Livelihood Security: Climate change, conflict and migration in - UNEP

6. Conclusions and recommendations
This report has analyzed historical climate trends
across the 17 countries included in the study region
and examined how these changes have exacerbated
existing vulnerabilities. In particular, the study
has sought to examine the link between the impacts
of changing climatic conditions on livelihoods in the
region and behavioural responses such as conflict
and migration. On the basis of the findings of the
mapping process and information gathered from
existing literature, case studies and field observation,
as well as an overview of existing adaptation
plans in the countries of concern, this report
reaches five main conclusions, summarized below.
As a result, seven principal recommendations are
presented to national, regional and international
policy and decision-makers, as well as adaptation
practitioners in the region. The UN system can
also address many of the issues highlighted in the
recommendations through its specialized agencies
and programmes.
6.1 Conclusions
1) Climatic change trends can be observed over
the last 40 years in the Sahel in temperature,
rainfall, and occurrence of flooding across the
study region. In addition, the recurrence of
drought and the potential severe impacts of
sea-level rise are increasing livelihood vulnerability:
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There has been a general increase in mean
temperature in the region of 1°C. Nearly
50 per cent of the population in the CILSS
countries has experienced an increase of
between 0.5-1°C and 15 per cent of the
population has seen an increase of more
than 1°C.
Flooding has increased in frequency and
severity in terms of the size of the impacted
land area, affecting large numbers of people
in the region. The area has also experienced
more extended periods of inundation. Since
1985, 54 per cent of the CILSS population has
been affected by five or more floods.
Livelihood Security: Climate Change, Migration and Conflict in the Sahel
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Precipitation has increased in many parts
of the region. Data, however, is lacking in
respect to the intensity and duration of the
rainfall.
The area has experienced recurrent and
severe drought since the 1970s, which
has had a very significant impact on
livelihoods.
Estimated sea-level rise of up to 1 m would
affect over 3 million people in the region.
2) Changes in climatic conditions are exacerbating
issues linked to the availability of natural
resources essential to livelihoods in the region,
as well as food insecurity. Along with important
social, economic and political factors, this can
lead to migration and conflict:
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Changing climatic conditions most impact
livelihoods that are directly dependent on
the environment, for example through the
decrease in agricultural yields, gradual
unsuitability of traditional grazing grounds,
drying of important water bodies or the
increase in various diseases.
The landlocked countries in the study region
(Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali and Niger) produce
the majority of the region’s cereals and
export to neighbouring countries. Increasing
uncertainty about rainfall and the recurrence
of droughts and flooding threaten food
production in the region. For example,
Niger was assessed in 2005 as having 2.4
million people highly vulnerable to food
insecurity, including nearly 900,000 facing
extreme food insecurity and 1.2 million
requiring food aid.
Livelihood vulnerability is linked to many
non-climate factors, such as unequal
land distribution, insecure land tenure,
poorly developed markets, existing trade
barriers and inadequate infrastructure.
Underlying all of these factors is the role
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