Livelihood Security: Climate change, conflict and migration in - UNEP

conflict, migration and ultimately in broader political
destabilization. Non-climate factors, however,
such as political, economic and social factors,
as well as increasing demographic pressure and
environmental degradation, also play a significant
role in influencing any result. As a consequence,
adaptation policies that are sensitive to migration
issues and conflict risk, and promote sound
governance of natural resources and sustainable
development, have the potential to minimize the
threats posed by climate change.
While noting that socio-economic variables play
a stronger role than the environment in triggering
conflict in the Sahel, 11 the the Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development (OECD) has
found some statistical indication of the role climate
variability may have. 12 Indeed, a recent report by
the organization identifies two main “transmission
mechanisms” between climate variables and
security in the Sahel: food security and livelihoods. 13
The report notes that these transmission mechanisms
are derived from two main characteristics,
namely the direct impact of climate variability on
livelihoods and food security, as well as their sensitivity
to sudden-onset disasters. 14 The report further
notes that “the great vulnerability of the Sahelian
population to climate change is linked to its high
dependence on agricultural activities and absence
of alternative income earning activities.” 15
Report structure
Following this introduction, Chapter 2 provides
background on the region, including a socio-economic
profile, a brief history of conflict, population
trends, and an overview of natural resource-based
livelihoods and the use of migration as a traditional
adaptation strategy.
The historical analysis of climate trends in the
region is presented in Chapter 3 through five
regional maps. Four of the maps show changes in
temperature, rainfall, flooding, and drought over
time; the fifth illustrates areas that are projected
to be affected by sea-level rise. Following each of
the first four, the potential implications for livelihoods
are discussed. Two concluding synthesis maps
combine the data to identify “hotspots.” The first
shows areas where the most extreme changes in
the four individual climate indicators have taken
place, while the second depicts those affected by
Livelihood Security: Climate Change, Migration and Conflict in the Sahel
Girls seek water during the long dry season,
sometimes travelling 45 kilometers roundtrip in the
pastoral zone of Niger
the most cumulative change in these four climate
indicators.
Chapter 4 brings together the findings of the mapping
process with an analysis of secondary sources
to explore how the observed climate trends could
compound existing vulnerabilities and lead to
forced migration and conflict in the region.
Chapter 5 presents a cursory examination of existing
adaptation plans in the region and discusses the
value of considering issues related to conflict and
migration in the design of new adaptation policies
for risk reduction, prioritization of adaptation investments
and action, and the strengthening of climate
change adaptation capacity.
The final chapter presents the conclusions of this
report and recommendations for improving the
integration of conflict and migration considerations
into adaptation planning, investments and policies
across the region.
© UNU/Julie Snorek
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