moleskine-ipo-report-04-03-2013-mediobanca

Moleskine
MOLESKINE: B2B revenues (2012-15E)
Within the B2B channel (2012/15 CAGR seen at 29.3%), we consider the increase in the
customer base as the growth driver, with a growth strategy tailored to individual markets.
Based on our estimates, the number of B2B customers might approach 2,000 by 2015, from the
current 1,183, and the turnover generated by this channel could exceed €27m by YE2015, of
which roughly half will be generated in EMEA, some 30% in America and 20% in APAC.
(€m) 2012 % 2013E % 2014E % 2015E % 12/15 CAGR
B2B REVENUES 12.7 16% 15.9 17% 20.4 17% 27.5 17% 29%
YoY Chge% 19%
nr of customers 1,183
net additions 221
25%
1,363
180
AMERICA B2B 3.6 28% 4.7 29% 6.3 31% 8.5 31% 33%
YoY Chge% 56%
30%
APAC B2B 1.6 13% 2.4 15% 3.6 18% 5.7 21% 51%
YoY Chge% 98%
45%
EMEA B2B 7.5 59% 8.8 56% 10.6 52% 13.3 48% 21%
THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN THE UNITED STATES, CANADA OR JAPAN.
29%
1,623
260
34%
35%
1,973
YoY Chge% -1% 18% 20% 26%
Source: Mediobanca Securities, company data
50%
As far as the retail channel is concerned, we assume a total of 83 store openings over the period
2012-15, with a total of 92 stores at YE2015, split as follows:
MOLESKINE: Store openings (2012-15E)
a) In EMEA, through the travel retail formats in major European airports and railways
stations, replicating the great success of stores opened in 2012: we project eight store
openings in 2013, and 14 in both 2014 and 2015, giving a total of 36 store openings; for the
sake of simplicity, we assume each new POS has an average selling space of 30-35 sqm and
annual sales of €16-20k/sqm;
b) In APAC, the format to be used is the shopping mall stores: we assume five store openings
in 2013, 15 in both 2014 and 2015, giving a total of 39 store openings by 2015. For new
stores, we assume a selling space of 18sqm and annual sales/sqm of €10k;
c) In the US, Moleskine will start testing free standing locations with two openings this year,
and if successful, will roll out this format going forward (we assume five net openings in
both 2014 and 2015). In our estimates, we assume each store will have an average selling
space of 40sqm and annual sales of €18k/sqm.
NR 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E Delta 12/15E
EMEA DOS 5 13 27 41 +36
Net openings
350
35%
59%
+8 +14 +14
APAC DOS 4 9 24 39 +35
Net openings
+5 +15 +15
AMERICAS DOS 0 2 7 12 +12
Net openings
+2 +5 +5
TOTAL DOS 9 24 58 92 +83
Net openings +15 +34 +34
Source: Mediobanca Securities, company data
IPO
19%
04 March 2013 ◆ 53