Livelihood Security: Climate change, conflict and migration in - UNEP

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In an effort to prevent the desert from reaching fertile land, eucalyptus saplings, resistant to extreme conditions, have been planted to stabilize sand dunes energy, and has adopted a new strategic guideline on the “Reduction of Vulnerability to Climate Change in West Africa.” 223 Policy partnerships for climate change adaptation, however, need to be broadened to involve organizations with specific expertise in natural resources issues. River basin authorities in the region – most notably the Senegal River Basin, Niger Basin Authority and the Lake Chad Basin Commission – can have an important role in strengthening adaptation governance and capacity. These authorities have long promoted activities that are central to adaptation plans, including diversified income-generating activities, improved water management and the modernization of agricultural techniques. 70 Livelihood Security: Climate Change, Migration and Conflict in the Sahel © UN Photo/John Isaac
6. Conclusions and recommendations This report has analyzed historical climate trends across the 17 countries included in the study region and examined how these changes have exacerbated existing vulnerabilities. In particular, the study has sought to examine the link between the impacts of changing climatic conditions on livelihoods in the region and behavioural responses such as conflict and migration. On the basis of the findings of the mapping process and information gathered from existing literature, case studies and field observation, as well as an overview of existing adaptation plans in the countries of concern, this report reaches five main conclusions, summarized below. As a result, seven principal recommendations are presented to national, regional and international policy and decision-makers, as well as adaptation practitioners in the region. The UN system can also address many of the issues highlighted in the recommendations through its specialized agencies and programmes. 6.1 Conclusions 1) Climatic change trends can be observed over the last 40 years in the Sahel in temperature, rainfall, and occurrence of flooding across the study region. In addition, the recurrence of drought and the potential severe impacts of sea-level rise are increasing livelihood vulnerability: • • There has been a general increase in mean temperature in the region of 1°C. Nearly 50 per cent of the population in the CILSS countries has experienced an increase of between 0.5-1°C and 15 per cent of the population has seen an increase of more than 1°C. Flooding has increased in frequency and severity in terms of the size of the impacted land area, affecting large numbers of people in the region. The area has also experienced more extended periods of inundation. Since 1985, 54 per cent of the CILSS population has been affected by five or more floods. Livelihood Security: Climate Change, Migration and Conflict in the Sahel • • • Precipitation has increased in many parts of the region. Data, however, is lacking in respect to the intensity and duration of the rainfall. The area has experienced recurrent and severe drought since the 1970s, which has had a very significant impact on livelihoods. Estimated sea-level rise of up to 1 m would affect over 3 million people in the region. 2) Changes in climatic conditions are exacerbating issues linked to the availability of natural resources essential to livelihoods in the region, as well as food insecurity. Along with important social, economic and political factors, this can lead to migration and conflict: • • • Changing climatic conditions most impact livelihoods that are directly dependent on the environment, for example through the decrease in agricultural yields, gradual unsuitability of traditional grazing grounds, drying of important water bodies or the increase in various diseases. The landlocked countries in the study region (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali and Niger) produce the majority of the region’s cereals and export to neighbouring countries. Increasing uncertainty about rainfall and the recurrence of droughts and flooding threaten food production in the region. For example, Niger was assessed in 2005 as having 2.4 million people highly vulnerable to food insecurity, including nearly 900,000 facing extreme food insecurity and 1.2 million requiring food aid. Livelihood vulnerability is linked to many non-climate factors, such as unequal land distribution, insecure land tenure, poorly developed markets, existing trade barriers and inadequate infrastructure. Underlying all of these factors is the role 71
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Livelihood Security Climate Change,
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Livelihood Security Climate Change,
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Figures Figure 1. Conceptual framew
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Preface by the Permanent Interstate
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Executive Summary “Competition be
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Livelihoods that depend on natural
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tion are regional in nature, and as
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25°0'N 20°0'N 15°0'N 10°0'N 5°
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conflict, migration and ultimately
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A young boy tills the soil in Mali,
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Livelihood Security: Climate change, conflict and migration in - UNEP

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