Annual Report 2010 - Verein der Kohlenimporteure eV

European electricity market, overcoming all existing
transit and network obstacles in Europe and
carrying out all necessary infrastructure investments.
increasingly on imported electricity (of up to 30%
in 2050), without this ever being co-ordinated with
Germany’s neighbours.
Energy Concept) assume that the lifetime extensions
of German nuclear power plants can be completely
implemented despite political opposition, complaints
and doubts, and that e.g. the development of
Germany’s energy networks and advised renovation
in the building sector will take place without any
slowdown.
solution of all acceptance problems related to
the required investment projects and that a stable
international context will exist, without e.g. raw
material bottlenecks or shortages, or any surge in
energy prices, and also without any price declines
in fossil energy sources or similar reactions on the
international energy markets.
fundamental assumptions, such as the successful
realisation of technologies that do not yet exist today
or that will not be commercially available for a long
time: among them are new technologies to store power
via CCS (assumed to be “commercially available”
from 2025), to e-mobility and the standard-setting
zero-emission house.
depends, in addition to the analysis, on the given
reduction in energy consumption actually being
achieved. This, again, can only occur if the increase in
energy productivity not reached so far becomes a reality,
which presupposes at least a kind of “energy efficiency
1% per annum average economic growth until 2050
would be detrimental to Germany’s development as a
location for industry and will fortunately be markedly
exceeded in 2010 and probably also in 2011.
With these assumptions, all scenarios on average show
9.5% respectively, compared with a reference scenario
without climate policy objectives. However, the
potential for error in these 40-year forecasts to 2050 is
clearly much greater than in forecasts for a single year.
No Long-Term Positive Prospects for Coal?
in the long-term. According to DEBRIV, the German
Brown Coal Association, the draft Energy Concept
should be understood as “a determined strategy against
coal”. The energy scenarios, being in agreement with
political assumptions, assume 100% use of imported
hard coal as from 2020. Indigenous lignite use declines
after 2020; its contribution to electricity generation drops
drastically and is estimated at less than 1% in 2050.
According to the scenarios, there is still, as mentioned
above, a niche market for hard coal of round about 15
imported coking coal and coke.
No Investment Security for New Coal-Fired Power
Plants with Combined Heat and Power
According to the Energy Concept, coal-fired power
plants in the future will no longer be used for base- or
mid-load power generation, but instead like gas-fired
power plants especially will be available as “swing
and reserve capacity” for the fluctuating output from
renewables. Nevertheless, sufficient investments in new,
more flexible coal-fired power plants are considered
“necessary” to ensure security of supply. This means
also that, “the cost and availability of indigenous
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