Livelihood Security: Climate change, conflict and migration in - UNEP

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1. Introduction Building on his 2009 report on Climate Change and its Possible Security Implications, UN Secretary- General Ban Ki-moon declared in the Security Council in July 2011 that “climate change not only exacerbates threats to international peace and security; 6 it is a threat to international peace and security.” His statement echoed those of many in the international community who view with growing concern the potential impacts on national security of such phenomena as sea-level rise, extreme weather events and increasing resource scarcity. The Security Council debate, in which 65 speakers took the floor, marked an important shift for the topic in international fora – from the margins of the environmental community to the heart of the security agenda. In 2008, as the UN system undertook to better understand the potential threat of climate change for international stability, the Secretary-General deployed his then Special Advisor on Conflict Prevention and Resolution, Jan Egeland, to the Sahel, a region dubbed “ground zero” for climate change 7 due to its extreme climatic conditions and highly vulnerable population. Stretching 3,860 km across the African continent, the Sahel faces numerous wars and civil conflicts, increasing population pressures, and pervasive poverty and aid dependency. Conducted together with experts from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and other agencies in June 2008, Egeland’s mission highlighted three key areas: (i) the risks posed by the potential impacts of climate change for livelihoods in the Sahel, in particular for livelihoods that are dependent on natural resources, such as farming, fishing and herding; (ii) increasing migration pressures due to disasters, conflicts, and the associated loss of livelihoods; and (iii) escalating tension and potential conflicts over increasingly scarce natural resources, coupled with the availability of small arms and light weapons. 8 While underscoring the need for greater investment in climate change adaptation, these findings called for further research and analysis on historical climate trends in the region, in order to understand 12 how livelihoods have been affected, what coping mechanisms have emerged and the potential impacts for conflict and migration. This report answers this call. Aimed at supporting Member States in the region, as well as adaptation practitioners worldwide, this study provides a timely contribution to policy-making as adaptation financing is increasing. Mechanisms like the newly created United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Green Fund, for example, are expected to mobilize up to US$ 100 billion a year by 2020 to help developing countries adapt to the effects of climate change, while multi-million dollar projects such as the much publicized Great Green Wall seek to reduce poverty by addressing severe environmental degradation and climate change impacts across a 7,000 km stretch of the African continent. Given the growing number of complex humanitarian situations in the countries at hand, the report will also be of interest to practitioners working in the field of conflict prevention, conflict resolution and peacebuilding. This study was authored by UNEP in cooperation with the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and the United Nations University (UNU). The Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS), which represents the nine Sahelian countries of Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Chad, the Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Senegal, provided critical technical support. 9 The collaboration with CILSS determined the core geographical scope of the study. However, given the nature of migratory patterns and economic trade in these countries, as well as the transboundary nature of climate change, eight neighbouring members of the Economic Commission of West African States (ECOWAS), were also considered: Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Togo. As this study does not cover all the countries of the Sahel, “the region” refers to the 17 countries identified above, as illustrated in Map 1. Livelihood Security: Climate Change, Migration and Conflict in the Sahel
