Livelihood Security: Climate change, conflict and migration in - UNEP

Table of contents
Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4
Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7
1 . Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12
1.1 Objectives and methodology ....................................................13
1.2 Conceptual framework .........................................................14
1.3 Report structure ...............................................................15
2 . Regional context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16
2.1 Socio-economic conditions ......................................................16
2.2 Environmental and climatic conditions .............................................18
2.3 Livelihoods: Farmers, herders and fishermen .........................................18
2.4 Natural resource governance ....................................................20
2.5 Migration in the region ..........................................................22
2.6 Conflict in the region ...........................................................25
2.7 Livelihood vulnerability ..........................................................27
3 . Mapping historical climate trends in the Sahel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29
3.1 Mapping historical climate trends in the region .......................................29
3.2 Changes in temperature ........................................................30
3.3 Changes in rainfall .............................................................34
3.4 Occurrence of drought .........................................................38
3.5 Occurrence of flooding .........................................................39
3.6 Areas vulnerable to sea-level rise ..................................................47
3.7 Synthesis maps ................................................................47
4 . Understanding climate-related conflict and migration trends in the Sahel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .54
4.1 Southward migration to cities and the coast .........................................54
4.2 Environmentally induced migration due to rapid-onset disasters ..........................58
4.3 Climate-related conflict over scarce resources .......................................59
4.4. Other responses to changing climatic conditions in the Sahel ...........................62
5 . Improving adaptation planning in the Sahel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65
5.1 Reducing conflict and migration risk through sound adaptation planning ..................65
5.2 Using conflict and migration considerations to prioritize adaptation .......................67
5.3 Capitalizing on conflict and migration management to strengthen adaptation ..............69
6 . Conclusions and recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71
6.1 Conclusions ..................................................................71
6.2 Recommendations ............................................................73
Annexes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .77
Annex 1. Acronyms ...............................................................78
Annex 2. Glossary ................................................................80
Annex 3. Map methodologies ......................................................82
Annex 4. Migration data used (2000-2002) .............................................84
Annex 5. Summary of datasets used .................................................86
Annex 6. Land area and population affected by changes in the four climate indicators used .....90
Annex 7. Population vulnerable to sea-level rise .........................................94
Annex 8. Adapting to change: Lessons from local best practices ...........................95
Annex 9. References ..............................................................97
Annex 10. Acknowledgements ......................................................107