Annual Report 2010 - Verein der Kohlenimporteure eV

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12 Development to 2035 The 2010 edition of the IEA Word Energy Outlook (WEO) includes projections of consumption, production, trade and investment to 2035. The WEO includes, for the first time, three scenarios. These are: 1. The Current Policies Scenario (previously called Reference Scenario), in which no crucial changes to frame work conditions of energy and climate policies are assumed (i.e. business as usual). 2. The New Policies Scenario (main scenario) takes into account current government commitments to protect the climate and improve security of power supply. 3. The 450 ppm Scenario, with the assumption that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is limited to 450 parts per million of CO 2 equivalent. This should make it possible to achieve the objective of limiting the global rise in temperature to a maximum 2°C, compared with pre-industrial level. In its World Energy Outlook, the IEA is for the first time taking into account energy policy commitments and plans to limit greenhouse gas emissions and to improve security of energy supply to forecast supply and demand. The most important results of the New Policies Scenario (NPS) are discussed here: In its WEO 2010, the IEA concludes, firstly, that the outlook for global energy demand to 2035 will be determined mainly by energy policy measures and their influence on technology, energy prices and the behaviour of end-users. In the NPS, global primary energy consumption rises by 36% to 24.0 billion tonnes of coal equivalent (tce) between 2008 and 2035, corresponding to an average growth of 1.2% per annum. Compared with this, average annual growth projected rise of energy demand is clearly lower than in the reference scenario, in which consumption rises annually by 1.4% until 2035. Through to 2035, 93% of the rise in primary energy consumption will be in non-OECD countries. The share of OECD countries in world primary energy consumption will drop from 44% in 2008 to 33% in 2035. Gtoe 5 4 3 2 1 World Primary Energy Consumption Oil Coal Natural Gas Biomass Nuclear Energy Hydropower Projection Other Renewables 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035 Figure: Development of the global PEC by energy source and a possible scenario of the future development (New Policy Scenaio IEA 2010) Figure 3 Source: BGR Hannover: Kurzstudie 2010 Reserven, Ressourcen und Verfügbarkeit von Energierohstoffen According to IEA data, demand for coal rises very differently in the various scenarios between 2008 and 2035. all three scenarios to 2035. Their respective shares of fuels must, even in the NPS-scenario, cover more than half of the increase in demand.
Coal remains the No. 1 source of energy for electricity generation in the world Word Coal Demand by Region to 2035 According to the IEA “New Policies Scenario” 1980 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2008-2035 1) Mtce Mtce Mtce Mtce Mtce Mtce Mtce % OECD 1,379 1,612 1,562 1,452 1,337 1,208 1,021 - 1.7 North America 571 828 827 789 740 681 596 - 1.2 America 537 780 777 747 705 649 576 - 1.1 Europe 663 447 392 346 312 278 226 - 2.5 145 337 342 318 285 249 199 - 1.9 Japan 85 162 161 146 125 106 82 - 2.5 Non-OECD 1,181 3,124 3,999 4,213 4,357 4,484 4,600 1.4 E. Europe/Eurasia 517 325 324 305 304 296 290 - 0.4 Caspian Region n. a. 47 57 59 60 57 56 0.7 Russia n. a. 167 170 163 163 159 158 - 0.2 Asia 572 2,601 3,458 3,687 3,830 3,958 4,081 1.7 China 446 2,019 2,685 2,788 2,831 2,842 2,822 1.2 India 75 373 467 551 609 682 781 2.8 Indonesia 0 53 95 111 131 151 168 4.4 Middle East 2 14 17 16 18 23 29 2.9 Africa 74 149 151 159 161 164 160 0.3 Latin America 16 35 49 46 43 43 40 0.6 Brazil 8 20 28 24 21 21 20 0.2 World 2,560 4,736 5,561 5,665 5,694 5,692 5,621 0.6 European Union n. a. 434 374 314 277 240 193 -3.0 1) HT-W3 Source: WEO 2010, IEA In the NPS, coal demand rises by approximately 20% until 2020 and then drops slowly after 2025. Non- OECD countries mainly account for this increase, with China, India and Indonesia alone representing nearly 90% of the entire rise. China remains the world’s largest coal consumer and India progresses to second place in 2030. Over the period to 2035, China will complete the construction of approximately 600 GW of new plants, equivalent to today’s entire coal-fired power generation capacity in the USA, the European Union and Japan together, or four times the installed capacity in Germany at the beginning of 2010. 13
Page 1 and 2: ANNUAL REPORT 2011 Fakts and Trends
Page 3 and 4: Preamble - Environmentally-friendly
Page 5 and 6: Requirements of an Energy Policy to
Page 7 and 8: Global Economic Overview 21 st Worl
Page 9 and 10: caused by the resulting oil spill,
Page 11: Urbanization and Industrialization
Page 15 and 16: In 2010, hard coal output worldwide
Page 17 and 18: The current estimates of hard coal
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Page 33 and 34: EU Energy Mix 2010 within Power Gen
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therefore has the potential to incr
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COUNTRY REPORTS 2010-2011 AUSTRALIA
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is already being planned and operat
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Mt, allowing vessels of 60,000-180,
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Initial estimates indicate that ope
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2008 Mt 2) 2009 Mt 2) 2010 Mt 2) Ap
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Exports Colombia managed to increas
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2008 Mt 2009 Mt 2010 1) Mt Power Ge
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There has been a major shift in the
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According to information from Vinac
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Infrastructure China’s infrastruc
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Proposed projects include the Ukhaa
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VENEZUELA Production Internal polit
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World-Energy Consumption by Source
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Mill. t (t=t) 2008 2009 2010 Produc
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2008 2009 2010 Coking Coal Steam Co
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Exporting Countries Volatile Ash Mo
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Coke strength Fluidity Contraction
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Hard Coal Export of Indonesia 1,000
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Hard Coal Export of the United Stat
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Hard Coal Export of South Africa 1,
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Hard Coal Export of China 1,000 t I
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Hard Coal Imports of EU-Countries:
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Primary Energy Consumption in Germa
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Hard Coal Sales in Germany 1,000 t
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Steam Coal Coking Coal 2009 2010 An
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Crude Oil Prices European / Interna
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Quantities and Prices 1957 - 2010 Q
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AGEB (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebi
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Member Company Area Code Phone Fax
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Member Company Area Code Phone Fax
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Disclaimer Whilst care has been tak
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