Annual Report 2010 - Verein der Kohlenimporteure eV

62 Steam Coal Market Enjoys Positive Outlook
in 2011
Demand
Demand for electricity on the Asian market continues to
grow rapidly, with high growth rates in many countries.
Even so, large parts of the population in Asia, Africa
and South America still have no access to electricity,
so we can count on dynamic growth in the long term.
the first time more people in the world live in towns
than in the country. According to UN forecasts, urban
In Europe, imported coal is replacing the decline in
indigenous production. On the other hand, it must
increasingly compete with natural gas that has become
less cheaper. Since indigenous production in Germany,
Poland and Spain will continue to decline, import
volumes will probably be maintained in the long
term, but perhaps not increase substantially given the
additional burden of the cost of CO 2 certificates and the
further development of renewable energies, especially
if the EU Emissions Trading Scheme remains a globally
isolated solution.
According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA)
“New Policies Scenario”, world demand for electricity
will increase on average by more than 2% each year
30,300 TWh in 2035.
According to IEA estimates, more than 80% of the
increase in global electricity demand comes from
developing and emerging countries, while in OECD
countries, the increase is slower because of mandated
efficiency improvement. ExxonMobil in its “Outlook
for Energy: A View to 2030” comes to similar results:
demand for electricity will increase from the present
20,000 TWh by 80% globally by 2030. While for
OECD countries, only a 25% increase is forecast
compared with 2010, the increase in electricity demand
in non-OECD countries is 150%, of which China alone
accounts for 35%.
The share of global power generation from coal will
probably decrease by 2035 according to IEA data,
possibly by 25%. The reason for this is the volume of
relatively inexpensive, unconventional gas available on
the market that could partially displace coal and also
the stronger emergence of renewable energy sources.
Supply
Pacific suppliers – above all Indonesia – continue
to increase their supply. The programme for the
expansion of ports and railways in Australia reaped
its first rewards in 2011. However, the heavy rainfalls
and subsequent flooding that lasted for weeks nearly
brought production in Queensland to a halt and badly
damaged some infrastructure. China is continuing to
reduce its exports because of high domestic demand,
but nevertheless remains an exporter to a certain extent.
It is difficult to evaluate Vietnam’s potential. Exports
to date have been handled flexibly. The Vietnamese
government was concerned about high exports and
so cut them back. It will however ease its restraint on
exports if domestic demand becomes weaker. Russia is
increasing its Pacific exports and expanding shipping
In the Atlantic region, Colombia and Russia in
particular have the potential to develop their exports.
South Africa is currently stagnating. Poland’s
contribution to seaborne exports is stabilising at a
low level. Indonesia might lose market shares on the
Atlantic market in favour of Asian customers. Smaller
steam coal producers – Venezuela and Spitzbergen in
Norway – complete the available sources of traded coal.
High market prices are now improving the competitive
position of the USA as a “swing supplier”. The USA