moleskine-ipo-report-04-03-2013-mediobanca

Moleskine
Profitability trend
Over the next three years, we project a jump in EBITDA from €31.4m in 2012 to €66m in 2015, which
means a 3Y CAGR of approx. 28% and a 150bps increase in the EBITDA margin (our estimates project
an increase from 40.2% in 2011 to 41.7% by YE2015). Our estimates assume:
MOLESKINE: Cost structure (2012-15E)
a decrease in purchasing costs, from 25% of 2012 sales to 21% in 2015, thanks to a
better sales mix in terms of channel (with direct retail distribution and E-commerce offering a
higher gross margin), a gradual shift of production from China to Vietnam, and a 1.5% price
increase starting from January 2013 in a set of paper products in EMEA and the Americas;
a more than proportional increase in operating expenses (3Y CAGR of approx 30%),
expected to grow from 35% of net sales to around 37%, attributable to:
a) a more than proportional increase in commercial costs, growing from 9.3% to 10% of
sales, mostly due to expenses for paid traffic to develop the e-commerce business (we
assume that 1/3 of total traffic is paid traffic);
b) an increase in G&A (3Y CAGR of 31.3%), due to rents related to the enlargement of the
head office in Milan in 2012 and the planned expansion of the direct retail channel, and
management fees related to the management of some new stores by third parties in the
travel retail channel.
(€m) 2012 % 2013E % 2014E % 2015E % 12/15 CAGR
PURCHASING COSTS 19.8 42% 22.5 40% 27.2 38% 32.9 36% 18.5%
YoY chge % 1%
as % of group revenues 25%
14%
24%
OPERATING EXPENSES 27.2 58% 34.0 60% 45.1 62% 59.2 64% 29.6%
YoY chge % 38%
as % of group revenues 35%
25%
36%
TOTAL COSTS 47.0 100% 56.4 100% 72.2 100% 92.1 100% 25.2%
YoY chge % 20%
as % of group revenues 60%
Source: Mediobanca Securities, company data
MOLESKINE: Operating expenses (2012-15E)
20%
60%
(€m) 2012 % 2013E % 2014E % 2015E % 12/15 CAGR
LABOUR COSTS 9.8 36% 10.5 31% 15.1 34% 21.5 36% 30.0%
YoY chge % 31%
as % of group revenues 13%
7%
11%
COMMERCIAL COSTS 7.3 27% 9.7 29% 12.8 28% 15.8 27% 29.6%
YoY chge % 70%
as % of group revenues 9.3%
34%
10.3%
G&A EXPENSES 9.2 34% 12.7 37% 16.2 36% 20.9 35% 31.3%
YoY chge % 34%
as % of group revenues 12%
OTHERS 0.9
YoY chge % -11%
as % of group revenues 1%
38%
13%
1.0
9%
1%
TOTAL OPEX 27.2 100% 34.0 100% 45.1 100% 59.2 100% 29.6%
YoY chge % 38%
as % of group revenues 35%
Source: Mediobanca Securities, company data
25%
36%
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21%
22%
33%
37%
28%
59%
44%
12%
31%
10.5%
27%
13%
1.0
0%
1%
33%
37%
21%
21%
31%
37%
27%
58%
42%
14%
24%
10.0%
29%
13%
1.0
0%
1%
31%
37%
IPO
04 March 2013 ◆ 57