Livelihood Security: Climate change, conflict and migration in - UNEP

Figure 7 . Changes in the surface area of Lake Chad (1963-2007)
Source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (2008) 196
Changes in climate and their effect on natural
resources can also lead to greater food insecurity.
The rising cost of food in the region has been a
source of tensions and protest in the past. 185 In
combination with global commodity prices, climate
change threatens local production and the
availability of staples, further increasing the risk of
tensions and conflict. The landlocked countries in
the region produce the majority of the region’s
cereals, comprising more than 87 per cent of
the overall production in the CILSS countries:
Burkina Faso (4,358,519 tonnes in 2008), Chad
(2,018,649 tonnes), Mali (4,814,961 tonnes) and
Niger (4,854,494 tonnes). The coastal States, on the
other hand, produce few cereals and import much
more, with the exception of Nigeria, which produces
more than 50 per cent of all the cereal produced in
West Africa. 197 Changes in temperature and rainfall,
and an increased frequency in the occurrence of
drought and flooding have been observed in each
of these countries, and there have already been
instances of food shortages in nearly all of these
countries. Niger, for example, was assessed in 2005
as having 2.4 million people highly vulnerable to
food insecurity, including nearly 900,000 facing
extreme food insecurity and 1.2 million requiring
food aid. 198 Food shortages, in combination with
increasing global prices of food commodities, have
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led to unrest and even conflict, as seen in the 2008
food riots in Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Mauritania
and Senegal.
4.4 Other responses to changing
climatic conditions in the Sahel
In addition to the three trends discussed in this chapter,
other behavioural changes relating to changing
climatic conditions can also be observed in the
region. Studies have found, for example, that as
the environment becomes unliveable due to cases
of extreme drought or environmental degradation,
unplanned, short-term migration that develops
into a pattern of movement known as “creeping
migration” tends to occur. 199 One such case can be
found in Niger, where the village of Caré is inhabited
by farmers from another village, which had to
be abandoned due to rainfall shortages and soil
degradation. 200 As the recipient village is experiencing
similar problems today, the migrants are now
considering moving onwards to a new location.
Of course, conflict and migration – forced or
otherwise – are not the only possible outcome.
Even as institutions at the international, regional
and national levels grapple with understanding
Livelihood Security: Climate Change, Migration and Conflict in the Sahel