moleskine-ipo-report-04-03-2013-mediobanca

Moleskine
MOLESKINE: Retail channel revenues (2012-15E)
(€m) 2012 % 2013E % 2014E % 2015E %
RETAIL 0.9 1% 5.2 6% 15.0 12% 25.1 16%
YoY Chge% nm
482%
AMERICA DOS 0.0 0% 0.6 11% 2.7 18% 6.1 24%
YoY Chge%
nm
APAC DOS 0.1 8% 0.8 15% 1.9 13% 3.2 13%
YoY Chge%
nm
EMEA DOS 0.8 90% 3.9 74% 10.4 69% 15.7 63%
YoY Chge%
SALES PER DOS (k€) 100
TOTAL SQM 244
SALES X SQM (K€/SQM) 3.6
Source: Mediobanca Securities, company data
384%
218
918
5.7
E-commerce is expected to become an additional source of top-line growth and is seen
contributing revenues of approx €18m in FY2015, from €3.3m in 2012. Our estimates are based
on the following assumptions:
MOLESKINE: E-commerce revenues (2012-15E)
187%
375%
156%
165%
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259
1,878
8.0
67%
124%
66%
52%
273
2,838
a) Traffic is expected to grow annually by 60%, meaning that the number of visits should
exceed 14 million in FY2015;
b) A conversion rate seen in the area of 2.4%-2.6%;
c) The AOV seen growing from €39 to €48 in three years’ time.
(€m) 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 12/15 CAGR
E-COMMERCE 3.3 5.4 10.1 17.9 76%
YoY Chge% 196% 63% 88% 77%
NR OF VISITS (m) 3.5 5.6 8.96 14.336 60%
YoY Chge% 192% 60% 60% 60%
conversion rate 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.6%
NR ORDERS 85,500 134,400 224,000 372,736 64%
YoY Chge% 181% 59% 67% 66%
AOV (€) 39 40 45 48 7%
Source: Mediobanca Securities, company data
MOLESKINE: Revenues by channel (2012-15E)
(€m) 2012 % 2013 % 2014 % 2015 % 12/15 CAGR
B2C 61.2 78% 68.0 72% 76.3 63% 87.6 55% 13%
YoY Chge% 10%
11%
B2B 12.7 16% 15.9 17% 20.4 17% 27.5 17% 29%
YoY Chge% 19%
25%
E-COMMERCE 3.3 4% 5.4 6% 10.1 8% 17.9 11% 76%
YoY Chge% 196%
63%
RETAIL 1.0 1% 5.2 6% 15.0 12% 25.1 16% 197%
YoY Chge% nm
445%
TOTAL REVENUES 78.1 100% 94.5 100% 121.8 100% 158.0 100% 26%
YoY Chge% 16%
Source: Mediobanca Securities, company data
21%
12%
29%
88%
187%
29%
15%
35%
77%
67%
30%
8.8
IPO
04 March 2013 ◆ 54