annual financial statement 2011 - conwert Immobilien Invest SE

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CONWERT IMMOBILIEN INVEST SE ANNUAL FINANCIAL STATEMENT 2011 36 OFFICE & COMMERCIAL PROPERTIES VIENNA Experts think that the situation will be more difficult in the office market in Vienna in 2012, although new space will reach a new record low of 170.000 sqm in 2012. EHL forecasts an overall take-up of 200,000 sqm, which would correspond to a decline by 10.000 sqm in comparison with the previous year. Relocations of foreign companies will be the exception rather than the rule, and the space will be rented primarily by local companies that move office. Difficult times are looming for market participants for older office projects with low spatial efficiency and high running costs. The strongest motives for relocations will be increased efficiency and spatial optimization. Therefore, property experts expect vacancy rates to increase to roughly 6.5% on average. In contrast, retail will not yet be affected by the crisis in the year 2012. In the so-called “golden U”, the area comprising the inner city streets Kärntnerstraße, Graben and Kohlmarkt, the rent per sqm rose by 20 € within only a year in 2011 and currently amounts to 340 €, with an increasing tendency. (EHL Report, Office Market Report Vienna, spring 2012 & Retail Market Report, Vienna 2012) GERMAN PROPERTY MARKET In a weakening economic environment and in view of an expectable lack of alternative investments with ongoing historically low capital market interest rates, the property experts of CBRE expect the demand for secure property investments to remain dynamic in the year 2012. Especially the yield differential between core property investments and long-term debt instruments of the federal government, which reached 3.13 percentage points for top-class office properties, will lead to persisting strong demand for German property investments. The reduction of risk items in the balance sheets of banks as well as the required higher capital base will also lead to an increase in ailing, management-intensive properties becoming available in the market in the second half of the year. Against this backdrop, many property experts expect a comparable transaction volume to remain in 2012 as in the previous 12 months of 2011. As the medium-term growth perspectives for the German economy are considered positive and Germany increasingly asserts itself as a secure investment location, the share of foreign investors should continue to increase as well. (CBRE Germany Investment Quarterly Q4) GERMAN RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET According to property experts, tenants and property buyers should be prepared for rising costs in 2012, with a significant increase forecast for new rentals in strained residential markets. Here, new tenancy agreements may exceed the customary local rents by between 10% and 30%. Current studies show that buyers of properties will also have to pay more in 2012. According to calculations of the Association of German Pfandbrief Banks (vdp), owner-occupied homes in Germany were as expensive as never before since this value was first calculated in the year 2003. In particular, freehold condominiums were substantially more expensive for buyers than in 2011. Within a year, prices rose by 5.2%. Against this background, permits for property projects also rose by 21%. The causes were low interest rates, declining unemployment and the growing popularity of tangible assets during the crisis. While the decline in public sector building projects caused some concern for the construction industry, housing construction will provide a stimulus for the construction activities in the years to come, according to the ifo Institute. The institute estimates that more than 200,000 new apartments will be built in Germany in 2013, nearly 50% more than in 2009. Thanks to brisk demand for apartments, the ifo experts expect an average annual growth of just under 0.5% to 254 billion € until 2020. In contrast to this trend, public sector construction projects will drop from 38.5 billion € to less than 35.0 billion € by 2020. (Study of Dr. Zitelmann)
INTRO | | CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS | FINANCIAL STATEMENTS MANAGEMENT REPORT Outlook and post-balance sheet date report BERLIN RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET Experts forecast stable demand for apartment buildings in the Berlin residential property market in the year 2012. Prices will presumably remain at the current level. For owners who want to take advantage of a tax-free sale after ten years – an opportunity that currently still exists – there are good chances of attractive selling prices. German players will continue to dominate the market, although demand from countries like Austria, Italy, Sweden, Norway, Israel, etc. will increase further. Private and institutional investors with a strong equity basis will most likely use the market for purchases. The average debt ratio will range between 60 and 70% of the purchase price as the financing behaviour of banks is unlikely to change fundamentally. Experts assume that Berlin will again see the strongest demand in the property market, ahead of Hamburg and Munich by a clear margin. Many investors are expected to have the German capital on their radar in 2012, after Berlin was not in the investment focus for many institutional investors in the previous years. Increasing rents and very good forecasts for the residential market have ensured that in addition to private investors, who have considered Berlin an investment stronghold for a long time, institutional investors are active as buyers again. For many affluent private investors the reasons for a stable investment in uncertain times are evident. Interest rates will continue to be favourable in the year 2012, according to numerous experts. Rental income currently grows above the inflation rate and the vacancy rate is declining continuously. Scarce supply should continue to lead to further moderate price increases, with the average prices in Berlin having remained remarkably stable so far. Although purchase prices rose, there was no price explosion. According to experts, Berlin still represents a market full of opportunities for investors in 2012, which, unlike other large cities in Germany, has sufficient fungibility. Many property experts are convinced that, searching systematically, there are still sufficient investments to be made in the German capital, while the apartment building market in other cities appears to be less appealing because of shortages in supply. (Study of Dr. Zitelmann) 37
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