25°0'N 20°0'N 15°0'N 10°0'N 5°0'N 0°0' Dakar Saint-Louis ! T h e G a m b i a Nouakchott Map 1 . Geographical area covered in this study " ! W a d i Khatt Atoui " ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! " ! " ! " ! ! " ! ! " ! ! Thies " Diourbel Kayes Mopti Mbour Kaolack Zinder Serre Kunda Niamey Banjul Ségou Maradi ! " Sokoto Bamako Ziguinchor Katsina " Ouagadougou " Gusau Bissau Kano ! G u i n e a - B i s s a u 15°0'W S e n e g a l 15°0'W Saloum Conakry C a p e V e r d e Gambia " ! Freetown S e neg a l " ! ! Praia Scale: 1:7,000,000 0 50 km 100 M a u r i t a n i a Guinea Sierra Leone Sewa Ba f in g Monrovia " ! Niger 10°0'W B akoy Liberia Nuo n Cavally Sikasso ! Bobo Dioulasso ! 1.1 Objectives and methodology This report has two complementary objectives: 1) To analyze the historical climate trends in the region, identify hotspots, and determine the potential implications for natural resourcedependent livelihoods; 2) To provide recommendations for improving conflict and migration sensitivity in adaptation planning, investments and policies across the region. The report’s findings and recommendations are based on a unique mapping process analyzing climate trends over a 24 to 36-year period in the 17 countries included in the geographical scope of the study. The maps, which were produced through a technical cooperation with the University of Salzburg’s Centre for Geoinformatics, focus on four climate indicators based on the best available data: Sassandra Bani Bandama Blanc 5°0'W Côte d'Ivoire Bouaké " Koss ou Res ervoir ! Yamoussoukro Abidjan " Ghana La ke Kumasi Volta " Ashiaman ! " ! Accra ! Takoradi " Iseyin ! Oshogbo Makurdi " Ede " ! ! " Ado Okene Cameroon ! ! ! ! Iwo " Abomey " ! Ibadan Ife Ngaoundéré ! Ilesha Akure ! ! ! " ! ! Ikire Owo CILSS member states Abeokuta Cotonou Lagos Ondo ! Ikorodu Enugu ! " " " " Benin " ! " Porto-Novo Onitsha Major Bamenda urban centres Lomé ! Warri Umuahia " > 1,000,000 " ! ! Aba Ikot Ekpene " ! Bafoussam " > 500,000 - 1,000,000 Port Harcourt " ! > 250,000 - 500,000 " Calabar Bertoua ! > 100,000 - 250,000 (CILSS) ! Douala ! Malabo " < 100,000 (capitals) " ! ! Equatorial Dakar Capitals Yaoundé Guinea CILSS countries Atlantic Ocean Livelihood Security: Climate Change, Migration and Conflict in the Sahel B lack Volta Komoe Niger 0 250 500 km 1.000 10°0'W Bandama La ke Fa guibine 5°0'W Black Volta M a l i White Volta B u r k i n a F a s o Red Volta 0°0' ! Tamale 0°0' Vallée d u Tilemsi Wadi Tamanrasset Oti Volta Niger Togo Benin Algeria Vallée de l'Azaouak W a di Bosso Ogbomosho 5°0'E Wadi Irharrhar Wad i Tam anrasset Kainji La ke 5°0'E Niger Arlit ! Agadez ! Zaria Kaduna " " Jos " Minna ! Abuja ! Nigeria Sao Tome and Principe Cross Wadi Tafassasset N i g e r Katsi n a Ala 10°0'E Wadi Tegouma Bauchi ! ! Damaturu Wadi Dillia Gombe Mubi ! ! ! Jimeta " Garoua " Bangui " ! Bangui Background vector data: ESRI; FAO GeoNetwork; GAUL; GRUMP (alpha) Scale (main map): 1:17,000,000 for DIN A4 prints " ! Background satellite data: NASA Blue Marble (2001) Reference system: Geographic coordinates Datum: World Geodetic System 1984 (WGS 84) Ogooué B enue Sanaga Equatorial Guinea Komadugu Gana Base map Sanaga Iv in d o D ja Maiduguri precipitation (1970-2006), temperature (1970- 2006), occurrence of drought (1982-2009), and occurrence of flooding (1985-2009). The potential impact of projected sea-level rise in the region is also mapped. The data is then combined to identify potential “hotspots,” including areas where the most extreme changes in the four individual climate indicators have taken place, as well as areas where the most cumulative change in these four climate indicators has occurred. Each map includes two additional layers showing population trends and conflict occurrence during the same time periods. Secondary sources and case studies are used to explore the challenges that livelihoods in the region face in relation to the climate trends observed in the mapping process, and how these changes may link to migration and conflict dynamics. On the basis of the research described above, this report examines the relationship between climate change, migration, and conflict, highlighting areas of particular interest or where further research is " ! ! Maroua Libya Moundou ! Congo Bahr el Ghazal C h a d Bahr Salamat Sarh ! Wa di Te li Basal Wadi H aw ach Central African Republic Map description: Map production: Gabon Map gives an overview of the location of the CILSS (Permanent Inter-State Centre for Geoinformatics (Z_GIS), Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel) member states. University of Salzburg, Austria, October 2010 O gooue Dja N'Djamena Ngoko Alim a Congo Sang h a Oubangui (Ubangi) Giri Congo Giri Giri Congo Congo Congo Congo Ikele m b a Ruki C ongo Lulonga Oubangui (Ubangi) Data sources: Cartographic information: Libreville 10°0'E Ivindo 15°0'E La ke Chad Alima 15°0'E Ch a ri Logone Sang h a Congo O uham 20°0'E Land cover Major wadis (non-perennial) Major rivers (perennial) Waterbodies Vegetation Bare land B usira 20°0'E Congo Lopori Maringa Congo Salon ga Bolombo Yekokora Tshuapa Lomela Salonga Itimb iri Maringa Tshuapa 13 Lomela Itimbiri Congo ´ Congo 25°0'N 20°0'N 15°0'N " 10°0'N 5°0'N U ele 0°0'
Page 1 and 2: Livelihood Security Climate Change,
Page 3 and 4: Livelihood Security Climate Change,
Page 5 and 6: Figures Figure 1. Conceptual framew
Page 7 and 8: Preface by the Permanent Interstate
Page 9 and 10: Executive Summary “Competition be
Page 11 and 12: Livelihoods that depend on natural
Page 13: tion are regional in nature, and as
Page 17 and 18: conflict, migration and ultimately
Page 19 and 20: A young boy tills the soil in Mali,
Page 21 and 22: 25°0'N 20°0'N 15°0'N 10°0'N 5°
Page 23 and 24: Box 1 . Forest-based livelihoods Ma
Page 25 and 26: Adverse changes in the environment,
Page 27 and 28: Conflicts in the region have result
Page 29 and 30: successive droughts, greater rain v
Page 31 and 32: 3. Mapping historical climate trend
Page 33 and 34: Box 4 . Data limitations A major ch
Page 35 and 36: Algeria Wadi Irharrhar Arlit ! Agad
Page 37 and 38: Figure 4 . Mean seasonal rainfall i
Page 39 and 40: " ! Niamey Benin bomey Algeria Vall
Page 41 and 42: These events undermine crop yields
Page 43 and 44: _ _ _ _ _ _ ! ! ! ! _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Page 45 and 46: _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Page 47 and 48: Dakar T h e a m b i a Nouakchott Ba
Page 49 and 50: In combination with volatile global
Page 51 and 52: 49 Livelihood Security: Climate Cha
Page 53 and 54: Wadi Irharrhar Arlit ! Agadez ! _ 1
Page 55 and 56: area of this report (hotspots 3, 7,
Page 57 and 58: countries covered in this report, t
Page 59 and 60: lakes, rivers and coastal regions w
Page 61 and 62: Case study 4: Flooding and migratio
Page 63 and 64: farmers have become livestock-keepe
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Case study 7: Best practices in ada
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5. Improving adaptation planning in
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with regards to ethnicity or gender
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(discussed in Box 7). In 2010 alone
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6. Conclusions and recommendations
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tion risk, help prioritize adaptati
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• • • focus on the most vulne
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Annexes Annex 1 . Acronyms . . . .
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NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospher
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Livelihood security Livelihood secu
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ated to increase processing time. B
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Benin (BEN) Burkina Faso (BFA) Cape
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NESDIS-STAR - GRIDDED GLOBAL VEGETA
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Weaknesses of the dataset: • •
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Seasonal temperature trend (1970-20
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Areas affected by flooding (1985-20
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Annex 8. Adapting to change: Lesson
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Annex 9. References 1 UN Office for
Page 101 and 102:
51 Wane, A. (2006). Review of the l
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102 International Organization for
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152 International Organization of M
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203 Waqo, H. & Rachael, O. (2008, 1
Page 109 and 110:
Annex 10. Acknowledgements Primary
Page 111 and 112:
www.unep.org/conflictsanddisasters
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