13 mortality as a result. I predict
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LITERATURE CITED: 15 Austin, M.A.,
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17 Wakkinen, W.L. and B. Allen-John
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� Forestry-wildlife research �
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� Spirit Bear (Cross-Country Cana
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McCrory, W. 2006. Bear hazard asses
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McCrory, W. 1997a. Preliminary eval
Page 130: 2010 Xeni Gwet’in Community‐bas
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Page 139 and 140: Adaptation to climate change is typ
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Page 157 and 158: Source: Theo Mlynowski, UNBC Precip
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Page 163: Glaciers 28 Like snowmelt, glaciers
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Page 179 and 180: • Whitebark Pine: Of the two tree
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Adaptation Objective Develop Nature
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Adaptation Strategies into Local Go
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Ecolibrio (2009). Xeni Gwet’in Co
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Nelitz³, M. and M. Porter. 2009c.
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ANNEXES - BACKGROUND PAPERS (NOTE -
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Stratus Consulting Memorandum (4/16
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