moleskine-ipo-report-04-03-2013-mediobanca

Moleskine
Looking at developments in the group’s cost structure, our projections forecast that:
variable costs (58% of total costs based on our estimates) will increase annually by 22% on
average, and fall as a percentage of sales from 34.6% to 30.8%, thanks to a lower than
proportional rise in purchasing costs;
fixed costs (42% of total costs) will grow by an annual average of 30%, thus increasing as a
proportion of sales from the current 25.2% to an expected 27.4% by YE2015.
Note, however, that our analysis is rather simplistic, given that we assume all retail rents as fixed,
whereas in some markets, a portion of the rents for DOS are set as a percentage of sales.
MOLESKINE: costs structure (2012-15E)
(€m) 2012E % 2013E % 2014E % 2015E % 12/15 CAGR
TOTAL COSTS 46.8 100% 56.4 100% 72.2 100% 92.1 100% 110.3
VARIABLE 27.0 58% 32.2 57% 39.9 55% 48.7 53% 58.5
as % of group revenues 34.6%
34.1%
FIXED 19.7 42% 24.2 43% 32.3 45% 43.4 47% 51.8
as % of group revenues 25.2%
Source: Mediobanca Securities
25.6%
MOLESKINE: Revenues, EBITDA & EBIT (2012-15E)
(€m) 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 12/15 CAGR
REVENUES 78.1 94.5 121.8 158.0 26.5%
YoY chge % 16% 21% 29% 30%
GROSS PROFIT 58.4 72.0 94.7 125.2 29.0%
YoY chge % 22% 23% 31% 32%
Margin% 74.7% 76.2% 77.7% 79.2%
EBITDA 31.4 38.0 49.6 66.0 28.1%
YoY chge % 10% 21% 30% 33%
Margin% 40.2% 40.3% 40.7% 41.7% 1.6%
EBIT 30.4 35.5 45.6 60.5 25.7%
YoY chge % 10% 17% 28% 33%
Margin% 39.0% 37.6% 37.4% 38.3%
Source: Mediobanca Securities, company data
Earnings trend
32.8%
26.5%
At the bottom line, we expect group net profit to grow by approximately 30% annually over the next
three years, reaching €40m at YE2015. The rise in net income is likely to be driven by:
30.8%
27.4%
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IPO
30.8%
27.3%
improved EBITDA both in absolute terms and as a percentage of sales (around €35m more in
2015 compared to the annual figures for FY 2012);
an expected decline in net financial charges, as FCF generation reduces net debt;
a tax rate assumed to be stable at 33%.
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