Livelihood Security: Climate change, conflict and migration in - UNEP

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Figure 1 . Conceptual framework needed. In no way does it argue that climate change acts as a single and isolated factor in migration or conflict, nor does it attempt to show a direct causal link between these three issues. Climate change, migration and conflict, rather, are interlinked through complex influencing factors that include economic, social, and political issues. 1.2 Conceptual framework The conceptual framework underlying this study, illustrated in Figure 1 above, builds on that of the 2009 report of the UN Secretary-General on Climate Change and its Possible Security Implications, which identifies five channels through which climate change could affect security: 10 • • 14 CLIMATE CHANGE NON CLIMATE FACTORS Economic Social Political Demographic pressure Land degradation Vulnerability: Climate change threatens food security and human health, and increases human exposure to extreme events. Development: If climate change slows down or reverses the development process, the resulting increased vulnerability may undermine the capacity of States to maintain stability. • • • IMPACTS (temperature, rainfall, drought flood, sea-level rise) Vulnerability Food security Water security Health issues Threat multiplier Natural resource availability Possible responses/outcomes Migration Resource competition Political destabilization Conflict Coping and security: Migration, competition over natural resources, and other coping responses of households and communities faced with climate-related threats could increase the risk of domestic conflict and have international repercussions. Statelessness: There are implications for rights, security, and sovereignty of the loss of statehood because of the disappearance of territory. International conflict: The impact of climate change on shared or un-demarcated international resources may affect international cooperation. The first three pathways provide the most relevant approach to conceiving of the linkages between climate change and security in the context of the Sahel: climate change impacts such as temperature rise, increasing variability in rainfall, more frequent droughts and floods and sealevel rise risk compounding existing vulnerabilities, leading to: (i) greater food and water insecurity, as well as health issues and (ii) changes in natural resource availability. Both impacts could in turn result in competition for resources, local-level Livelihood Security: Climate Change, Migration and Conflict in the Sahel
conflict, migration and ultimately in broader political destabilization. Non-climate factors, however, such as political, economic and social factors, as well as increasing demographic pressure and environmental degradation, also play a significant role in influencing any result. As a consequence, adaptation policies that are sensitive to migration issues and conflict risk, and promote sound governance of natural resources and sustainable development, have the potential to minimize the threats posed by climate change. While noting that socio-economic variables play a stronger role than the environment in triggering conflict in the Sahel, 11 the the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has found some statistical indication of the role climate variability may have. 12 Indeed, a recent report by the organization identifies two main “transmission mechanisms” between climate variables and security in the Sahel: food security and livelihoods. 13 The report notes that these transmission mechanisms are derived from two main characteristics, namely the direct impact of climate variability on livelihoods and food security, as well as their sensitivity to sudden-onset disasters. 14 The report further notes that “the great vulnerability of the Sahelian population to climate change is linked to its high dependence on agricultural activities and absence of alternative income earning activities.” 15 Report structure Following this introduction, Chapter 2 provides background on the region, including a socio-economic profile, a brief history of conflict, population trends, and an overview of natural resource-based livelihoods and the use of migration as a traditional adaptation strategy. The historical analysis of climate trends in the region is presented in Chapter 3 through five regional maps. Four of the maps show changes in temperature, rainfall, flooding, and drought over time; the fifth illustrates areas that are projected to be affected by sea-level rise. Following each of the first four, the potential implications for livelihoods are discussed. Two concluding synthesis maps combine the data to identify “hotspots.” The first shows areas where the most extreme changes in the four individual climate indicators have taken place, while the second depicts those affected by Livelihood Security: Climate Change, Migration and Conflict in the Sahel Girls seek water during the long dry season, sometimes travelling 45 kilometers roundtrip in the pastoral zone of Niger the most cumulative change in these four climate indicators. Chapter 4 brings together the findings of the mapping process with an analysis of secondary sources to explore how the observed climate trends could compound existing vulnerabilities and lead to forced migration and conflict in the region. Chapter 5 presents a cursory examination of existing adaptation plans in the region and discusses the value of considering issues related to conflict and migration in the design of new adaptation policies for risk reduction, prioritization of adaptation investments and action, and the strengthening of climate change adaptation capacity. The final chapter presents the conclusions of this report and recommendations for improving the integration of conflict and migration considerations into adaptation planning, investments and policies across the region. © UNU/Julie Snorek 15
Page 1 and 2: Livelihood Security Climate Change,
Page 3 and 4: Livelihood Security Climate Change,
Page 5 and 6: Figures Figure 1. Conceptual framew
Page 7 and 8: Preface by the Permanent Interstate
Page 9 and 10: Executive Summary “Competition be
Page 11 and 12: Livelihoods that depend on natural
Page 13 and 14: tion are regional in nature, and as
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Page 19 and 20: A young boy tills the soil in Mali,
Page 21 and 22: 25°0'N 20°0'N 15°0'N 10°0'N 5°
Page 23 and 24: Box 1 . Forest-based livelihoods Ma
Page 25 and 26: Adverse changes in the environment,
Page 27 and 28: Conflicts in the region have result
Page 29 and 30: successive droughts, greater rain v
Page 31 and 32: 3. Mapping historical climate trend
Page 33 and 34: Box 4 . Data limitations A major ch
Page 35 and 36: Algeria Wadi Irharrhar Arlit ! Agad
Page 37 and 38: Figure 4 . Mean seasonal rainfall i
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Page 61 and 62: Case study 4: Flooding and migratio
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5. Improving adaptation planning in
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with regards to ethnicity or gender
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(discussed in Box 7). In 2010 alone
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6. Conclusions and recommendations
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tion risk, help prioritize adaptati
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• • • focus on the most vulne
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Annexes Annex 1 . Acronyms . . . .
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NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospher
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Livelihood security Livelihood secu
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ated to increase processing time. B
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Benin (BEN) Burkina Faso (BFA) Cape
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NESDIS-STAR - GRIDDED GLOBAL VEGETA
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Weaknesses of the dataset: • •
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Seasonal temperature trend (1970-20
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Areas affected by flooding (1985-20
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Annex 8. Adapting to change: Lesson
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Annex 9. References 1 UN Office for
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51 Wane, A. (2006). Review of the l
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102 International Organization for
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152 International Organization of M
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203 Waqo, H. & Rachael, O. (2008, 1
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Annex 10. Acknowledgements Primary
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www.unep.org/conflictsanddisasters
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Livelihood Security: Climate change, conflict and migration in - UNEP

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