- Page 1: Climate change refugia for terrestr
- Page 5 and 6: Table of contents ABSTRACT ........
- Page 7 and 8: 5.5 Results and outputs ...........
- Page 9 and 10: List of figures Figure 1: (Left) Th
- Page 11 and 12: Figure 55: Areas of endemism in the
- Page 13 and 14: ABSTRACT We are currently facing th
- Page 15 and 16: annual variation. Thus precipitatio
- Page 17 and 18: 1. OBJECTIVES OF THE RESEARCH The b
- Page 19 and 20: 2. PROPERTIES OF REFUGIA FOR BIODIV
- Page 21 and 22: fire, rainfall, temperature, wind,
- Page 23 and 24: 3. IDENTIFYING REFUGIA THROUGH SPEC
- Page 25 and 26: this report. These outputs were sum
- Page 27 and 28: more prone to shift their ranges to
- Page 29 and 30: Figure 1: (Left) The areas of Austr
- Page 31 and 32: Figure 2: The absolute change (left
- Page 33 and 34: The binary models showing the 10 th
- Page 35 and 36: slight decreases, in temperature ar
- Page 37 and 38: increase in precipitation, and for
- Page 39 and 40: Figure 12: The distance (km) an org
- Page 41 and 42: 3.4.7.1 Model performance Performan
- Page 43 and 44: Figure 17: Species richness across
- Page 45 and 46: 3.4.7.4 Species movement The projec
- Page 47 and 48: Figure 21: The ‘Immigrants’ and
- Page 49 and 50: Figure 23: The immigrants and emigr
- Page 51 and 52: Figure 25: The areas with the highe
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Figure 27: The aggregation of the 9
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Cape York Peninsula, and central Au
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Figure 28 shows the same protected
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Figure 32: A detailed view of the p
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efugia, but not for the species tha
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4. CASE STUDY 1: ASSESSING REFUGIAL
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these effects by linking several re
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stations are often situated in area
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Atlas of Living Australia (Table 3)
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to 9 second (250 m) resolution for
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• a sample of 20 000 cells within
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Models of compositional turnover in
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Figure 39: Refugial potential based
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Figure 42: Refugial potential avera
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Figure 45: Enlarged portion (Wet Tr
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Figure 47: Enlarged portion (Tasman
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4.4.2.1 Refugial potential - NSW 3-
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4.5 Discussion Although computation
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5. CASE STUDY 2: PLEISTOCENE STABIL
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Figure 52: Distribution of rainfore
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determined, it would be more likely
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comparative phylogeography of the A
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ainforest through climate cycles; s
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5.5.2 Richness and endemism 5.5.2.1
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Figure 57: Rainforest specialist sp
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Australian Wet Tropics Mid East Que
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Table 6: Principle areas of endemis
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York, where richness is much lower
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6. CASE STUDY 3: DROUGHT REFUGIA IN
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These values are based on the aggre
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Figure 63: Long-term average monthl
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7. CASE STUDY 4. USING CONSERVATION
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7.3.3 Uncertainty analysis If each
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7.4.1 Connectivity analysis When th
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8. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS 8.1 C
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the refugial areas predicted by the
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8.2 Further considerations Even tho
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logical step to complete this proje
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Blois, J. L., J. W. Williams, M. C.
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J. Soberón, S. Williams, M. S. Wis
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Hungerford, R. D., R. R. Nemani, S.
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Moritz, C., L. Joseph, M. Cunningha
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Shaw, M. W. 1995. Simulation of pop
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Williams, S. E. 1996. Distributions
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Table A1-3: Representative Concentr
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giss- component) GISS ModelE-H and
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APPENDIX 2. CLIMATE STABILITY Table
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Figure A2-69. The novelty of future
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Figure A2-71. The novelty of future
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Figure A2-73. The distance an organ
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Table A2-7. The area for which ther
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The lowest change in species richne
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Species Richness scaled by range si
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APPENDIX 5. PROJECTING ETA UNDER CL
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ABSTRACT Climate change presents a
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change, we expect the development o
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Figure A5-1: Remotely sensed annual
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Projection of actual evaporation Ac
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Rather than directly apply the scal
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Figure A5-9: Projected ETa for the
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Figure A5-11: Western Tasmania. Pro
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Gnanadesikan, A; Dixon, Keith W.; G
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Group Short name Name Units Source
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Group Short name Name Units Source
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Group Short name Name Units Source
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Mckenzie NJ, Jacquier DW, L.J. A, C
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Biological data The continental ana
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lower deviance explained) at a site
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ANUCLIM 6.1 software (Xu & Hutchins
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Table A7-12. Overall relative impor
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a) c) Figure A7-77. Continental Aus
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a) c) Figure A7-79. Continental Aus
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a) c) Figure A7-81. Continental Aus
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a) c) Figure A7-83. Continental Aus
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a) c) Figure A7-85. Continental Aus
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a) c) Figure A7-87. Continental Aus
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a) c) Figure A7-89. Continental Aus
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Regional 3-second gridded models Fo
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a) c) Figure A7-91. Eastern Austral
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Local 1-second gridded models The m
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a) c) Figure A7-93. Tingle Mosaic s
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Discussion We developed 15 continen
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Jackson ST, Betancourt JL, Booth RK
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Figure A8-2. Stability of the clima
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APPENDIX 9. CONSERVATION PLANNING S
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Egernia frerei EGEFRER REPT Scincid
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Ducula bicolor PIPIG BIRD Columbida
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APPENDIX 10. CONSERVATION PLANNING