Livelihood Security: Climate change, conflict and migration in - UNEP

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influence the decision to migrate. However, with climate change threatening the integrity of ecosystems that are already made vulnerable by a rapidly growing population, it is evident that this situation will exacerbate competition over natural resources and trigger movements of people and conflicts. In order to mitigate competition, a regional charter on rural land is being developed at CILSS to take into account the mobility of people and the crossborder nature of certain natural resources such as land, water and forests. Moreover, considering future climate change scenarios and their potential implications on human security, it was necessary to attempt to analyze the impacts of climate change on migration and conflict in order to take efficient counter-action. This 6 is the merit of this publication, which is intended not only as a guide for awareness-raising and a tool to support decision-making at all levels, but also to inform and improve adaptation strategies in the Sahel. Prof. Alhousseïni BRETAUDEAU CILSS Executive Secretary Livelihood Security: Climate Change, Migration and Conflict in the Sahel
Executive Summary “Competition between communities and countries for scarce resources, especially water, is increasing, exacerbating old security dilemmas and creating new ones, while environmental refugees are reshaping the human geography of the planet, a trend that will only increase as deserts advance, forests are felled and sea levels rise.” By formulating such a strong statement during the July 2011 debate on climate change and security in the UN Security Council, UN Secretary-General Ban Kimoon underscored the urgent need to assess the implications of climate change for conflicts and environmentally induced migration. Dubbed “ground zero” for climate change due to its extreme climatic conditions and highly vulnerable population, the Sahel has faced massive population growth, pervasive poverty, food insecurity, and chronic instability for decades. With a majority of the population directly dependent on natural resources for its livelihood, the predicted impacts of climate change for resource availability and food security in the region could be dramatic. A mission undertaken to the Sahel in June 2008 by Jan Egeland, then Special Advisor to the UN Secretary-General for Conflict Prevention and Resolution, highlighted three main risks: (i) the threat posed by the potential impacts of climate change for livelihoods, in particular for livelihoods that are dependent on natural resources, such as farming, fishing and herding; (ii) increasing migration pressures due to disasters, conflicts and the associated loss of livelihoods; and (iii) escalating tension and potential conflicts over increasingly scarce natural resources, coupled with the availability of small arms and light weapons. These findings called for further research and analysis on historical climate trends in the Sahel, in order to understand more about how livelihoods were being affected, what coping mechanisms were emerging, and how these changes related to behavioural responses such as conflict and migration. This report, which was authored by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) in cooperation with the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the Livelihood Security: Climate Change, Migration and Conflict in the Sahel Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and the United Nations University (UNU), as well as the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS), provides an initial response to this call. Aimed at supporting policy and decision-makers in the Member States of the region, adaptation and peacebuilding practitioners worldwide, as well as ongoing international climate change negotiations, this study has two complementary objectives: (i) to analyze the historical climate trends in the region, identify hotspots, and determine the potential implications for natural resource-dependent livelihoods; and (ii) to provide recommendations for improving conflict and migration sensitivity in adaptation planning, investments and policies across the region. The report presents the findings of a unique mapping process analyzing climate trends over a 24 to 36-year period in 17 countries, from the Atlantic coast to Chad. The nine countries represented by CILSS – Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Chad, the Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Senegal – determined the core geographical scope of the study. However, given the transboundary nature of climate change, as well as migratory patterns and economic trade in these countries, eight neighbouring members of the Economic Commission of West African States (ECOWAS) – Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Togo – are also included in the analysis. The maps, which were produced through a technical cooperation with the University of Salzburg’s Centre for Geoinformatics, focus on four climate indicators based on the best available data: precipitation (1970-2006), temperature (1970- 2006), occurrence of drought (1982-2009), and occurrence of flooding (1985-2009). The potential impact of projected sea-level rise in the region is also mapped. The data is then combined to identify potential “hotspots,” including areas where the most extreme changes in the four individual climate indicators have taken place, as well as areas where the most cumulative change in these four climate indicators has occurred. Each map includes two 7
Page 1 and 2: Livelihood Security Climate Change,
Page 3 and 4: Livelihood Security Climate Change,
Page 5 and 6: Figures Figure 1. Conceptual framew
Page 7: Preface by the Permanent Interstate
Page 11 and 12: Livelihoods that depend on natural
Page 13 and 14: tion are regional in nature, and as
Page 15 and 16: 25°0'N 20°0'N 15°0'N 10°0'N 5°
Page 17 and 18: conflict, migration and ultimately
Page 19 and 20: A young boy tills the soil in Mali,
Page 21 and 22: 25°0'N 20°0'N 15°0'N 10°0'N 5°
Page 23 and 24: Box 1 . Forest-based livelihoods Ma
Page 25 and 26: Adverse changes in the environment,
Page 27 and 28: Conflicts in the region have result
Page 29 and 30: successive droughts, greater rain v
Page 31 and 32: 3. Mapping historical climate trend
Page 33 and 34: Box 4 . Data limitations A major ch
Page 35 and 36: Algeria Wadi Irharrhar Arlit ! Agad
Page 37 and 38: Figure 4 . Mean seasonal rainfall i
Page 39 and 40: " ! Niamey Benin bomey Algeria Vall
Page 41 and 42: These events undermine crop yields
Page 43 and 44: _ _ _ _ _ _ ! ! ! ! _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Page 45 and 46: _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Page 47 and 48: Dakar T h e a m b i a Nouakchott Ba
Page 49 and 50: In combination with volatile global
Page 51 and 52: 49 Livelihood Security: Climate Cha
Page 53 and 54: Wadi Irharrhar Arlit ! Agadez ! _ 1
Page 55 and 56: area of this report (hotspots 3, 7,
Page 57 and 58: countries covered in this report, t
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lakes, rivers and coastal regions w
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Case study 4: Flooding and migratio
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farmers have become livestock-keepe
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Case study 7: Best practices in ada
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5. Improving adaptation planning in
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with regards to ethnicity or gender
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(discussed in Box 7). In 2010 alone
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6. Conclusions and recommendations
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tion risk, help prioritize adaptati
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• • • focus on the most vulne
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Annexes Annex 1 . Acronyms . . . .
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NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospher
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Livelihood security Livelihood secu
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ated to increase processing time. B
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Benin (BEN) Burkina Faso (BFA) Cape
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NESDIS-STAR - GRIDDED GLOBAL VEGETA
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Weaknesses of the dataset: • •
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Seasonal temperature trend (1970-20
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Areas affected by flooding (1985-20
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Annex 8. Adapting to change: Lesson
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Annex 9. References 1 UN Office for
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51 Wane, A. (2006). Review of the l
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102 International Organization for
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152 International Organization of M
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203 Waqo, H. & Rachael, O. (2008, 1
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Annex 10. Acknowledgements Primary
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www.unep.org/conflictsanddisasters
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Livelihood Security: Climate change, conflict and migration in - UNEP

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