moleskine-ipo-report-04-03-2013-mediobanca

Moleskine
Valuation criteria
We have identified two criteria to provide a fair valuation of Moleskine:
a sector comparison, in which we identify a panel of comparable companies that target a
similar reference market or have business similarities with Moleskine, as detailed below;
a discounted cash flow model, which we would use only to cross-check the sector multiples
valuation, but do not consider a fully reliable criterion. We therefore suggest due caution when
looking at it, given Moleskine’s growth profile and therefore the difficulty in assessing when its
cash flows will start to stabilize.
Sector comparison
Moleskine’s unique market positioning, with the brand expressing a set of intangible values combining
identity and culture, its product profile (premium and high-end products) and business model make it
very hard to identify a clear panel of comparable companies with the same features and future
prospects.
For this reason, we have identified two categories of possible comparable companies:
a) Premium & branded goods companies with an iconic core product and brand
extension opportunities
This group includes premium and branded goods companies, whose past and current appeal to
consumers is strictly linked to the success of one or few iconic products, which from being the
brand’s historical flagship, have now become a benchmark within their market segment.
The cultural significance behind owning this product, the sense of being part of a community
sharing common values, together with the product’s intrinsic value, justifies its premium
positioning. This helps these groups to keep the business risk under better control and make
the overall business resilient in a sector where tastes and fashion trends usually generate some
volatility.
Moreover, for brands whose awareness among consumers is very high for the core product,
there are opportunities to extend the brand to other product categories, which is likely to
become an additional source of top-line growth when the flagship product reaches a maturity
phase in its growth path.
For these reasons, we include in our panel of companies comparable to Moleskine Tod’s,
Ferragamo, Burberry, Tumi, Brunello Cucinelli and Prada.
MOLESKINE: comparable branded goods companies
BRAND core product brand extension
BRUNELLO CUCINELLI CASHMERE KNITWEAR ACCESSORIES
BURBERRY TRENCH COAT APPAREL, LEATHER GOODS, ACCESSORIES
PRADA HANDBAGS APPAREL, LEATHER GOODS, ACCESSORIES
FERRAGAMO WOMENS’ SHOES APPAREL, LEATHER GOODS, ACCESSORIES
TOD'S MEN’ SHOES LEATHER GOODS, ACCESSORIES
TUMI LUGGUAGES ACCESSORIES
MOLESKINE NOTEBOOKS WRITING, TRAVEL AND READING ITEMS
Source: Mediobanca Securities
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IPO
04 March 2013 ◆ 8